基于Copula函数京津冀区域货运量相关性研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 00:29

本文选题：Copula理论　切入点：货运量　出处：《华北电力大学(北京)》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：京津冀地区是我国政治经济重要的核心区域,良好的地缘优势为京津冀地区物流产业快速发展提供保障。在京津冀区域经济活动中,区域物流起着越来越重要的作用。区域物流是经济活动的命脉之一,是联系制造业生产和消费的服务枢纽,是经济发展和人民生活水平提高的基础保障,也是国家现代化程度的评定标准之一。因此,对京津冀区域物流展开研究具有实际意义。为了对区域物流对区域经济发展的价值有更明确的认知,首先应先了解该区域的物流发展基本情况。由于区域物流发展情况界定复杂并难以衡量,但货运量是可以从整体反映物流水平。因此,本文试图对京津冀地区进行货运量相关性研究,从一种新的角度为京津冀地区物流的规划提出可参考的建议。论文内容主要包括以下几部分:(1)区域物流及货运量的概述。介绍区域物流及区域经济的基本概念和内涵特点,进一步描述区域经济与区域物流的相关关系,界定货运量的基本内涵,分析区域货运量与物流需求量之间的关系。(2)京津冀地区货运量的影响因素相关性分析。通过查阅相关数据与已研究文献,表明目前区域货运量影响因素分析及评价指标选择方面的现状:大部分学者仅仅利用定性分析法,而非科学地,客观地以及定量分析货运量的影响因素,从而无法科学地构建评价货运量的指标体系。本文结合京津冀地区实货运量及相关统计资料,选用Copula理论方法进行相关性分析,Copula理论模型能够较好描述变量间相关关系,构建Copula模型,得到模型参数与相关系数,来得到区域内各省、市内自身影响因素对货运量影响程度高低。进而,延伸至区域各省、市间货运量影响因素分析,以及京津冀整体区域货运量影响因素相关性分析,从小至大,系统地进行研究。(3)京津冀地区货运量与经济相关性分析。区域物流与当地地区经济发展有着紧密的关系,总体整体呈正相关关系,物流的需求和供给能力对当地第一、第二和第三产业经济发展起着推动或制约的作用。仍然以货运量为研究对象,结合京津冀地区其他经济或行业部门,分析该地区货运量与经济之间的影响,利用Copula理论得到Clayton Copula模型为适用模型的结果,应更关注货运量与三大产业增加值共同下跌的程度影响,为以后研究其它行业间相关关系提供信息参考。
[Abstract]:The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is an important core region of our country's political economy. Good geographical advantages provide a guarantee for the rapid development of the logistics industry in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. In the regional economic activities of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Regional logistics plays an increasingly important role. Regional logistics is one of the lifeblood of economic activities, a service hub linked to manufacturing production and consumption, and a basic guarantee for economic development and the improvement of people's living standards. Therefore, it is of practical significance to study the regional logistics of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. In order to have a clearer understanding of the value of regional logistics to the development of regional economy, First of all, we should understand the basic situation of logistics development in the region. Because the development of regional logistics is complex and difficult to measure, but the volume of freight can reflect the level of logistics from the whole. This paper attempts to study the correlation of freight volume in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. From a new angle, the paper puts forward some suggestions for the planning of logistics in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The paper mainly includes the following parts: 1) the overview of regional logistics and freight volume, and introduces the basic concepts and connotative characteristics of regional logistics and regional economy. Further describe the relationship between regional economy and regional logistics, define the basic connotation of freight volume, Analysis of the relationship between regional freight volume and logistics demand. (2) correlation analysis of influencing factors of freight volume in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. It shows that the current situation of influencing factors analysis and evaluation index selection of regional freight volume: most scholars only use qualitative analysis method, but not scientifically, objectively and quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of freight volume. Therefore, it is impossible to construct a scientific index system for evaluating freight volume. This paper, based on the actual freight volume and related statistical data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, chooses the Copula theory method to analyze the correlation between variables, and the Copula theoretical model can better describe the correlation relationship between variables. The Copula model is constructed, and the model parameters and correlation coefficients are obtained to get the influence degree of the regional provinces and the city's own influencing factors on the freight volume. Then, the analysis of the influencing factors of the regional provinces and the intercity freight volume is made. As well as the correlation analysis of the influence factors of the overall regional freight volume of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, from small to large, systematically carry on the analysis of the correlation between the freight volume and the economy of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. The regional logistics has a close relationship with the local economic development. The demand and supply capacity of logistics plays an important role in promoting or restricting the economic development of local first, second and tertiary industries. Combined with other economic or trade sectors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the influence of freight volume and economy in this area is analyzed. The results of Clayton Copula model are obtained by using Copula theory. More attention should be paid to the extent of the decline of freight volume and the value added of the three industries, which will provide information reference for the future study of the relationship between other industries.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学(北京)
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F224;F512.7;F259.27

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