徽杭高速公路BOT项目的风险评估与分担方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 18:00

本文选题：高速公路 + BOT　；参考：《南京理工大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：风险管理作为项目管理的内容之一,对项目管理的整体性和最终的目标实现有着极大的影响。在采取BOT项目融资的方式进行项目建设时,其风险管理的过程是受到诸多因素影响的。诸如国内外政治、经济因素的改变,项目参与方之间的协调合作,投融资的结构选择,项目资金的来源等问题都会对项目的建设进程产生影响,这些问题同样会影响到项目的运营成本和运营期的经济强度,以上问题只有通过正确地对项目风险进行识别、评估、分析并在此基础上通过合理的风险分担实现对风险的动态控制,才能够得到彻底的解决。目前在风险评估中面对参与决策主体过多、决策意见模糊复杂而量化困难、或者决策意见量化结果失真等问题,学术界提出的解决办法还不是很充分和系统,本文由这一问题展开,希望能对BOT项目的风险管理提供建议。本文从项目整体视角出发,对BOT模式的高速公路项目风险因素进行了分析识别,概述了不同风险主体所面临的主要风险。综合了项目融资决策过程中的各方因素,从项目整体出发,考虑参与项目的各利益相关方,有代表性地选取风险评估指标,运用模糊多属性决策的原理设计了一个BOT项目的风险评估排序模型。该模型使用了动态多目标决策的方法,并结合本文案例,使用本文建立的风险排序模型帮助其解决决策问题。本模型比之传统模型,其优势在于结构更为简单,便于理解,决策信息量在评估过程中得到了充分的体现,而且在计算上有较高的可行度,同时避免了之前模型中的评价指标权重设立问题,最大限度地保持专家意见的客观完整性。最后通过具体项目中的风险评估计算演示了如何为高速公路项目BOT融资决策提供依据。对BOT项目中的风险及其分担主体进行了分析,并对当前风险分担的原则进行了归纳总结,在当前学者研究的基础上,通过案例总结和资料梳理对BOT项目风险分担合同的设置机制进行了分析,并对其实施机制提出了建议。
[Abstract]:As one of the contents of project management, risk management has great influence on the integrity of project management and the realization of its ultimate goal. The risk management process of BOT project financing is influenced by many factors. Problems such as changes in political and economic factors at home and abroad, coordination and cooperation among project participants, structural choice of investment and financing, and sources of project funds will all have an impact on the construction process of the project. These problems will also affect the operating cost and economic intensity of the project. The above problems can only be identified and evaluated by correctly identifying and evaluating the risks of the project. On the basis of analyzing and realizing the dynamic control of risk through reasonable risk sharing, it can be solved thoroughly. At present, faced with the problems of too many participants in decision making, fuzzy and complex decision opinions and difficult quantification, or distortion of quantitative results of decision opinions in risk assessment, the solutions put forward by the academic circles are not very sufficient and systematic. This paper starts with this problem and hopes to provide advice for risk management of BOT project. From the view of the whole project, this paper analyzes and identifies the risk factors of expressway project based on BOT mode, and summarizes the main risks faced by different risk subjects. Synthesizing all the factors in the decision-making process of project financing, considering the stakeholders involved in the project, selecting the risk assessment index representative from the project as a whole. Based on the principle of fuzzy multi-attribute decision-making, a BOT project risk evaluation ranking model is designed. The method of dynamic multi-objective decision making is used in this model, and the risk ranking model established in this paper is used to solve the decision problem. Compared with the traditional model, the advantage of this model is that the structure is simpler and easier to understand, the decision information is fully reflected in the evaluation process, and the calculation is more feasible. At the same time, the problem of setting up the weight of evaluation index in the former model is avoided, and the objective integrity of expert opinion is maintained as far as possible. Finally, the paper demonstrates how to provide the basis for the BOT financing decision of expressway project through the risk assessment calculation in the specific project. This paper analyzes the risk and its main body in BOT project, and summarizes the principles of risk sharing at present. This paper analyzes the setting mechanism of BOT project risk sharing contract through case summary and data combing, and puts forward some suggestions on its implementation mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：南京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F272.3;F542

【参考文献】