京津冀交通运输与区域经济耦合研究

发布时间：2018-05-17 17:13

本文选题：交通可达性 + 经济质量　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着京津冀协同发展等一系列政策的出台,将京津冀打造成为继长三角和珠三角的第三增长极这一愿景提升至国家战略高度。交通一体化作为京津冀协同发展的首要任务无疑会给该区域带来提振作用。然而,京津冀交通与经济发展的协调情况如何,规划修建新线路之后又会对两者的协调性带来怎样的影响,本文将通过对这些问题进行深入分析并提取结论,以便为学者们今后的研究提供参考,同时更是为政府部门出台规划方案提供优化建议和参考,因此研究具有比较大的实践意义和理论指导意义。本文基于国内外相关研究较为全面地对区域空间结构理论以及交通与经济的相互作用机制进行了理论方面的研究梳理。在实证研究方面,本文选取耦合模型搭建了交通运输和区域经济两个子系统,并分别采取了可达性模型和主成分分析方法构建综合评价指标体系,对京津冀13个城市在2014年的交通和经济发展质量进行定量分析。其中在可达性模型中加入客货运量指标进行改进得到交通发展水平,与经济质量进行耦合协调度测算分析,得到京津冀地区的交通运输与区域经济耦合协调性分布图;之后采取灰色预测模型对2020年的经济指标进行预测,并利用ArcGIS软件中的OD成本矩阵得到交通规划实施后2020年交通发展水平,从而得到预测情况下的两个子系统耦合协调度。进而通过2014年和2020年的结果比较交通规划的实施对京津冀区域交通和经济耦合情况的影响程度。结果表明2014年北京和天津处于京津冀发展格局中最高层级,是两个核心,耦合协调度高达0.83和0.71,属于优质协调型。而河北省各城市的耦合协调性比较差,耦合协调度均处于0.4以下较低水平;而在修建交通线路之后的2020年,各城市的协调情况改善程度均达到3%-10%,尤其以规划方案中直接涉及的张家口和承德改善程度最为显著,分别提高了 10%和8%;同时,京津冀区域的整体差异性有了明显改善。其耦合协调度的标准差由2014年的0.259缩减为2020年的0.247,改善程度达到4.67%;其区域交通可达性由0.932缩减为0.846,改善程度9.260%;经济质量改善程度为14.140%。说明交通一体化推动了京津冀区域整体发展,使其水平差距减小。
[Abstract]:With the introduction of a series of policies such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei coordinated development, the vision of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei to become the third growth pole after the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta has been raised to a national strategic height. Transportation integration, as the primary task of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, will undoubtedly give a boost to the region. However, how well the traffic and economic development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are coordinated, and how will the planning and construction of the new line affect the coordination of the two? this paper will make a thorough analysis of these problems and draw conclusions. In order to provide a reference for the scholars in the future study, but also for the government to put forward the planning plan to provide optimization advice and reference, so the study has a relatively large practical and theoretical significance. In this paper, the theory of regional spatial structure and the mechanism of interaction between traffic and economy are comprehensively studied based on the domestic and foreign studies. In the aspect of empirical research, this paper selects the coupling model to build two subsystems of transportation and regional economy, and adopts the reachability model and principal component analysis method to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system. The quality of transportation and economic development of 13 cities in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in 2014 was analyzed quantitatively. In the reachability model, the transportation development level is obtained by adding the passenger and freight volume index to improve, and the coupling coordination degree with the economic quality is calculated and analyzed, and the distribution map of the transportation and regional economic coupling coordination in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is obtained. Then the grey forecasting model is used to predict the economic index in 2020, and the OD cost matrix in ArcGIS software is used to get the level of traffic development in 2020 after the implementation of traffic planning, and the coupling coordination degree between the two subsystems is obtained. Through the results of 2014 and 2020, the impact of traffic planning on the traffic and economic coupling in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was compared. The results showed that Beijing and Tianjin were at the highest level in the development pattern of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 2014 and were the two core. The coupling coordination degree was as high as 0.83 and 0.71, so they belonged to the high-quality coordination type. However, the coupling coordination of cities in Hebei Province is poor, and the degree of coupling coordination is lower than 0.4, and in 2020 after the construction of traffic lines, The coordination degree of each city reached 3- 10, especially the degree of improvement of Zhangjiakou and Chengde, which were directly involved in the planning scheme, increased by 10% and 8% respectively, and the overall difference of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was obviously improved. The standard deviation of the coupling coordination degree is reduced from 0.259 in 2014 to 0.247 in 2020, and the degree of improvement is 4.67, the regional traffic accessibility is reduced from 0.932 to 0.846, the degree of improvement is 9.260, and the degree of economic quality improvement is 14.140. It shows that the integration of traffic promotes the overall development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, and reduces the level gap.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F127;F512.7

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