基于吞吐量预测的秦皇岛港口效率研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 19:49

本文选题：秦皇岛港　切入点：吞吐量预测　出处：《燕山大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：经济全球化使得国际贸易活动更加频繁，港口作为国家参与国家经济合作与竞争的重要战略资源，它的规划与发展尤为重要。港口吞吐量是衡量港口绩效的重要标志，港口效率是港口规划建设的重要依据。为此本文基于秦皇岛港的吞吐量预测结果研究了秦皇岛港口效率问题。本文在定性分析的基础上应用了改进背景值及初始条件的灰色预测模型及回归预测模型对秦皇岛港的吞吐量进行了定量预测。根据单项预测结果选用改进的熵值法确定了各单项预测模型在组合预测模型中的权重，给出了秦皇岛港吞吐量的最终预测结果。进而，本文应用DEA模型评价了历年秦皇岛港的港口效率，并就评价结果分析了港口的投入产出情况。为得出港口效率的排序结果进一步引入MDEA模型，应用该模型及秦皇岛港吞吐量的预测结果最终分析了未来港口效率发展情况，得出秦皇岛港曾出现超负荷营运的现象，为跟上港口发展需求需适度提高港口建设的结论。最后，立足于全文，针对秦皇岛港目前面临的机遇与挑战提出了秦皇岛港进一步发展规划的对策建议，供相关部门参考。
[Abstract]:Economic globalization makes international trade activities more frequent. As an important strategic resource for countries to participate in national economic cooperation and competition, port planning and development is particularly important. Port throughput is an important symbol of port performance. Port efficiency is an important basis for port planning and construction, so this paper studies the efficiency of Qinhuangdao port based on the throughput prediction results of Qinhuangdao Port. In this paper, based on qualitative analysis, grey forecasting model and regression forecasting model with improved background value and initial condition are applied to quantitatively forecast the throughput of Qinhuangdao Port. The improved entropy is selected according to the single prediction result. The value method determines the weight of each single prediction model in the combined prediction model. The final forecast result of Qinhuangdao Port's throughput is given. Furthermore, the port efficiency of Qinhuangdao Port is evaluated by using DEA model. In order to obtain the ranking result of port efficiency, the MDEA model is further introduced, and the future port efficiency development is finally analyzed by using the model and the forecast result of Qinhuangdao port throughput. It is concluded that the Qinhuangdao Port has been overloaded and the port construction should be improved moderately in order to keep up with the port development demand. Finally, based on the full text, this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the further development planning of Qinhuangdao Port in view of the opportunities and challenges currently faced by Qinhuangdao Port, for the reference of relevant departments.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552.6

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