天津市XZ客运站项目财务与社会评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 07:04

本文选题：客运站　切入点：客流量　出处：《天津大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：交通运输是国家经济发展的大动脉，市场经济的发展对劳动力和资源的需求及市场化调配必然导致公路客运量的飙升，但目前的客运站建设无法满足社会发展的需求，造成这一局面的原因固然有运力不足的问题，但瓶颈仍然是现代化的、绿色环保的公路客运枢纽站建设不足。伴随国家铁路建设急行军的步伐，天津市政府提出通过天津公路XZ客运枢纽站的建设，带动天津西部城区发展，形成城市副中心的设想。因此对作为龙头开发项目的XZ客运站工程进行管理学上的技术经济评价就尤为重要了。这有力地促进了天津基础建设的科学规划，也对规范交通运输的合理发展提供了技术支持。本文在综合分析当前天津市已建成客运站的运行情况基础上，以XZ客运站建设项目为具体研究对象，结合天津地区区域经济特点，，合理运用经济评价与社会评价相关理论，采用定性与定量相结合、宏观与微观相结合的方法，从客流量预测、财务评价和社会评价方面对该项目进行分析。利用线性回归分析的方法，对天津市未来10年的公路客流量进行预测。建立数学模型，依据天津市统计年鉴数据，推算出XZ客运站建成后日平均旅客发送量，从而推算出该客运站建成后的经济收益，并以此为依据进行经济效益分析。同时依据该项目的特点，结合天津市的自然环境和社会环境，尝试性地给出该项目的社会评价指标及方法，研究了对项目投资进行决策的评价标准和依据。同时以点带面，科学地识别出项目的各种影响因素并建立完整的指标体系，力争构建出一个最佳前期经济效益及社会效益分析指标，希望对今后天津及东部地区其他省市公路客运站建设提供有价值的参考和借鉴。
[Abstract]:Transportation is the main artery of national economic development. The demand for labor force and resources and the market-oriented allocation of the market economy will inevitably lead to a surge in the volume of road passenger traffic, but the current passenger station construction cannot meet the needs of social development. The reasons for this situation are, of course, insufficient transportation capacity, but the bottleneck is still modernization and the lack of construction of green and environmentally friendly passenger transport hub stations along with the rapid pace of the national railway construction. The Tianjin Municipal Government has proposed to promote the development of the western urban area of Tianjin through the construction of the XZ passenger terminal station on Tianjin Highway. Therefore, it is particularly important to carry out the technical and economic evaluation of the XZ passenger station project, which is a leading development project, on the basis of management. This has greatly promoted the scientific planning of Tianjin's infrastructure construction. It also provides technical support to standardize the reasonable development of transportation. Based on the comprehensive analysis of the current operation of Tianjin passenger station, taking the XZ passenger station construction project as the specific research object and combining the regional economic characteristics of Tianjin, the relevant theories of economic evaluation and social evaluation are used rationally. The project is analyzed from the aspects of passenger flow prediction, financial evaluation and social evaluation by combining qualitative and quantitative methods, macro and micro methods. By using the method of linear regression analysis, the highway passenger flow of Tianjin in the next 10 years is forecasted. The mathematical model is established. According to the data of Tianjin statistical yearbook, the average daily passenger transport capacity of XZ passenger station is calculated after the completion of the station. The economic benefits of the station are calculated, and the economic benefits are analyzed. According to the characteristics of the project, the natural environment and social environment of Tianjin are combined. This paper tries to give the social evaluation index and method of the project, and studies the evaluation criteria and basis for the project investment decision. At the same time, it scientifically identifies the various influencing factors of the project and establishes a complete index system. It is hoped that it will provide valuable reference for the future construction of highway passenger stations in Tianjin and other provinces and cities in eastern China.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F285;U492.4

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