天津港集疏运承载能力研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 14:12

本文选题：逻辑斯蒂生长模型　切入点：天津港　出处：《天津大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：天津港是我国北方的第一大港,其港口规模和竞争力与港口自身的集疏运能力息息相关。港口的集疏运能力直接影响着港口的发展,一般而言,良好的集疏运条件能够促进港口的扩张和发展,反之则会起到抑制发展的效果。集疏运系统的重要性也越来越受到研究学者们的注意,在港口经济迅猛发展的今天,港口之间的竞争也越发激烈,港口间的竞争正由港口集疏运层面向港口腹地集疏运系统延伸。天津港的目前的发展处于什么阶段?天津港具备什么样的竞争力?天津港与其港口集疏运存在何种关系?目前港口的集疏运条件如何?本文针对以上问题,结合模型分析,在学者们前期研究工作的基础上有如下创新: 1.利用港口发展与种群模型的相似性,运用统计理论和遗传算法,模拟港口规模的发展轨迹。分析发现港口目前已经越过逻辑斯蒂生长曲线的中点,发展速度将逐步放缓。天津港竞争力直接反映在与其它上市港口公司的直接比较中,结果显示,天津港整体具备较强的竞争力,在管理效率和腹地交通建设这两个方面存在不足。 2.以高速公路里程数和集装箱吞吐量为评价指标,通过对互利共生模型的平衡点和稳定性分析得出,高速公路里程数与集装箱吞吐量的共同发展存在一个必要的比例前提,进而得出天津港与腹地集疏运系统之间也需要达到一定比例,才能实现“互利共生”式的发展。 3.利用网络DEA模型打开以往DEA效率研究中的“黑箱”,得到天津港综合的效率评价以及各个子系统的效率评价。结果表明,天津港在内部管理中的核心竞争力在于成本控制能力突出,在盈利效率,风险控制等方面都存在欠缺。 4.将天津港的直属腹地,滨海新区主城区各道路之间的联系抽象成无标度的复杂网络,通过度、路径长度、聚集系数和鲁棒性等拓扑特性的分析发现,滨海新区主城区的公路网络是一个典型的小世界网络,聚集系数偏低,对随机攻击具有较强的鲁棒性,对恶意攻击的鲁棒性较差。网络的核心区域位于以洋货市场为中心的道路区域。通过天津港与集疏运系统之间的分析研究,发现天津港与其集疏运都存在着一些问题,本文对这些问题予以一定的说明并提出相应的建议。
[Abstract]:Tianjin Port is the largest port in the north of China. Its port size and competitiveness are closely related to the port's own capacity of collecting and distributing. The port's capacity of collecting and distributing directly affects the development of the port, generally speaking, Good transportation conditions can promote the expansion and development of the port, otherwise it will have the effect of restraining the development. The importance of the collecting and distributing system has been paid more and more attention by the researchers. Today, with the rapid development of the port economy, The competition between ports is becoming more and more intense, and the competition between ports is extending from the port transportation level to the port hinterland distribution system. Tianjin Port's current development in what stage? What kind of competitiveness does Tianjin Port have? What is the relationship between Tianjin Port and its port transportation? What are the current conditions of port transportation? This paper aims at the above problems, combined with the model analysis, on the basis of the previous research work of scholars, there are the following innovations:. 1. Using the similarity between port development and population model, using statistical theory and genetic algorithm to simulate the development trajectory of port scale, it is found that the port has crossed the midpoint of the logical Stey growth curve. The speed of development will gradually slow down. The competitiveness of Tianjin Port is directly reflected in the direct comparison with other listed port companies. The results show that Tianjin Port as a whole has strong competitiveness. In the management efficiency and hinterland traffic construction in these two aspects of deficiencies. 2. Taking expressway mileage and container throughput as evaluation indexes, through the analysis of equilibrium point and stability of mutually-beneficial symbiotic model, it is concluded that there is a necessary proportional premise for the common development of expressway mileage and container throughput. It is concluded that Tianjin Port and its hinterland transportation system also need to reach a certain proportion in order to realize the development of "mutualism and mutualism". 3. Using the network DEA model to open the "black box" of the former DEA efficiency research, get the comprehensive efficiency evaluation of Tianjin Port and the efficiency evaluation of each subsystem. The core competitiveness of Tianjin Port in internal management lies in its outstanding ability of cost control and its deficiency in profit efficiency and risk control. 4. Abstract the connection between the roads in the main urban area of Binhai New area into a scale-free complex network, through the analysis of topological characteristics such as degree, path length, aggregation coefficient and robustness, etc. The highway network in main urban area of Binhai New area is a typical small-world network with low aggregation coefficient and strong robustness to random attacks. The core area of the network lies in the road area centered on the foreign goods market. Through the analysis and research between Tianjin Port and its collecting and distributing system, it is found that there are some problems in Tianjin Port and its distribution system. This paper gives some explanation to these problems and puts forward some corresponding suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552;F224

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