基于系统动力学的铁路安全经济决策分析

发布时间：2018-05-12 06:41

本文选题：安全经济 + 铁路安全　；参考：《北京交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：摘要：近年来,中国铁路的高速发展吸引了全世界的目光,铁路也在逐渐成为旅客出行的首选交通方式。因此,铁路运输安全不仅关系到生命财产安全,还会引发诸多社会问题以及国际社会的密切关注。我国铁路行业向来将安全生产摆在至关重要的位置地位,并从日常安全监察、法律法规、安全技术等方面投入大量资源以保障铁路安全运营。但是,由于我国铁路系统的复杂性以及运输任务繁重,铁路安全形势仍然不容乐观。因此,仍旧需要加大铁路安全投入以改善整个铁路系统的安全水平。进行铁路安全投资决策分析可以提高铁路企业安全问题的可控性,有助于铁路企业进行合理的安全战略决策以及企业进行合理的资源配置。本文立足铁路安全投资与安全绩效的关系,建立铁路安全投资系统动力学模型,并进行动态预测,确定各投资因素对安全系统的影响度。然后,模拟不同投资方案,比较其对铁路系统安全总水平的影响程度。得出结论：铁路安全投资非常必要,而且是一个需要长期持续投入的过程,另外,不同安全投资方向对铁路系统安全整体水平的影响存在差异,铁路安全技术影响程度最大,其后分别为日常安全管理投入、安全教育水平、卫生措施以及劳保品,在进行投资决策时应有先后、有侧重。本论文有图13幅,表20个,参考文献47篇。
[Abstract]:Absrtact: in recent years, the rapid development of Chinese railway has attracted the attention of the whole world, and railway has gradually become the preferred mode of transportation for passengers. Therefore, the safety of railway transportation is not only related to the safety of life and property, but also causes a lot of social problems and the close attention of the international community. China's railway industry has always placed safety production in a crucial position, and has invested a great deal of resources in daily safety supervision, laws and regulations, safety technology and so on to ensure the safe operation of railway. However, due to the complexity of China's railway system and heavy transport tasks, the railway safety situation is still not optimistic. Therefore, there is still a need to increase railway safety investment to improve the safety level of the entire railway system. The analysis of railway safety investment decision can improve the controllability of safety problems in railway enterprises. It is helpful for railway enterprises to make rational safety strategic decisions and to allocate resources reasonably. Based on the relationship between railway safety investment and safety performance, the dynamic model of railway safety investment system is established, and the dynamic prediction is made to determine the influence of various investment factors on safety system. Then, different investment schemes are simulated to compare their influence on the overall level of railway system safety. It is concluded that railway safety investment is very necessary and needs long-term continuous investment. In addition, the influence of different safety investment directions on the overall level of railway system safety is different, and the impact of railway safety technology is the greatest. After that, the investment in daily safety management, safety education level, health measures and labor insurance products should be emphasized in the investment decision. There are 13 figures, 20 tables and 47 references in this paper.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F532.3;N941.3

【参考文献】