厦门港引航风险评价的研究

发布时间：2018-03-18 17:32

本文选题：厦门港　切入点：交汇水域　出处：《集美大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：作为生产作业的基础,安全问题一直都是关注的焦点,港区作业也不例外,作为海峡西岸的重要交流港口,厦门港有着特殊的地理位置,厦门港地处我国东南沿海、台湾海峡中南部,拥有超过400艘船舶,逾850家港航相关企业。2015年,厦门港口岸的货物吞吐量突破2.1亿吨,厦门港集装箱吞吐量突破900万标箱,同比增长7.1%,增幅跃居全国沿海八大干线港口第一名。密集的船舶交通,已经威胁到航行的安全,而船舶承载着货物和旅客,一旦发生事故不仅会造成巨大的经济损失,而且会直接威胁到人的生命安全。船舶进出港的过程中,引航员有着不可替代的作用,用数学方法揭示船舶引航中的风险因素的危险程度,对进一步保障厦门港船舶引航安全,实现一个秩序有条不紊,环境良好的厦门港将具有重要的意义。本文理论层面,采用模糊综合评判对厦门港船舶引航风险进行了研究。本文延续了模糊综合评价的经典流程:风险因素识别——风险评价——决策建议。在风险因素识别阶段,采用了专家头脑风暴方法,对厦门引航站一线作业引航员、一线船长以及其他行业相关领域专家进行了问卷调查,建立安全指标体系,以层次分析法为基础建立数学评价模型,并对数学模型进行应用论证。在综合分析厦门港自身的特性基础上,以人为根本,结合人的行为、人操纵的主体、以及配套设施,将目标层细分为,人的行为、被引船舶属性、交通条件,进而细分为靠离泊操作、尺度、航道等14个子因素。在风险识别的基础之上建立了厦门港水域风险指标体系与评估模型。考虑人的因素至关重要,为了更细致的分析人的因素带来的影响,因此研究中将人的行为因素在三种天气条件下依据问卷调查得出判断矩阵,并依据获取了相应天气条件下的各个子因素的权重变化。为进一步提高引航安全,预防海难发生,进一步加强厦门港船舶引航作业的安全保障,奠定了一定的理论基础。
[Abstract]:As the basis of production operations, safety issues have always been the focus of attention, and the operation of port areas is no exception. As an important exchange port on the west side of the Strait, Xiamen Port has a special geographical location. Xiamen Port is located in the southeast coast of China. In 2015, the cargo throughput of Xiamen Port exceeded 210 million tons, and the container throughput of Xiamen Port exceeded 9 million TEUs. The year-on-year increase of 7.1% PW, the increase rate jumped to the first place in the eight major trunk ports in the country's coastal areas. Intensive ship traffic has threatened the safety of navigation, and ships carry cargo and passengers. Once an accident occurs, it will not only cause huge economic losses, In the process of entering and leaving the port, the pilot plays an irreplaceable role. To reveal the dangerous degree of the risk factors in the pilotage of the ship by mathematical method will further ensure the pilotage safety of the ships in Xiamen Port. It will be of great significance to realize an orderly and environmentally sound Xiamen Port. This paper studies the pilotage risk of ships in Xiamen Port by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. This paper continues the classical process of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation: risk factor identification-risk evaluation-decision suggestion. In the stage of risk factor identification, The expert brainstorming method was used to investigate the pilot, captain and other experts in other related fields of Xiamen pilot station. The safety index system was established, and the mathematical evaluation model was established on the basis of Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). On the basis of comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of Xiamen Port, the target layer is subdivided into human behavior, citation ship attributes and human behavior, combined with human behavior, the subject of human manipulation, and supporting facilities. Traffic conditions are further subdivided into 14 sub-factors, such as berthing operation, scale, channel, etc. On the basis of risk identification, a risk index system and an assessment model for Xiamen Port waters are established. It is very important to consider the human factor. In order to analyze the influence of human factors more carefully, the behavioral factors in the study were used in three weather conditions to obtain the judgment matrix according to the questionnaire survey. According to the weight changes of various sub-factors under the corresponding weather conditions, this paper establishes a certain theoretical foundation for further improving pilotage safety, preventing shipwreck and further strengthening the safety and security of ship pilotage operation in Xiamen Port.
【学位授予单位】：集美大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F552.7

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