多式联运货物运输方式选择行为机理与双层博弈模型研究

发布时间：2018-05-13 01:42

本文选题：多式联运 + 行为分析　；参考：《兰州交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：货物运输系统组成复杂,多种多样的货物类型,各种组合的运输方式,以及影响运输的各种外部环境相互制约相互影响。伴随着运输数量以及质量需求的不断变化,单一运输方式很难完成现今大运量、快捷性运输的要求,使用两种及以上运输方式合作的方式,在一定的技术支持下,快速便捷安全地完成运输任务就是首要任务。本论文主要通过如下分析:(1)通过多式联运运输方式需求分析以及技术经济特征分析,设计多式联运货运方式选择最优组合赋权可变模糊模型,对影响各种运输方式因素进行综合分析。(2)行为的产生都是为完成行为目标而努力的,行为目标最终作用者可能是个人,群体或者整个社会整体。分析了多式联运货运方式选择利益相关者目标及行为机理,为货物运输方式选择相关模型分析奠定了一定的理论基础。(3)构建了托运人与承运人货运方式选择博弈模型,研究铁路货运托运人和承运人运输方式选择行为博弈,基于动态博弈过程提出多式联运货运发展建议。然后模拟用例,通过设计的基于最优反应动态的遗传算法完成模型的快速求解,验证了模型的可行性,证明了博弈论适用于货物运输方式选择分析与研究。(4)基于多式联运运输管理者提出了一种基于多Agent的多式联运运输方案动态规划模型,重点设计了一种自主协商机制,讨论了承运人为获得最大利润,与运输管理者为实现运输成本最低进行的博弈过程。其次,考虑自主性,设计了一种自主协商机制,采用拉格朗日松弛算法求解时间约束下的最短路径问题,解决了多式联运路径选择问题。最后,通过模拟实验,验证了模型的可行性。(5)对多式联运货物运输方式选择过程中的利益相关者进行双层博弈分析,将联运管理者与承运人之间的博弈过程,托运人与承运人之间的博弈过程,作为多式联运货运方式选择双层博弈模型的上下两层,并对上下层博弈过程进行模型分析,最后通过三步法,简化模型求解难度,完成了双层模型的快速求解,最后模拟用例,验证了双层博弈模型的求解过程。
[Abstract]:Cargo transport systems consist of complex, diverse types of goods, various combinations of modes of transport, and various external environments that affect transport, which interact with each other. With the continuous change of transportation quantity and quality demand, it is very difficult for a single mode of transportation to fulfill the requirements of large volume and rapid transportation, to use two or more modes of transportation cooperation, with the support of certain technology. The most important task is to complete the transportation task quickly, conveniently and safely. This thesis mainly through the following analysis: 1) through the multimodal transport mode demand analysis and the technical and economic characteristic analysis, designs the multimodal transport mode choice optimal combination weight variable fuzzy model, Comprehensive analysis of factors affecting various modes of transport. 2) the behavior of the generation is to achieve the goal of the behavior, the ultimate role of the behavior goal may be individuals, groups or the whole society as a whole. This paper analyzes the target and behavior mechanism of the multi-modal freight mode selection stakeholders, establishes a certain theoretical foundation for the analysis of the related model of freight transport mode selection, and constructs a game model of shippers' and carriers' freight mode selection. This paper studies the behavior game of railway freight shipper and carrier, and puts forward some suggestions on the development of multimodal freight transport based on the dynamic game process. Then, the feasibility of the model is verified by the design of the genetic algorithm based on the optimal response dynamics to complete the fast solution of the model. It is proved that game theory is suitable for the analysis and research of freight transport mode selection. (4) based on multimodal transport manager, a dynamic programming model of multimodal transport scheme based on multimodal transport is proposed, and an autonomous negotiation mechanism is designed. In order to obtain the maximum profit, the game process between the carrier and the transport manager to achieve the lowest transportation cost is discussed. Secondly, considering autonomy, an autonomous negotiation mechanism is designed. Lagrangian relaxation algorithm is used to solve the shortest path problem under time constraints, and the path selection problem of multimodal transport is solved. Finally, through simulation experiments, the feasibility of the model is verified. (5) the two-layer game analysis is carried out on the stakeholders in the process of selecting the multimodal transport mode of goods, and the game process between the manager of the combined transport and the carrier is put forward. The game process between shippers and carriers, as a multimodal transport mode, selects the upper and lower layers of the bilevel game model, and analyzes the upper and lower layers of the game process. Finally, through the three-step method, the difficulty of solving the model is simplified. The fast solution of the bilevel model is completed. Finally, the process of solving the bilevel game model is verified by simulating the use case.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F512.4

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