中国高速铁路与民航竞争博弈建模及实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-28 07:46

本文选题：高速铁路 + 民航　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，随着中国高速铁路事业的迅猛发展，，高速铁路在我国的产生和发展给民众出行带来新的选择的同时，与传统运输方式，比如航空运输等展开了激烈的市场争夺战，并且以其自身优势吸引了相当一部分市场客流，尤其是在中短途距离运输中表现的极其明显。2009年3月份，春秋航空公司郑州至上海航线在与高铁竞争了17个月后，被迫停飞；武广高铁全线后，武汉到宜昌、襄阳以及宜昌到恩施等航线，相继宣布停飞。但是中国高铁境况也不容乐观，至2011年6月份，中国已运营的5条高铁线亏损严重。我国高速铁路前期投资巨大、各项运营成本持续走高，又在2011年7月发生了重大动车追尾事故，我国高速铁路管理体制与运营体系缺憾由此引起了全社会的关注。民航作为中长距离客运的主要运输方式，经过几十年的发展已经拥有了成熟的运营体系和相对稳定的客源，并且各大航空公司针对高速铁路的来势汹汹，都进行了充分的战略调整和部署，采取了降价、缩短登机时间等措施，而且民航相较于其他交通方式而言具有纯运行速度快、票价制定灵活、可跨越所有天然屏障等特点，有效的遏制了高速铁路的威胁。但是，随着高速铁路的各项管理制度的逐渐完善、旅客对高速铁路的认识逐渐趋于理性以及高铁所具有的独特政治优势，使得民航未来发展危机重重。根据目前我国高速铁路与民航的竞争情况，本文首先讨论了高速铁路与民航的主要竞争距离范围。即存在某个临界距离，在这个临界距离之下，旅客乘坐高速铁路耗费的总时间小于乘坐飞机的总时间，且高铁票价小于机票价格，此时高速铁路占据竞争的绝对优势地位。同时存在另一个临界距离，在这个临界距离之上，选择民航的总旅行时间小于高铁，且高铁票价与民航机票所差无几，此时民航占据竞争的绝对优势地位，这两个临界距离之间，便是高速铁路与民航的主要竞争距离范围；然后将出行方式的特性进行合理的量化，计算旅客选择不同出行方式时得到的期望支付，建立旅客出行效益模型，又利用LOGIT模型，建立客运分担率模型；最后建立高速铁路与民航的竞争博弈模型，高速铁路与民航的总利润等于其总营业收入与总成本之差，并得到高速铁路与民航的最终博弈均衡。通过研究，获得了以下研究成果与研究结论。旅客出行效益模型与客运分担率模型表明，高速铁路在主要竞争范围内占据着优势地位，但是优势并不明显，尤其是在运输淡季，民航机票折扣力度加大，有力的争夺了大量客源，高速铁路上座率持续走低，再加之其高昂的运营成本，其运营状况令人堪忧。在中长距离运输市场中，高速铁路与民航的竞争关系是一个明显的双寡头博弈关系。根据典型的双寡头博弈模型，以价格为竞争手段，建立了高速铁路与民航的双寡头竞争博弈模型。然后以京沪高铁为例进行实证研究，求得目前中国高速铁路与民航实现各自效益最大化和博弈均衡的价格体系。实证研究的最终结果表明，民航的单位运价率均低于目前的运行价格，高速铁路价格高于目前的运行价格，说明目前我国京沪高铁价格管理体系更加合理，但是目前的高速铁路还没有公布标准的价格制定规范，各条高速铁路线路价格相差较大，例如武广高铁与京沪高铁的单位运价率就存在着较大不同。长此以往，高速铁路的发展也必将走入困境。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid development of the high speed railway in China, high speed railway has brought new choices to the public travel in China, while it has launched a fierce market competition with the traditional transport mode, such as air transportation, and has attracted a considerable number of market passenger flows with its own advantages, especially in the middle and short distance. During the distance transportation, it was very obvious that in March.2009 year, the Zhengzhou to Shanghai route of spring and Autumn Airlines was forced to stop after 17 months of competition with the high speed rail. After the full line of Wuhan Guangzhou high speed railway, Wuhan to Yichang, Xiangyang and Yichang to Enshi announced the suspension of flight. But the situation of China's high speed rail was not optimistic, until June 2011, China The 5 high iron lines that have been operated are badly lost. The high speed railway in our country has a huge initial investment, and the operating costs continue to go high. In July 2011, a major car rear end accident occurred. The defects of our high speed railway management system and operation system have caused the attention of the whole society.
As the main transport mode of middle and long distance passenger transport, civil aviation has developed a mature operation system and relatively stable passenger source after decades of development, and the major airlines have carried out full strategic adjustment and deployment in view of the turbulence of high-speed railway, and have taken measures to reduce the price, shorten the boarding time and so on, and the civil aviation phase Compared with other modes of transportation, it has the characteristics of fast speed, flexible fare, and all natural barriers, which effectively contain the threat of high speed railway. However, with the gradual improvement of various management systems of high speed railway, the understanding of passengers to high speed railway gradually tends to rational and the unique politics of high speed railway. The superiority has made the civil aviation development crisis in the future.
According to the current competition between high speed railway and civil aviation in our country, the main competitive distance between high speed railway and civil aviation is discussed first, that is, there is a critical distance. Under this critical distance, the total time spent by passengers on high speed railway is less than the total time of the plane, and the high speed rail fare is less than the ticket price, and the high speed railway is higher than the ticket price. The speed railway occupies an absolute dominant position in the competition. At the same time, there is another critical distance. On this critical distance, the total travel time of the civil aviation is less than the high speed rail, and the price of the high speed rail is almost the same as that of the civil air ticket. At this time civil aviation occupies an absolute dominant position in the competition. Between these two critical distances, it is the owner of the high speed railway and the civil aviation. In order to compete with the range of distance, the characteristics of the travel mode are quantified, the expected payment for different travel modes are calculated, the model of passenger travel benefit is established, and the model of LOGIT is used to establish the model of passenger sharing rate. Finally, the competition game model of high speed railway and civil aviation is established, and the high-speed railway and civil aviation are established. The total profit is equal to the difference between total operating income and total cost, and the final game equilibrium between high-speed railway and civil aviation is obtained.
Through research, the following research results and conclusions are obtained.
The model of passenger travel benefit and the model of passenger transport share rate show that the high speed railway occupies the dominant position in the main competition range, but the advantage is not obvious, especially in the low season of transportation, the air ticket discount intensity is increased, a large number of passenger sources are vigorously contended, the high speed railway seat rate continues to be low, and the high operating cost is added to the high speed railway. The condition of the camp is worrying.
In the medium and long distance transportation market, the competitive relationship between high speed railway and civil aviation is an obvious dual oligopoly game relationship. According to the typical dual oligopoly game model, the dual oligopoly competition game model of high speed railway and civil aviation is set up with the price as the competitive means. Then the case of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is taken as an example to find the high China. The final result of the empirical study shows that the unit freight rate of the civil aviation is lower than the current operating price, the price of the high speed railway is higher than the current operating price. It shows that the price management system of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is more reasonable at present, but the current high speed railway There is no standard price formulation, and the prices of various high-speed railway lines vary greatly. For example, the unit freight rate of the Wuhan Guangzhou high railway and Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway is quite different.

【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F532;F562.6;F224.32

【参考文献】