我国航运企业外部风险识别与控制研究

发布时间：2018-04-18 04:25

本文选题：航运企业 + 外部风险识别　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,随着航运价格、燃料油价格、汇率和利率水平的大幅度波动,我国航运企业经营面临着较大的外部风险,这些外部风险的直接后果是我国航运企业的财务业绩出现前所未有的低迷,如长航凤凰的资产负债率超过100%,各航运企业利润增长率出现负值,如何控制这些外部风险及外部风险对财务上的影响已成为我国航运企业亟待解决的问题,如果不能有效利用外部风险控制手段或方法管理这些外部风险,我国航运企业长期稳定的发展必然受到严重威胁。在现行的航运企业风险控制研究中,大部分只是集中于某个财务风险或市场波动风险,没有很好的将航运企业外部风险和其财务风险联系起来,没有提出完整的识别、评估和控制航运企业外部风险的方法。本文利用专家打分识别航运企业面临的外部风险,基于航运企业特有的金融特色,将金融行业的外部风险识别、评估和管理理论方法运用到航运企业外部风险管理中,形成了具有航运金融特色的外部风险控制方法和理论。本文的重点内容是航运企业外部风险识别与评估、外部风险与财务风险的关系及航运企业外部风险控制研究。首先利用图形描述外部风险源的波动趋势,利用模糊层次分析法(F-AHP)识别外部风险指标的权重。收集历年航运价格、燃料油价格、汇率和利率水平数据,再利用偏离风险、趋势风险和绝对风险计算出航运价格、燃料油价格波动风险、汇率波动风险和利率波动风险,将四类风险加权求和,计算外部风险值。准确识别和评估航运企业外部风险的前提下,分析航运企业外部风险传导机理,建立外部风险四个指标与航运企业财务风险的传导关系,再从风险传导路径提出控制外部风险传导方法,最后利用金融衍生工具提出控制航运企业外部风险的策略及方法。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the large fluctuation of shipping price, fuel oil price, exchange rate and interest rate level, the shipping enterprises in our country are facing great external risks.The direct consequence of these external risks is the unprecedented downturn in the financial performance of our shipping enterprises. For example, the assets and liabilities ratio of Cheung Hang Phoenix exceeds 100, and the profit growth rate of various shipping enterprises is negative.How to control these external risks and their financial impact has become an urgent problem for our shipping enterprises. If we can not effectively use external risk control means or methods to manage these external risks,The long-term and stable development of shipping enterprises in China is bound to be seriously threatened.In the current research on risk control of shipping enterprises, most of them only focus on some financial risk or market fluctuation risk, which does not link shipping enterprises' external risks with their financial risks, and does not provide a complete identification.Methods of assessing and controlling the external risks of shipping enterprises.In this paper, experts are used to identify the external risks faced by shipping enterprises, and based on the unique financial characteristics of shipping enterprises, the external risk identification, evaluation and management methods of financial industry are applied to the external risk management of shipping enterprises.Formed the shipping finance characteristic external risk control method and the theory.This paper focuses on the identification and evaluation of external risks of shipping enterprises, the relationship between external risks and financial risks, and the study on the control of external risks of shipping enterprises.Firstly, the fluctuation trend of external risk source is described by graph, and the weight of external risk index is identified by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP).Collect data on shipping prices, fuel oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates over the years, and then use deviation risk, trend risk and absolute risk to calculate shipping prices, fuel oil price volatility risk, exchange rate volatility risk and interest rate volatility risk,The four types of risk are weighted and summed to calculate the value of external risk.On the premise of accurately identifying and evaluating the external risks of shipping enterprises, the transmission mechanism of external risks of shipping enterprises is analyzed, and the transmission relationship between the four indexes of external risks and the financial risks of shipping enterprises is established.Then, the paper puts forward the method of controlling external risk transmission from the risk transmission path, and finally puts forward the strategy and method of controlling the external risk of shipping enterprises by using financial derivatives.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552.6

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