交通运输与经济发展关系的研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 02:16

本文选题：交通运输与经济发展　切入点：时间序列模型　出处：《华南理工大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：交通运输是经济发展的重要基础，而经济的发展也是交通运输发展的动力和支持。当两者相互促进，协调发展时，才能促进社会的发展。本文选择了山东省、湖南省和甘肃省作为研究对象，研究交通运输与经济发展的关系，并从两个方面对交通运输与经济发展关系在三个省进行了对比分析，得到了有意义的结论。首先，本文运用协整理论与Granger因果检验及Chow断点检验对山东省、湖南省和甘肃省交通基础设施规模与经济增长的关系进行了分析，结果表明交通基础设施规模与经济增长存在长期的均衡关系，并且大部分情况存在双向因果关系，并依据协整方程和Granger因果关系将交通基础设施规模与经济增长的关系划分为三个阶段，山东省处在第三阶段，湖南省处于第二阶段，甘肃省仍处于第一阶段。并运用Kolmogorov-Smirnov双样本检验对以上阶段划分及三省各时段所处的阶段的合理性进行了验证。然后本文选取2001~2011年的数据，运用了数据包络分析对山东省、湖南省和甘肃省交通运输系统与经济系统之间的关系进行分析，发现就交通运输对经济发展的适应性而言，山东省最好，湖南省次之，甘肃省最差，就经济对交通运输的支持力度而言，甘肃省最大，湖南省次之，，山东省最小。最后，结合对三个省的研究结论，对各省的交通运输与经济发展关系提出对策建议。
[Abstract]:Transportation is the important foundation of economic development, and economic development is also the motive force and support of transportation development. When the two promote each other and develop harmoniously, they can promote the development of society. This paper chooses Shandong Province, Hunan Province and Gansu Province as the research objects, studies the relationship between transportation and economic development, and makes a comparative analysis on the relationship between transportation and economic development in three provinces from two aspects. A meaningful conclusion has been drawn. Firstly, this paper analyzes the relationship between the scale of traffic infrastructure and economic growth in Shandong, Hunan and Gansu provinces by using cointegration theory, Granger causality test and Chow breakpoint test. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the scale of transportation infrastructure and economic growth, and in most cases there is a two-way causal relationship. According to the co-integration equation and Granger causality, the relationship between traffic infrastructure scale and economic growth is divided into three stages: Shandong Province is in the third stage, Hunan Province is in the second stage. Gansu Province is still in the first stage, and the rationality of the above stages is verified by Kolmogorov-Smirnov double sample test. Then this paper selects the data from 2001 to 2011 and analyzes the relationship between transportation system and economic system in Shandong, Hunan and Gansu provinces by using data envelopment analysis. It is found that the adaptability of transportation to economic development is concerned. Shandong Province is the best, Hunan Province is the second, Gansu Province is the worst. In terms of economic support for transportation, Gansu Province is the largest, Hunan Province is the second, and Shandong Province is the smallest. Finally, based on the conclusions of the three provinces, the author puts forward some suggestions on the relationship between transportation and economic development.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F127;F512.7

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