40万吨大码头资本预算研究

发布时间：2018-04-13 17:04

本文选题：大型码头 + 资本预算　；参考：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近些年来,伴随着船舶大型化和专业化的迅猛发展,打造专业化、大型化和深水化码头成为了各个港口的共识,大型码头的投资建设正在轰轰烈烈的进行着。中国在“十二五”国家交通发展规划中指出：“十二五”期间沿海港口货物吞吐量增长到78亿吨,形成合理布局、有力保障、服务高效、环保安全、管理先进的现代港口体系,使港口和码头的结构不断优化,计划新增加440个深水泊位,重点推进原油、矿石、煤炭、集装箱等专业化码头建设。码头扩建投资规模的增加,加快了我国港口的快速发展,促进了对外经济贸易,提高了我国的综合实力,但如此声势浩大的扩建,码头与船舶是否相匹配,供给与需求是否相平衡,则需要打上一个大大的问号。由于码头工程建设项目投资规模大、建设周期长,受国家产业政策及资金的时间价值等多种因素的影响,要对这类投资项目做出合理的决策,就必然需要通过资本预算进行财务评价,考察投资项目建设期和成熟期的财务状况,据此来评价项目投资的财务可行性。本文界定了大型码头的概念、资本预算的特点和方法,分析了航运经济形势和市场供需现状,以及我国大型码头的投资收益和风险,投资时机和规模。针对打造40万吨码头进行NIBS分析,通过净现值法、内部收益率法、盈亏平衡分析法、敏感性分析法对大量的数据进行分析和计算,研究结果表明,大型码头的投资存在较大的风险,收益难以支撑投入的初始成本,项目的盈利能力和清偿能力令人堪忧,我国目前还存在大量的港口盲目扩建、规模浩大,产能过剩的现象,需要引起各部门的高度重视。该研究丰富了我国大型码头投资的理论研究,同时可以为实际扩建投资提供决策依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of large-scale and specialized ships, building specialized, large-scale and deep-water wharves have become the consensus of each port.In the 12th Five-Year Plan, China pointed out: during the 12th Five-Year Plan, the throughput of cargo in coastal ports increased to 7.8 billion tons, forming a rational distribution, capable of ensuring, efficient service, environmental protection and safety, and advanced modern port system management.The structure of ports and docks has been continuously optimized and 440 new deepwater berths are planned to focus on the construction of specialized terminals such as crude oil ores coal containers and so on.The increase of investment scale of wharf expansion accelerates the rapid development of our port, promotes foreign economic and trade, and improves the comprehensive strength of our country. However, with such a huge expansion, is the dock matched with the ship?The balance between supply and demand requires a big question mark.Due to the large scale of investment and the long construction period of the wharf construction project and the influence of many factors such as the national industrial policy and the time value of the capital, it is necessary to make a reasonable decision on this kind of investment project.It is necessary to evaluate the financial situation of the investment project in the period of construction and maturity through the capital budget, and then evaluate the financial feasibility of the project investment.This paper defines the concept of large wharf, the characteristics and methods of capital budget, analyzes the shipping economic situation and the present situation of market supply and demand, as well as the investment income and risk, investment opportunity and scale of large wharf in China.NIBS analysis is carried out to build 400000 ton wharf. A lot of data are analyzed and calculated by net present value method, internal rate of return method, break-even analysis method and sensitivity analysis method. The results show that,There are great risks in the investment of large wharf, it is difficult to support the initial cost of investment, and the profitability and liquidating ability of the project are worrisome. At present, there are still a large number of blind port expansion, large scale and overcapacity in our country.Need to attract the attention of all departments.The research enriches the theoretical research on the investment of large wharf in China, and provides the decision basis for the actual investment expansion.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F275;F552.6

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