低碳视角下的城市交通发展路径研究

发布时间：2018-05-09 10:46

本文选题：低碳城市 + 低碳交通　；参考：《江南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：全球化背景下,城市面临着资源严重短缺、生活贫富不均、环境污染严重、交通拥堵明显等一系列问题。低碳发展已经成为21世纪城市可持续发展的重要内容。低碳城市的内涵是以城市空间为载体,发展低碳经济,建设低碳交通,实施低碳建筑,转变居民消费观念,从而达到最大限度的减少温室气体的排放。建设新型低碳城市,是需求社会长远和谐发展的必然选择,更是解决全球气候变化问题和能源安全问题的重要途径。城市交通作为城市活动的主要承担者,担负着不可推卸的减排责任。减少城市交通能耗,降低交通碳排放,以全新的视角审视城市低碳机动化的要求,积极探索更高效、更节能、更清洁的可持续性城市交通发展模式,以绿色GDP推动低碳经济的发展,是城市交通系统必须直面的挑战。首先,论文从上述背景出发,分析了城市建设低碳交通的重要性和必然性,指出论文的选题具有较强的现实意义。其次,论文在归纳国内外研究的基础上,分析了我国交通运输业发展和能耗的现状,并以无锡为例,对城市交通碳排放现状做了深入研究,分析了城市交通碳足迹。第三,综合国内外研究,结合无锡实际,筛选出十个对城市交通碳排放有显著影响的指标,并建立了基于偏最小二乘法的无锡市城市交通二氧化碳排放的影响因素模型。最后,通过MATLAB编程对模型进行模拟运算和检验分析,并针对给出了无锡市发展低碳交通的建议措施。论文建立的基于偏最小二乘算法的无锡市城市交通二氧化碳排放的影响因素模型包涵了以下几个对城市交通二氧化碳排放有显著影响的因素,它们是城市人口、社会经济发展水平、居民购买力、新技术的研发、公共交通分担情况、道路拥堵水平、居民出行需求和货运需求。论文得出的结论有:(1)城市交通碳排放的主要影响因素有城市机动车数量、公交车日均载客量、人均道路面积、城市人口和居民年收入水平。(2)公交车日均载客量与城市交通碳排量负相关。公交车日均载客量越多,意味着越多的居民在出行时偏好选择乘坐公交车,越少的居民选择乘坐出租车或私家车,从而降低城市的人均碳排量。(3)对低碳新技术和新能源的研发投入可以减少城市交通的碳排量但是影响效果尚不显著。论文的创新点有:(1)归纳总结出一个对城市交通二氧化碳有显著影响的因素集合。(2)建立了基于偏最小二乘算法的城市交通碳排放影响因素模型并验证了模型的合理性和有效性。(3)针对模型的分析结果,给出了有建设性的城市发展低碳交通的可行路径,对无锡市发展低碳交通有一定的促进作用。
[Abstract]:Under the background of globalization, cities are faced with a series of problems, such as serious shortage of resources, uneven life, serious environmental pollution and obvious traffic jam. Low-carbon development has become an important content of urban sustainable development in the 21 st century. The connotation of low carbon city is to develop low carbon economy, build low carbon transportation, implement low carbon building and change residents' consumption concept, so as to reduce greenhouse gas emission to the maximum extent. The construction of a new low-carbon city is an inevitable choice for the long-term harmonious development of the needs society and an important way to solve the global climate change and energy security problems. As the main carrier of urban activities, urban traffic is shouldering the unshirkable responsibility of emission reduction. To reduce urban transportation energy consumption, reduce traffic carbon emissions, examine the requirements of urban low-carbon motorization from a new perspective, and actively explore more efficient, more energy efficient and cleaner sustainable urban transport development model. Using green GDP to promote the development of low-carbon economy is a challenge that urban transportation system must face directly. First of all, the thesis analyzes the importance and inevitability of low-carbon traffic in urban construction from the above background, and points out that the topic of the thesis has strong practical significance. Secondly, based on the research at home and abroad, the paper analyzes the development and energy consumption of transportation industry in China, and takes Wuxi as an example, makes a deep study on the current situation of urban traffic carbon emissions, and analyzes the urban traffic carbon footprint. Thirdly, based on the domestic and foreign research and the actual situation in Wuxi, ten indexes which have significant influence on urban traffic carbon dioxide emission are selected, and the model of influencing factors of urban traffic carbon dioxide emission in Wuxi city based on partial least square method is established. Finally, the model is simulated and analyzed by MATLAB programming, and some suggestions for developing low-carbon traffic in Wuxi are given. Based on partial least square algorithm, the model of influencing factors of urban traffic carbon dioxide emissions in Wuxi city includes the following factors, which are urban population. Level of social and economic development, purchasing power of residents, research and development of new technologies, public transport sharing, road congestion level, residents' travel demand and freight demand. The main influencing factors of urban traffic carbon emissions are the number of urban motor vehicles, the average daily carrying capacity of buses, the per capita road area. The average daily carrying capacity of buses is negatively correlated with the carbon emission of urban traffic. The more passengers a bus carries each day, the more residents prefer to take the bus when they travel, and the fewer people choose to take a taxi or private car. Thus reducing the per capita carbon emission of cities.) the R & D investment in low-carbon new technologies and new energy can reduce the carbon emissions of urban traffic, but the effect is not significant. The innovation of this paper is: (1) summarize a set of factors that have significant influence on carbon dioxide in urban traffic. (2) establish the model of influencing factors of urban traffic carbon emissions based on partial least squares algorithm and verify the rationality of the model. Based on the results of the analysis of the model, The feasible path of developing low-carbon transportation in Wuxi city is given, which can promote the development of low-carbon transportation in Wuxi city.
【学位授予单位】：江南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F205;F572

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