沈阳市公路运输与经济发展关系研究

发布时间：2018-05-16 06:48

本文选题：公路运输 + 生产总值　；参考：《辽宁大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文主要采用了1995年至2010年十六年的数据来验证沈阳市公路运输与城市本身经济发展之间的关系。其中公路运输选取的数据包括沈阳市的公路里程、市民汽车保有量、公路客运量和公路货运量。城市的经济指标则选取的是沈阳市的地区生产总值（GDP）。在对数据进行分析时，发现一些数据随着时间的推移存在着一种上升或下降的趋势，，而不是围绕一个定值上下波动，这说明这些数据存在单位根，是非平稳的数据。当应用非平稳的数据对模型进行估计时，就会得到伪回归。所谓的伪回归是指，应用非平稳的时间序列数据进行模型估计时，同样可以得到理想的结果，既可决系数较高，t检验和F检验的结果也非常显著。但所得到模型却和实际情况出现不相符，甚至是相违背的情况，这就是伪回归。伪回归产生的原因就是因为这些时间序列数据是非平稳的。由于这些非平稳数据的存在，传统的时间序列分析方法便不能使用。但现实中有些时间序列数据虽然是非平稳的，但他们彼此之间却确确实实存在着一定的相关关系，协整理论的出现便很好的解决了这一问题。对每一项时间序列数据进行单位根检验，当每一项时间序列数据都是同阶单整的时候，便可以进行估计得到彼此之间的协整关系。本文应用了协整理论，对公路里程、市民汽车保有量、公路客运量、公路货运量与沈阳市地区生产总值之间的关系进行了实证分析。得出了公路里程和生产总值、市民汽车保有量和生产总值、公路客运量和生产总值及公路货运量和生产总值之间的协整关系。最后，根据模型并结合重庆市的相关数据进行比较，总结出了沈阳市公路运输在公路里程、汽车保有量、公路客运量和公路货运量等方面存在的一些不足，并找出产生这些问题的原因，最后提出一些建议用以解决和改进相关的问题，从而使沈阳市的公路运输能更好的为城市的经济建设服务。
[Abstract]:This paper mainly uses the data of sixteen years from 1995 to 2010 to verify the relationship between highway transportation in Shenyang and the economic development of the city itself. The data of highway transportation selected include the road mileage of Shenyang, the amount of citizens' car ownership, the volume of highway passenger transport and the volume of highway freight. The economic indicators of the city are selected in Shenyang. Gross Regional Product (GDP).
In the analysis of the data, it is found that some data have a trend of rising or falling over time rather than around a fixed value, which indicates that these data exist unit roots and are non-stationary data. When using non-stationary data to estimate the model, the pseudo regression will be obtained. It means that when the non stationary time series data is used to estimate the model, the ideal result can be obtained, the result of the higher coefficient is higher, the result of t test and the F test is very significant. But the model is not consistent with the actual situation, even the case of phase violation. This is the pseudo regression. The reason for the pseudo regression is because of the reason why the pseudo regression is caused by the result of the pseudo regression. These time series data are non stationary. Because of the existence of these non-stationary data, the traditional time series analysis method can not be used. However, although some time series data are nonstationary in reality, there are certain correlation relations between them. The emergence of cointegration theory is a good solution to this one. Problem. Unit root test for each time series data, when each time series data are identical single order, it is possible to estimate the cointegration relationship between each time series.
This paper uses cointegration theory to make an empirical analysis on the relationship between highway mileage, citizen's car ownership, highway passenger volume, road freight volume and Shenyang District gross product. The road mileage and gross product, public car ownership and gross production, public road passenger volume and gross production, highway freight volume and production total are obtained. Cointegration relations between values.
In the end, according to the model and the relative data of Chongqing City, this paper summarizes the shortcomings of highway transportation in Shenyang, such as highway mileage, car ownership, highway passenger volume and highway freight volume, and finds out the reasons for these problems. Finally, some suggestions are put forward to solve and improve the related problems, so as to solve and improve the related problems, So that the highway transportation in Shenyang can better serve the city's economic construction.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F127;F542.8

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