基于最小偏差的组合权重模型的高速公路应急能力评价

发布时间：2018-04-26 10:36

本文选题：高速公路应急管理 + 组合权重　；参考：《东北财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：高速公路作为经济社会发展的产物,已经成为人们生活的重要基础设施,是人们日常生活重要的一部分,是国民经济与社会发展的大动脉。高速公路网是城市之间的枢纽,承担着不同区域、不同省市之间的快速客货运输,是我国公路网中层次最高的骨干通道。一方面高速公路促进国民经济的快速发展,给我们的生活带来了极大的便利,但另一方面我们也不能忽视交通事故造成的人员伤亡、财产损失等负面影响。随着我国高速公路的快速发展,高速公路正朝着高速重载、密度更大、科学技术更加先进的方向发展,这意味着对高速公路突发事件的应急管理机制也提出了更高的要求。虽然我国在高速公路建设上取得了很大成就,但是由于我国高速公路发展起步较晚,而且起初对公路运营管理和应急管理重视不足导致在高速公路运营管理方面存在一些问题,在应急管理方面的研究经验也比较少,缺乏系统的理论,研究方法也没有形成全面科学系统的体系。如何借助现代化的高科技技术手段,提前预防或者及时控制各种可能引发突发事件的因素,降低高速公路各类突发事件的发生率,提高高速公路对突发事件的处理效率及应对能力,控制高速公路突发事件产生的影响,最大限度地降低事故带来的财产损失及人员伤亡,是一个刻不容缓的课题。作为维持高速公路运输系统正常运行的重要支撑体系之一的突发事件应急管理,在高速公路的安全运营方面起到了不容忽视的作用,建立一个高效的高速公路应急管理体系不仅仅是促进高速公路体系的发展,其对社会的稳定的维护、和谐社会的创造、经济发展的促进,都具有十分重要的意义。而应急能力是高速公路应急管理体系中的核心部分,高速公路应急能力评估是在高速公路应急管理研究的基础上,借助合理科学的评价理论和方法,对高速公路应急管理中存在的优势和不足进行定性或定量或定性和定量相结合的分析。本文在紧紧把握突发事件应急能力的核心与内涵的基础上,对我国高速公路应急能力进行了较为深入的分析和研究,构建了高速公路应急能力评价指标体系,重点分析了高速公路突发事件应急能力指标体系权重的确定方法,构建了一个基于最小偏差组合赋权的突发事件应急能力评价模型。首先,本文对高速公路的应急管理和应急能力评价进行了研究和分析,主要包括应急管理的目标、应急管理预案、应急管理机制、应急管理组织机制、应急运行机制以及应急能力评价流程分析,并在此基础上建立了基于过程管理的高速公路突发事件应急能力评价的指标体系,包括4个准则层,22个指标层。其次,本文运用二元语义层次分析法、基于熵值法的二元语义赋权法、G1赋权法三种赋权方法分别来确定各评价指标的权重,然后两次运用最小偏差的理念构建一个基于最小偏差的组合权重确定模型来确定准则层的复合权重,并计算高速公路应急能力评价值的应急能力评价。最后,本文以上海高速公路为评价对象,通过对上海高速公路突发事件应急能力进行评价,验证了模型的可行性,同时对指标进行了敏感性分析,最后根据评价的结论,提出了几条加强上海高速公路应急能力的建议。
[Abstract]:As the product of economic and social development, freeway has become an important infrastructure of people's life. It is an important part of people's daily life. It is the major artery of national economy and social development. The highway network is the hub between cities and bears different regions and fast passenger and freight transportation between different provinces and cities. It is the road network of our country. On the one hand, the expressway promotes the rapid development of the national economy and brings great convenience to our life. On the other hand, we can not ignore the casualties caused by traffic accidents, property loss and other negative effects. With the rapid development of the expressway in China, the expressway is facing high speed and heavy load. With greater density and more advanced science and technology, this means higher requirements for the emergency management mechanism of highway emergencies.
Although China has made great achievements in the construction of highway, the development of the highway in China started late, and at first, there are some problems in the management of highway operation and management, and there are some problems in the management of highway operation. The research method has not formed a comprehensive system of scientific system. How to use modern high-tech technology to prevent or control all kinds of unexpected events in advance, reduce the occurrence rate of all kinds of emergencies, improve the efficiency and ability to deal with emergencies, control the freeway The impact of emergencies, to minimize the loss of property and casualties caused by accidents, is an urgent task. Emergency management, as one of the important support systems for the maintenance of the normal operation of the highway transportation system, has played an important role in the safety operation of the expressway. An efficient expressway emergency management system is not only to promote the development of the expressway system, but also is of great significance to the maintenance of social stability, the creation of a harmonious society, and the promotion of economic development. The emergency ability is the core part of the emergency management system of the expressway, and the evaluation of the emergency capability of the expressway is the assessment of the expressway emergency. On the basis of the research on emergency management of expressway, with the help of reasonable scientific evaluation theory and method, the advantages and disadvantages of expressway emergency management are analyzed qualitatively, quantitatively, qualitatively and quantitatively.
On the basis of grasping the core and connotation of emergency emergency ability, this paper makes a more in-depth analysis and Research on the emergency capability of the expressway in China, constructs the evaluation index system of the emergency capability of the expressway, and focuses on the analysis of the method of determining the weight of the emergency response energy index system of the expressway. A contingency capability evaluation model based on minimum deviation combination weighting is proposed.
First of all, this paper studies and analyzes the emergency management and emergency ability evaluation of the expressway, mainly including the target of emergency management, emergency management plan, emergency management mechanism, emergency management organization mechanism, emergency operation mechanism and emergency capability evaluation process analysis, and on this basis, a high speed public process management based management is established. The evaluation index system of road emergency capability includes 4 criteria levels and 22 index levels.
Secondly, this paper uses the two element semantic analytic hierarchy process, based on the two meta semantic empowerment method of entropy method, and three weighting methods of G1 empowerment method to determine the weight of each evaluation index respectively. Then the two times the minimum deviation concept is used to construct a combination weight determination model based on the minimum deviation to determine the compound weight of the standard layer and calculate the high level. Evaluation of emergency capability of speed highway emergency capability evaluation value.
Finally, this paper takes the Shanghai expressway as the evaluation object, evaluates the emergency capability of Shanghai expressway, validates the feasibility of the model, and analyses the sensitivity of the index. Finally, according to the conclusion of the evaluation, some suggestions are put forward to strengthen the emergency capacity of the Shanghai highway.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F542

【参考文献】