天津港引航安全风险评估与预控研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 03:17

本文选题：船舶引航　切入点：航行安全　出处：《天津大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，天津港不断加快向世界一流大港迈进的步伐，在区域经济和天津市经济发展中发挥了重要的作用。在天津港的物流系统中，引航是其中的一个重要环节，它承担着引领中外船舶进出港口的重要责任，同时也是一项具有较高安全风险的工作。而天津港水域较大的船舶通航密度和复杂的通航环境使这项工作的难度和风险进一步增加。随着天津港水域船舶数量的逐年增多，船舶引航的艘次也随之增长。2011年已经超过20000艘次，日平均达60余艘次，是2001年的两倍。此外，由于现代船舶制造业的蓬勃发展，船舶的种类变的越来越多、吨位变的越来越大、速度也越来越快。这些都给天津港船舶引航作业带来了很多的新风险。保证港口设施和航行船舶的安全，是引航工作的核心。本文充分运用调查分析、统计推断、FSA（Formal Safety Assessment，综合安全评估）等方法，对天津港船舶引航安全情况进行了较为系统的研究，深入分析了2001年至2010年期间的船舶引航工作的风险情况及其形成原因。通过对历年来的天津港引航事故进行剖析，总结了这些事故所具备的共性及特点，提出了威胁引航安全并造成事故的基本因素(如自然条件、船舶、交通、航道、引航员、管理等)，，阐明了这些因素之间的相互影响和作用。着重强调了通航环境、人为因素、安全管理对船舶航行安全的重要影响。最后，结合当前天津港引航的实际情况，使用基于贝叶斯统计的风险预测方法对以后的船舶引航安全发展趋势和情况进行了风险预测，并在这些工作的基础上，为天津港引航风险预控提出了一些建议性的意见，为减少引航事故制定了一些具体的措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, Tianjin Port has been speeding up the pace of stepping forward to the world-class port, which has played an important role in the regional economy and the economic development of Tianjin. In the logistics system of Tianjin Port, pilotage is one of the important links. It bears the important responsibility of guiding Chinese and foreign ships in and out of ports. At the same time, it is also a work with high safety risk, and the difficulty and risk of this work are further increased due to the larger vessel traffic density and complex navigable environment in Tianjin Port waters. As the number of ships in the waters of Tianjin Port increases year by year, the number of pilotage ships also increases. In 2011, more than 20000 ships were piloted, with an average of more than 60 times a day, double the number in 2001. In addition, with the vigorous development of the modern shipbuilding industry, The variety of ships becomes more and more, the tonnage becomes larger and faster, which brings a lot of new risks to the pilotage operation of Tianjin Port. It is the core of pilotage work to ensure the safety of port facilities and navigation ships. This paper makes a systematic study on pilotage safety of Tianjin Port by means of investigation and analysis, statistical inference and so on. In this paper, the risk and causes of pilotage work in Tianjin Port from 2001 to 2010 are analyzed, and the commonness and characteristics of these accidents are summed up by analyzing the pilotage accidents of Tianjin Port over the years. The basic factors (such as natural condition, ship, traffic, channel, pilot, management, etc.) which threaten pilotage safety and cause accidents are put forward. The mutual influence and function of these factors are expounded. The navigable environment and man-made factors are emphasized. Finally, combined with the actual situation of pilotage in Tianjin Port, the risk prediction method based on Bayesian statistics is used to predict the development trend and situation of pilotage safety in the future. On the basis of these works, some suggestions for pilotage risk control in Tianjin Port are put forward, and some concrete measures are made to reduce pilotage accidents.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552.7

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