基于系统动力学的国内LPG货主企业最优租船决策研究

发布时间：2018-03-27 18:27

本文选题：LPG　切入点：水运市场　出处：《大连海事大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：LPG水上运输是一种既经济又安全的运输方式,其大批量、长距离、低成本的优势使其成为LPG跨区调运的主要运输方式之一。与国内其他水运市场相比,LPG水运市场规模偏小,运力需求方面,LPG货主主要是中石油、中石化及地方炼厂。运力供给方面,国内LPG船公司规模普遍偏小,运输市场不够规范。由于前几年运力的盲目发展,目前运力供给已远远大于运力需求。我国LPG水运业务基本保持原客户自提的离岸销售模式,由于LPG船舶仍按采购价和获利等因素自主选择装货港,致使货主企业对水运的控制和影响力十分有限。长期粗放式经营导致货主企业对物流资源掌控能力低下。为改变这种局面,中石油、中石化等大货主决定以租船方式控制一定的LPG水运运力,逐渐改变“运贸一体”的经营模式,以降低公司运行成本,提高物流效率,确保运输畅通。然而,由于国内LPG水运市场规模较小,货主企业的租船决策变化无疑将引起LPG水运现货市场货源量的变化,进而加剧价格竞争,船公司与货主的博弈增加了市场走向预测的难度。对货主企业而言,某个时点成本最优的期租决策未必持续最优,如何制定科学的租船决策成为值得研究的问题。本文采用系统动力学的方法,站在货主企业的角度,对LPG水运市场进行研究。首先,对国内LPG贸易市场以及LPG水运市场进行定性地分析,其次,在明确国内LPG水运市场的供给与需求情况的基础上,建立水运运力需求-运力供给-运价的系统动力学模型,定量地剖析整个市场的运行与反应机制,并对货主公司的期租船舶数量决策进行模拟,找到最优水运运力控制量决策,为货主企业制定战略决策提供一定的参考,促进国内LPG水运市场的健康发展。
[Abstract]:LPG water transportation is an economical and safe way of transportation. Its advantages of large quantity, long distance and low cost make it one of the main transportation modes for LPG trans-regional transportation. Compared with other domestic water transportation markets, the scale of LPG water transportation market is relatively small. In terms of capacity demand, the main owners of LPG are PetroChina, Sinopec and local refineries. In terms of capacity supply, the scale of domestic LPG shipping companies is generally small and the transportation market is not standardized. Due to the blind development of transport capacity in previous years, At present, the supply of capacity has far exceeded the demand for capacity. China's LPG waterway business basically maintains the offshore sales mode proposed by the original customers. As the LPG vessels still choose the loading port independently according to the purchase price and profit, etc. In order to change this situation, PetroChina, in order to change this situation, has limited control and influence on water transportation. Sinopec and other large cargo owners decided to control certain LPG shipping capacity by chartering, and gradually changed the management mode of "transportation and trade integration" in order to reduce the operating cost of the company, improve the efficiency of logistics, and ensure the smooth transportation. However, because of the small scale of domestic LPG water transportation market, the change of ship charter decision of the cargo owner enterprise will undoubtedly cause the change of the quantity of goods in the spot market of LPG water transportation, and then intensify the price competition. The game between the shipping company and the owner increases the difficulty of market forecast. For the shippers, the optimal time cost decision is not always optimal, so it is worth studying how to make the scientific decision. In this paper, the author uses the method of system dynamics to study the LPG waterway market from the point of view of the shippers. Firstly, the domestic LPG trade market and the LPG waterway market are analyzed qualitatively. Secondly, the domestic LPG trade market and the LPG waterway market are analyzed qualitatively. On the basis of clarifying the supply and demand of domestic LPG water transportation market, the system dynamics model of water transportation capacity demand-capacity supply-tariff is established, and the operation and reaction mechanism of the whole market is analyzed quantitatively. The paper simulates the quantity decision of the time chartered ship of the cargo owner company, finds out the optimal decision of the control quantity of the shipping capacity, and provides a certain reference for the shipowner enterprise to make the strategic decision, and promotes the healthy development of the domestic LPG water transportation market.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552;F224

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