长江干线航运发展与流域经济适应性评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 08:15

本文选题：主成分分析法　切入点：适应性　出处：《武汉理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：长江干线是长江流域经济发展最重要的纽带,长江航运对带动沿江经济发展及产业布局具有十分重要的作用。反之,长江流域地区经济的快速发展,推动了长江航运需求的极大增长,也对长江干线航道的建设水平提出了更高的要求,因此,基于目前长江干线流域的经济发展水平,测度长江干线航运发展水平在此发展背景下的适应性问题,具有重要的现实意义。目前在适应性研究方面,主要侧重于从整体上研究交通运输与社会经济的相互作用,而着眼于内河航道适应性的研究还比较少,没有形成统一的评价指标体系。本文认为长江干线航运发展与流域经济的适应性既包括长江干线航运发展现状与经济现状的适应程度,也包括未来长江干线航运需求与经济需求的适应性,这个适应性的内涵是指航运发展不仅要从速度和规模上满足经济发展的要求,还要保证航道基础设施条件、船舶运营组织等与经济发展的阶段和水平相适应。因此本文综合考虑上述因素,选取一系列指标构建长江干线航运发展与流域经济适应性评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法对指标进行综合处理,分别得到长江上、中、下游的航运发展、经济发展综合评价值,对比分析其适应性,为未来航运发展提供一个方向。本文首先分析了长江干线航运发展与流域经济的发展现状,分别从总体经济、产业结构、对外贸易、地方财力四个方面对长江流域的经济现状进行概述,并从航道、港口、船舶、运输四个方面着手对长江干线航道的建设情况和通航现状进行分析；然后本文第三章采用定性与定量相结合的方法对不同航段的航运发展需求及流域经济需求进行预测,定量预测时主要采用二次指数平滑法得到预测结果；此外,在第四章中首先考虑一系列影响因素,通过分析指标之间的相关性,剔除不相关指标,最终构建了长江干线航运发展与流域经济适应性评价指标体系,再分别对长江干线航运发展现状及航运发展需求与流域经济的适应性进行评价,采用主成分分析法分析数据,分别得到航运发展与流域经济的综合得分值,计算其差值,以此衡量现在及未来的航运发展水平；最后,在此基础上提出改进意见。
[Abstract]:The main line of the Yangtze River is the most important link for the economic development of the Yangtze River basin, and the shipping along the Yangtze River plays a very important role in driving the economic development and industrial distribution along the Yangtze River.On the contrary, the rapid development of the economy in the Yangtze River basin has promoted the great growth of the Yangtze River shipping demand, and put forward higher requirements for the construction level of the Yangtze River trunk waterway. Therefore, based on the current economic development level of the Yangtze River main river basin,It is of great practical significance to measure the adaptability of the development level of Yangtze River trunk shipping under this background.At present, the research on adaptability is mainly focused on the interaction between transportation and social economy, while the study on adaptability of inland waterway is less, and there is no unified evaluation index system.This paper holds that the adaptability of the development of the Yangtze River trunk line shipping and the river basin economy includes not only the adaptability of the current situation of the Yangtze River trunk shipping development and the current economic situation, but also the adaptability of the future Yangtze River trunk line shipping demand and economic demand.The connotation of this adaptability is that the development of shipping should not only meet the requirements of economic development in terms of speed and scale, but also ensure the conditions of waterway infrastructure, ship operation organization and so on, which are compatible with the stage and level of economic development.Therefore, this paper synthetically considers the above factors, selects a series of indexes to construct the evaluation index system of the Yangtze River trunk shipping development and the river basin economic adaptability, uses the principal component analysis method to carry on the comprehensive treatment to the index, obtains the Changjiang River upper and middle, respectively,The comprehensive evaluation value of downstream shipping development and economic development provides a direction for future shipping development by comparing and analyzing its adaptability.This paper first analyzes the development of the Yangtze River trunk shipping and the development of the river basin economy, respectively from the overall economy, industrial structure, foreign trade, local financial resources in four aspects of the economic situation of the Yangtze River basin, and from the waterway, port,The four aspects of shipping and transportation begin to analyze the construction and navigation status of the Yangtze River main waterway, and the third chapter uses the method of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis to forecast the development demand of shipping and the economic demand of different watersheds.In the fourth chapter, a series of influencing factors are considered first, and by analyzing the correlation between the indexes, the irrelevant indexes are eliminated.Finally, the evaluation index system of Yangtze River trunk shipping development and basin economic adaptability is constructed, and then the current situation of Yangtze River trunk shipping development and the adaptability of shipping development demand and basin economy are evaluated, and the principal component analysis method is used to analyze the data.The comprehensive scores of shipping development and basin economy are obtained, and the difference between them is calculated to measure the present and future shipping development level. Finally, suggestions for improvement are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;F562.8

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