北极航线开通对中国沿海省（市）航运业的潜在影响

发布时间：2018-04-13 06:22

本文选题：北极航线 + 水运货运量　；参考：《上海海洋大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着全球气候变暖,北半球夏季海冰加速融化、海冰覆盖面积持续缩减,北极航线全面开通的可能性大大增加。目前,北极航线正处于商业试航阶段。但是,对于北极航线相较传统航线是否存在成本优势在学术界还存在争议。由于航运成本决定了航运企业是否会选择北极航线进行远洋运输,因此,本文试图在选择样本国家、样本港口和样本船型以及收集中国航运业实际统计数据的基础上,运用海洋船舶航运成本核算方法估算了北极航线和传统航线的航运成本,并对两者进行比较分析,以此判断北极航线是否存在经济性。在此基础上,本文从理论和实证两方面分析了北极航线开通对中国沿海省(市)航运业的潜在影响。理论方面,分析了航运企业的航线选择对中国沿海省(市)进出口的影响,以及中国沿海省(市)进出口对其航运业的影响。实证方面,首先,用航行时间替代航运距离的方法将海冰因素纳入到了引力模型中,对传统的贸易引力模型进行了修正;其次,以进出口额作为核心变量构建了有关水运货运量和外贸货物吞吐量的计量模型;最后,构建了中国沿海省(市)水运货运量和外贸货物吞吐量的预测模型。实证结果表明:第一,与传统航线相比,北极航线在燃油费和航运总成本方面具有成本优势,而在船舶租金方面处于相对劣势。北极航线和传统航线的总港口使费基本相等。在无需破冰服务的情况下,北极航线较之传统航线在通行费方面具有成本优势;而在需要破冰服务的情况下,北极航线较之传统航线在这方面则处于相对劣势。与需要破冰服务的情况相比,在无需破冰服务的情况下,北极航线较之传统航线在航运总成本方面的成本优势更大。具体而言,与传统航线相比,北极航线的燃油费低15%左右,船舶租金高36.5%左右。在需要破冰服务的情况下,北极航线的航运总成本比传统航线低2.4%左右,而通行费比传统航线高12.4%左右;在无需破冰服务的情况下,由于没有通行费,北极航线的航运总成本比传统航线低9.2%左右;第二,与传统航线相比,船舶从上海港至俄罗斯、加拿大、美国(东北部)、挪威和英国的港口选择北极航线具有成本优势;第三,在无需破冰服务的情况下,船舶从上海港至法国西北部的港口选择北极航线较之传统航线也具有了成本优势。与需要破冰服务的情况相比,在无需破冰服务的情况下,船舶从上海港至俄罗斯、加拿大、美国(东北部)、挪威和英国的港口选择北极航线较之传统航线的成本优势更大;最后,相对传统航线而言,中国沿海省(市)与北极航线沿线国家间的进出口贸易经北极航线进行运输时,其水运货运量和外贸货物吞吐量均将有所提升,提升幅度分别为2.46%和2.41%。
[Abstract]:With global warming, the Northern Hemisphere summer sea ice melting accelerated, sea ice cover area continues to shrink, the possibility of the full opening of the Arctic route greatly increased.At present, the Arctic route is in the commercial trial stage.However, there is still controversy in academia about whether Arctic routes have cost advantages over traditional routes.Because the shipping cost determines whether the shipping enterprise will choose the Arctic route for ocean transportation, this paper attempts to select the sample countries, sample ports and sample ship types, and collect the actual statistical data of the Chinese shipping industry.The paper estimates the shipping cost of Arctic route and traditional route by using the method of ocean shipping cost accounting, and makes a comparative analysis of the two to judge whether the Arctic route is economical or not.On this basis, this paper analyzes the potential impact of the opening of Arctic routes on the shipping industry of China's coastal provinces (cities) from both theoretical and empirical aspects.Theoretically, this paper analyzes the influence of shipping enterprises' route selection on the import and export of China's coastal provinces (cities) and the influence of China's coastal provinces'(cities)'s imports and exports on their shipping industry.In the empirical aspect, firstly, the sea ice factor is incorporated into the gravity model by the method of shipping time instead of shipping distance, and the traditional trade gravity model is modified.Taking import and export volume as the core variable, this paper constructs the metrological model of waterborne freight volume and foreign trade cargo throughput, and finally, constructs the forecasting model of waterborne freight volume and foreign trade cargo throughput in coastal provinces (cities) of China.The empirical results show that: first, compared with the traditional routes, Arctic routes have cost advantages in fuel costs and total shipping costs, but are relatively inferior in terms of ship rental.The total port of the Arctic route and the traditional route is roughly equal.In the case of no ice-breaking service, the Arctic route has a cost advantage over the traditional route in toll, while the Arctic route is at a relative disadvantage compared with the traditional route in the case of the need for ice-breaking service.Compared with the need for ice-breaking services, Arctic routes have greater cost advantages than traditional routes in terms of total shipping costs without ice-breaking services.Specifically, compared with the traditional route, the fuel cost of the Arctic route is about 15% lower, and the ship rental is about 36.5% higher.In cases where ice-breaking services are required, the total cost of shipping on Arctic routes is about 2.4 per cent lower than on traditional routes, while tolls are about 12.4 per cent higher than on traditional routes; without ice-breaking services, there are no tolls,The total shipping cost of Arctic routes is about 9.2% lower than that of traditional routes; second, compared with traditional routes, ships from Shanghai to Russia, Canada, the United States (ports in the Northeast, Norway and Britain) have cost advantages in choosing Arctic routes; third,Without the need for ice-breaking services, the choice of Arctic routes from Shanghai to northwestern France also has a cost advantage over traditional routes.In the absence of ice-breaking services, ships from Shanghai to Russia, Canada, the United States (Northeastern, Norway and Britain) have greater cost advantages over traditional routes in choosing Arctic routes than in cases where ice-breaking services are required;Finally, compared with traditional routes, when the import and export trade between China's coastal provinces (cities) and countries along the Arctic route is carried out through the Arctic route, their waterborne cargo volume and foreign trade cargo throughput will both increase.The increases were 2.46% and 2.41%, respectively.
【学位授予单位】：上海海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F552

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