基于实物期权的城市轨道交通PPP项目政府补偿决策研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 10:41

本文选题：城市轨道交通　切入点：政府和社会资本合作　出处：《天津理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国城镇化建设正在快速推进,同时城镇化也带来的人口密集、交通拥堵、环境污染等问题,因而城市轨道交通项目得以大力推进建设,因其具有投资规模大、投资回收难度大等特性,则需要政府和社会资本合作以推动项目可持续发展。但政府和社会资本之间是存在目标冲突的,则需要政府补偿的投入以巩固两者合作关系,而研究考虑到项目收益不确定性,通过实物期权描述项目收益情况,构建在不确定性条件下投资动态最优化模型,通过对模型的求解和分析为政府补偿的决策提供依据。首先,利用实物期权的方法进行城市轨道交通项目中政府补偿必要性分析,该部分针对不确定收益下社会资本独自投资项目并还需符合项目的公益性质,即需要在固定的项目经营期和项目经营价格约束下投资项目的情形展开分析,依据项目预期收益流和成本流,再根据不确定条件下不可逆投资理论,构建社会资本投资城市轨道交通项目的最优投资决策模型,得到社会资本投资的临界条件,再通过实例对该模型进行验证,结果表明项目在固定的项目经营期和项目经营价格的约束下达不到社会资本投资的临界值,政府必须采用补偿措施,即表明在城市轨道交通项目中政府补偿是必要的。然后,根据政府补偿的投入方式和投入时间不同,从降低社会资本投资成本(项目前期投资补偿)和降低社会资本运营项目不确定性(项目运营期投入补偿)两种方式以及两者组合方式分析社会资本投资项目的项目价值情况,以上一部分采用WACC计算出的社会资本预期收益水平、固定项目经营期、固定项目经营价格等为社会资本投资项目的基准条件,构建城市轨道交通项目政府补偿方式决策模型,再以实例对该模型进行验证,结果表明两种补偿方式结合机制更符合政府和社会资本双方利益,这一部分内容旨在为政府确定补偿方式提供一个判别标准和方法。最后,在投资补偿和投入补偿这两种补偿方式组合下,分析投资补偿、投入补偿、客流临界值与波动率、预期收益率之间的性质,为政府补偿决策具体建议提供依据。
[Abstract]:The construction of urbanization is advancing rapidly in our country. At the same time, urbanization also brings many problems, such as population density, traffic congestion, environmental pollution and so on. Therefore, the urban rail transit project can be vigorously promoted because of its large scale of investment. In order to promote the sustainable development of the project, it is necessary for the government to cooperate with the social capital to promote the sustainable development of the project. However, there is a conflict of objectives between the government and the social capital, and the government compensates the investment in order to consolidate the cooperative relationship between the two. Considering the uncertainty of the project income, the paper describes the project income through real option, constructs the investment dynamic optimization model under the uncertainty condition, and provides the basis for the government compensation decision by solving and analyzing the model. Using the real option method to analyze the necessity of government compensation in urban rail transit project, this part aims at the social capital alone investment project under uncertain income and also needs to conform to the public welfare nature of the project. That is to say, it is necessary to analyze the situation of the investment project under the fixed project operating period and the project operating price constraint, according to the expected income flow and cost flow of the project, and then according to the theory of irreversible investment under uncertain conditions. The optimal investment decision model of social capital investment in urban rail transit project is constructed, and the critical conditions of social capital investment are obtained, and the model is verified by an example. The results show that the critical value of social capital investment can not be reached due to the fixed project operating period and project operating price constraint, and the government must adopt compensatory measures, that is, government compensation is necessary in urban rail transit projects. Depending on how and when the government compensates, This paper analyzes the value of social capital investment project from two ways: reducing the cost of social capital investment (compensation for pre-project investment) and reducing uncertainty of social capital operation project (compensation for investment in project operation period), as well as the combination of the two methods. In the above part, the expected income level of social capital calculated by WACC, the operating period of fixed project and the operating price of fixed project are used as the benchmark conditions of social capital investment project, and the decision-making model of government compensation mode of urban rail transit project is constructed. An example is given to verify the model. The results show that the combination of the two compensation methods is more in the interest of both government and social capital. This part aims to provide a criterion and method for the government to determine the compensation mode. Under the combination of investment compensation and investment compensation, the paper analyzes the nature of investment compensation, investment compensation, passenger flow critical value and fluctuation rate, and expected return rate, which provides the basis for government compensation decision.
【学位授予单位】：天津理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F283;F572

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