高铁与民航供需影响与均衡定价研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 15:17

本文选题：高铁　切入点：民航　出处：《大连海事大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：截至2016年底,中国高铁总里程已达到2.2万公里,占世界总里程的60%,中国己成为世界高铁大国。由于高铁与民航的客运产品有高度的一致性,高铁的出现对民航在高速客运市场的主导地位构成了挑战。在交通运输部"大部制"以及大力发展"综合交通"的政策背景下,迫切需要对高铁和民航客运市场的供需关系进行研究,并且以系统的角度对二者的发展进行统筹规划。鉴于此,本文对影响高铁和民航客运市场需求和供给的因素进行了定量分析,并计算了供需均衡时的票价。主要研究内容及结论如下:(1)需求影响方面:通过对京沪线高铁与民航旅客进行SP和RP调查,分析京沪线客流构成和旅客出行方式选择行为特征,并基于非集计理论,构建京沪线旅客出行选择的Binary Logit模型,量化各因素对旅客选择的影响程度,并对比了商务出行旅客和休闲出行旅客的出行选择差异。研究结果显示:女性更偏好民航出行;旅客对民航的偏好随着收入的增加、准点率的提升、年龄的降低、同行人数的减少和程前时间的减少而增加;旅客的出行选择随着出发时间的变化而发生较大的变化。(2)供给影响方面:基于2016年3月22日至2016年7月28日的30条国内不同距离航线出发前30天至前1天的130余万条客票信息,构建4个计量回归模型,采用随机效应最小二乘法以及随机效应两阶段最小二乘法,计算高铁与民航的竞争对民航票价和运营频率的影响程度。根据测度,发现运营频率模型中因变量民航运营频率与自变量高铁运营频率之间存在内生性,通过引入工具变量"高铁线路运营年数"与"高铁线路中途停站数"解决了该问题。研究结果显示:在控制了跨期价格歧视、航线特征等其他影响因素后,高铁的运营可引起竞争航线民航票价平均降低42.9%,平均每日航班数减少60.2%;运营频率和总旅途时间是决定运输方式竞争力的重要因素;高铁的运营会改变民航票价在距离上的分布,并影响民航票价的跨期价格歧视;高铁线路运营年数和中途停站数的增多会使该线路高铁运营频率增加。(3)均衡定价方面:根据对高速客运通道内运行机理的分析,构建以票价为决策变量的双层规划博弈模型。上层模型为以客票价格作为决策变量的高铁与民航运营商之间的完全信息动态博弈,下层模型保证用户广义出行费用最小,将上、下层之间的博弈看作Stackelberg博弈,设计基于灵敏度分析的启发式算法对该模型进行求解,并以京沪线的供需数据为算例验证了该模型和算法的有效性。该方法为决策部门进行高铁与民航的整体规划提供了参考。
[Abstract]:By end of 2016, the total mileage of high-speed rail in China had reached 22,000 kilometers, accounting for 60 percent of the world's total mileage. The emergence of high-speed rail poses a challenge to the dominant position of civil aviation in the high-speed passenger transport market. There is an urgent need to study the relationship between supply and demand in the high-speed rail and civil aviation passenger transport markets, and to plan their development from a systematic perspective. In this paper, the factors influencing the demand and supply of high-speed rail and civil aviation passenger transport market are analyzed quantitatively. The main research contents and conclusions are as follows: through the SP and RP investigation of high-speed railway and civil aviation passengers on the Beijing-Shanghai line, this paper analyzes the composition of passenger flow and the behavior characteristics of passenger travel mode selection. Based on the theory of disaggregate, the Binary Logit model of passenger travel choice on Beijing-Shanghai line is constructed to quantify the influence of various factors on passenger choice. The results show that: women prefer to travel by civil aviation; the preference of passengers to civil aviation increases with the increase of income, the increase of punctuality, and the decrease of age. The number of peers decreases and Cheng Qian time decreases and increases; The travel choice of passengers changes greatly with the departure time.) the supply impact is as follows: based on the information of more than 1.3 million tickets from 30 domestic routes with different distances from March 22nd 2016 to July 28th 2016, 30 days before departure and one day before departure, Four econometric regression models are constructed, and the stochastic effect least square method and the stochastic effect two-stage least square method are used to calculate the influence of the competition between high-speed rail and civil aviation on civil aviation fare and operation frequency. It is found that there is an endogenous relationship between the dependent variable civil aviation operating frequency and the independent variable high-speed rail operating frequency in the operational frequency model. This problem is solved by introducing the tool variables "the number of years of high-speed line operation" and "the number of stoppages of high-speed railway line". The results show that after controlling the inter-period price discrimination, route characteristics and other influencing factors, The operation of high-speed rail can lead to an average reduction of 42.9 airline fares and a 60.2 reduction in the average number of daily flights on competitive routes; the frequency of operation and the total travel time are important factors determining the competitiveness of transport modes; and the operation of high-speed trains will change the distribution of civil aviation fares in distance. It also affects the inter-period price discrimination of civil aviation fares. The increase of the number of years of high-speed rail line operation and the number of stoppages will increase the operating frequency of high-speed rail line .Y3) equilibrium pricing: according to the analysis of the operating mechanism of high-speed passenger transport channel, A bilevel programming game model with ticket price as decision variable is constructed. The upper level model is a dynamic game of complete information between high-speed rail and civil aviation operators, which takes ticket price as decision variable. The game between the lower layers is regarded as Stackelberg game. A heuristic algorithm based on sensitivity analysis is designed to solve the model. The validity of the model and algorithm is verified by taking the supply and demand data of Beijing-Shanghai line as an example, which provides a reference for the decision-making department to plan the whole of high-speed rail and civil aviation.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F532;F562

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