基于模糊贝叶斯网络的港口船舶溢油风险评价

发布时间：2018-05-18 04:20

本文选题：船舶溢油 + 贝叶斯网络　；参考：《大连海事大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的高速发展,贸易量不断增加,海运以其低运费、运量大的优势承担着我国货物进出口的主要任务,然而,一系列的港口船舶溢油事故不仅造成巨额的经济损失,也给海洋生态环境、渔业以及旅游业带来了严重影响。2010年大连港“7.16”爆炸事故油泄漏事件、2013年青岛港“11.26”输油管道爆炸事故将人们关注的目光集中到了港口油品安全上来,且这两起安全事故都是在油品作业过程发生的。基于此背景,本文针对我国港口船舶作业现状,对影响港口船舶溢油的因素进行全面识别,并构建了安全评价模型,以解决现阶段我国港口船舶安全管理中需要迫切解决的问题。本文在对国内外港口船舶溢油相关统计资料和文献分析的基础上,以港口船舶靠港装卸作业溢油风险为研究视角,理论探讨与实证分析相结合,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的分析方法,以综合评价为基础,对港口船舶靠港装卸作业溢油风险进行了深入的研究和探讨。首先,识别出了港口船舶靠港装卸作业溢油风险的影响因素,根据各因素的因果关系构建了港口船舶溢油风险贝叶斯网络拓扑结构,并确定了各节点的取值范围；然后,综合运用贝叶斯条件概率模型及三角模糊数处理方法,获得了贝叶斯网络结构中各节点变量的条件概率；在此基础上利用GeNIe软件进行了概率推理和风险因素灵敏度分析；最后,以我国沿海4个港口为例进行了实际评价。研究结果表明运用模糊贝叶斯网络模型评价港口船舶溢油风险问题是合理和有效的,不仅可为港口和船舶安全管理等制度的制定提供理论依据,也验证了应用模糊贝叶斯网络评价港口船舶溢油风险的方法是一种科学有效的方法。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's economy and the increasing trade volume, the sea transportation bears the main task of our country's import and export of goods because of its advantages of low freight and large volume. However, a series of port ship oil spill accidents not only cause huge economic losses. It has also had a serious impact on the marine ecological environment, fisheries and tourism. The oil spill from the "7.16" explosion accident at Dalian Port in 2010 and the "11.26" oil pipeline explosion at Qingdao Port in 2013 have focused people's attention on the safety of oil products in the port. And these two safety accidents occurred in the course of the oil operation. Based on this background, according to the current situation of port ship operation in China, the factors affecting oil spill of port ship are comprehensively identified, and the safety evaluation model is constructed. In order to solve the problems that need to be solved urgently in the port ship safety management of our country at present. Based on the statistical data and literature analysis of the oil spill of port ships at home and abroad, this paper combines the theoretical and empirical analysis with the risk of oil spill in port loading and unloading operations. Based on the comprehensive evaluation, the risk of oil spill in loading and unloading operations of port ships is studied and discussed with the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Firstly, the influencing factors of oil spill risk of port ship loading and unloading operations are identified. According to the causality of each factor, the Bayesian network topology structure of port ship oil spill risk is constructed, and the value range of each node is determined. Using Bayesian conditional probability model and triangular fuzzy number processing method, the conditional probability of each node variable in Bayesian network structure is obtained. On this basis, probability reasoning and risk factor sensitivity analysis are carried out by using GeNIe software. Finally, The actual evaluation of four ports along the coast of China is carried out. The results show that it is reasonable and effective to use the fuzzy Bayesian network model to evaluate the oil spill risk of port ships, which can not only provide theoretical basis for the establishment of the system of port and ship safety management. It is also proved that the fuzzy Bayesian network is a scientific and effective method to evaluate the oil spill risk of port ships.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F552

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