铁路建设项目后评价基础理论与方法研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 13:21

本文选题：铁路建设项目　切入点：后评价　出处：《西南交通大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：铁路建设项目后评价因铁路网络型基础产业特性和运营技术系统复杂性而在评价基础理论、内容与方法上有别于一般建设项目,在我国铁路持续大规模建设、路网质量不断提升、供需关系逐步改善的背景下,进行铁路建设项目后评价基础理论与方法研究,对于完善铁路建设项目后评价内容,增强规划决策科学性,提高铁路运营管理服务水平有着重要的作用。本文针对铁路建设项目后评价研究与实践存在的主要问题,以铁路产业理论、外部性理论、运输需求与供给理论、复杂网络理论为起点,研究铁路建设项目分类后评价、经济费用效益后评价、运营后评价和网络影响后评价的理论与方法。综述铁路产业特性的研究成果,分析铁路公益性可计量外溢效益的构成,提出以公益性系数定量测算为主要依据的公益性铁路判定方法。按公益性、投融资和运营管理主体、在路网中的地位和作用、业务和技术属性等对铁路建设项目进行分类,并分析了铁路建设项目分类后评价内容与方法的差异性。基于运输外部性理论研究,以实施者为界将铁路外部性划分为利用者外部性、网络外部性、社会经济外部性、自然环境外部性等不同层次,以此界定铁路建设项目的内部效益即供给者效益,外部效益分为利用者效益、网络效益、社会性效益和环境改善效益,给出了经济费用效益测算方法。特别针对铁路建设项目的特点,建立了新建铁路网络效益计算的非线性整数规划模型,设计了基于节点重要度层次的动态K短路优化算法,并给出实例测算。以运输需求与供给理论的系统分析为基础,建立需求视角下包括运量预测后评价、基础设施服务水平后评价、运输产品服务水平后评价和运输组织服务水平后评价的运营后评价内容体系。提出了运量预测数据精度分层后评价方法和预测失准问题的对策。建立服从于需求质量要求的基础设施、运输产品与服务、运输组织三层次运营服务水平后评价指标体系和指标量化方法,以某客运专线为例实证分析,后评价结论能够准确反映其运营服务水平。运营服务水平评价的核心指标—可靠性主要受列车运行图冗余时间布局的影响,建立列车运行图冗余时间分阶段布局优化模型,选用遗传算法和动态规划算法分步求解。以广深城际铁路为例进行列车运行图冗余时间仿真分析,得出冗余时间设置总量、纵向和横向冗余时间分配方法、列车停站方案对冗余时间设置影响等主要结论,为提高列车运行图稳定性提供参考。综述复杂网络理论的研究成果,分析新建线路网络影响的产生层次和生成机制。从网络结构性能和服务水平两方面建立包括集聚系数、点介数、网络效率、连通可靠性、路网密度、网络饱和度、运量效益和时间效益的网络影响后评价指标体系,并构建了基于模糊物元理论的后评价模型。实例分析结果证明,后评价结论符合铁路网络构成特点和不同线路对网络影响的差异性,并能为规划决策提供有效的支持。
[Abstract]:Post evaluation of railway construction project because of complexity of the railway network infrastructure industry characteristics and operation system in the evaluation of the basic theory, is different from the general construction project content and methods, in China's railway network continued large-scale construction, improve the quality of the relationship between supply and demand gradually improved under the background of basic Research on the theory and method of evaluation of railway after the construction project for the improvement of the railway construction project post evaluation content, and enhance the scientific planning decision-making, plays an important role in improving the railway operation management service level. Main problems existing in the research and practice of price evaluation according to the railway construction project, according to the theory of railway industry, externality theory, transportation demand and supply theory, complex network the theory as a starting point, research on railway construction project post evaluation classification, cost efficiency evaluation, theory and operation evaluation and impact assessment of the network Review of the research method. The railway industry characteristics, analysis of public benefit railway can form measurement, proposed to the public as the main basis of the quantitative calculation of the coefficient of public railway determination method. According to the public welfare, financing and operation management subject, status and role in the road network, business and technical attributes such as classification the railway construction project, and analyzes the difference of the railway construction project post evaluation content and method of classification. Based on externality theory research to implementation for transport, railway sector will be divided into the external network externality, externality, social economic externalities, natural environmental externalities at different levels, in order to define the railway construction project internal benefit is supply benefits, external benefit is divided into the benefit, network benefit, social benefit and environmental benefit to improve efficiency, gives the method of economic cost. The pin of the railway construction project, we establish a nonlinear integer programming model to calculate the benefit of new railway network, the design of dynamic K circuit level optimization algorithm based on the node importance degree, and give an example to measure system. The transportation demand and supply theory analysis as the basis, establish the demand from the perspective of post evaluation including traffic forecasting, infrastructure service level evaluation, service level of the service level of transportation products evaluation and post evaluation of transportation organization operation evaluation content system. And puts forward some countermeasures for misalignment evaluation and prediction accuracy of stratified volume forecasting. To set up infrastructure to demand the quality requirements, the transportation of products and services, index system and quantitative method level three level service transport organization evaluation, to a passenger line as an example, after the conclusion of the evaluation can accurately reflect the operation The level of service. The core index - Evaluation of the reliability of operation and service level is mainly affected by the time redundancy of train diagram layout, establish the train diagram redundant time phased layout optimization model, using genetic algorithm and dynamic programming algorithm to solve. Step by step to the Guangzhou Shenzhen intercity railway for train diagram redundant time simulation analysis, we can conclude that the set of the total redundant time, vertical and horizontal redundancy time allocation method, the train stops influence on redundant time setting of the main conclusions, and provide reference for improving the stability of the train diagram is summarized. The complex network theory, and the hierarchical analysis on the formation mechanism of network effects. A new line from the two aspects of the network structure performance and service level including the clustering coefficient, betweenness, network efficiency, reliability, network density, network saturation, volume efficiency and time efficiency The network influences post evaluation index system, and builds a post evaluation model based on fuzzy matter element theory. The result of case analysis proves that the post evaluation conclusion is in line with the characteristics of railway network and the difference between different lines on the network, and it can provide effective support for planning decisions.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F532.3

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