不确定环境下国际海运物流决策系统的设计与实现

发布时间：2018-04-13 00:09

本文选题：不确定性 + 国际海运物流　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：国际海运物流是国际贸易的一种重要途径，随着我国国际贸易的稳步快速发展，国际海运物流行业也得到了迅猛快速发展。作为服务行业，国际海运物流行业的企业本着“客户至上”的宗旨不断提高服务质量，但是近年来受海上运力过剩、竞争日趋激烈、汇率波动国际贸易减少等因素影响，市场对国际海运物流体系提出了更高的要求。国际海运物流的业务需要各个企业多方协作，运营差异和信息交流不足导致企业间协作存在诸多不确定性，，同时作为一个整体，国际海运物流业务流程具有复杂性、多变性等特点，导致整个系统具有不确定性，而本文研究的决策系统能够针对当前发生的不确定性状况做出及时准确的决策。将本文提出的决策技术运用到国际海运物流系统中将能够很好地应对突发的不确定事件，帮助企业在降低运营成本、降低风险的同时提高客户满意度、提高执行效率、提高赢利能力。为此，本文从以下几方面开展工作：首先，从国际海运物流的业务着手进行分析，总结其业务特点并明确业务管理流程。进而分析国际海运物流流程中存在各种不确定性的问题，提取其中的不确定事件并对其进行分类，分析了各种不确定性的应对措施，也对其进行了归纳、分类，针对国际海运物流领域业务多变、合理应对的问题，建立起整体运输服务方案的模型，并基于以上模型深入研究不确定性对物流流程的影响，建立起流程节点不确定性状态模型和不确定性级联触发模型，为后续决策部分做好铺垫。其次，深入学习MDP（Markov Decision Process，马尔可夫决策过程），根据上文建立的决策模型形成基于MDP的不确定性决策方法，实现业务运行过程中针对不确定性事件的最佳决策方案的选择。最后，针对不确定性环境下国际海运物流决策系统的模块划分和实现问题，对系统进行了分析和设计，归纳出系统的功能，进而根据功能划分系统模块、设计系统的信息模型和数据库，实现国际海运物流决策系统，验证本文所提出决策方法以及不确定性决策在国际海运物流系统中的重要作用。
[Abstract]:International maritime logistics is an important way of international trade. With the steady and rapid development of China's international trade, the international maritime logistics industry has also been rapid and rapid development.As a service industry, the enterprises in the international maritime logistics industry constantly improve the service quality with the aim of "customer first". However, in recent years, due to the overcapacity of maritime transportation, the increasingly fierce competition, and the decrease of international trade in exchange rate fluctuations, etc.The market has put forward higher requirements to the international maritime logistics system.The business of international marine logistics needs the cooperation of all kinds of enterprises. The difference of operation and the lack of information exchange lead to a lot of uncertainty among enterprises. As a whole, the business process of international maritime logistics is complex.The characteristics of variability lead to the uncertainty of the whole system, and the decision system studied in this paper can make timely and accurate decision in view of the current uncertainty situation.Applying the decision technology proposed in this paper to the international maritime logistics system will be able to deal with the unexpected uncertain events and help the enterprises reduce the operating costs and risks while improving customer satisfaction and execution efficiency.Improve profitability.Therefore, the work of this paper is carried out in the following aspects:First, analyze the business of international shipping logistics, summarize its business characteristics and clarify the business management process.Then it analyzes the problems of uncertainty in the process of international maritime logistics, extracts and classifies the uncertain events, analyzes the countermeasures of various uncertainties, and summarizes and classifies them.Aiming at the problem that the international shipping logistics business is changeable and reasonable to deal with, the model of the whole transportation service scheme is established, and based on the above model, the influence of uncertainty on the logistics process is deeply studied.The process node uncertainty state model and the uncertainty cascade trigger model are established to pave the way for the follow-up decision.Secondly, the decision process of MDP(Markov Decision process and Markov decision process are studied in depth. According to the decision model established above, the uncertain decision method based on MDP is formed to realize the choice of the best decision scheme for uncertain events in the course of business operation.Finally, aiming at the problem of module partition and realization of international maritime logistics decision system under uncertain environment, the system is analyzed and designed, and the function of the system is summed up, and then the system module is divided according to the function.The information model and database of the system are designed to realize the international maritime logistics decision system. The decision method proposed in this paper and the important role of uncertainty decision in the international maritime logistics system are verified.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：TP311.52;F551

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