交通基础设施门槛、物流业与制造业获利能力

发布时间：2018-05-21 14:59

本文选题：交通基础设施 + 物流业　；参考：《中国流通经济》2014年08期

【摘要】：文章基于门槛回归模型,分别以铁路和高速公路路网密度作为交通基础设施门槛变量,对其在物流业提升制造业获利能力方面存在的非线性调节作用进行实证分析。研究结果表明,2003~2012年间,以铁路基础设施作为门槛,二者的作用机制表现出了"由正转负"的相关关系;以高速公路基础设施作为门槛,二者的作用机制表现出了显著的"倒U"型相关关系。由此可见,物流业发展内生于经济发展过程,忽略交通基础设施的演进而单纯强调物流业发展对制造业获利能力提高的促进作用,不仅会对理论本身形成错误的理解,还会产生更为严重的政策错配。因此,鉴于交通基础设施门槛效应的存在,应基于我国交通基础设施条件的不同,系统、动态地看待我国交通基础设施投资行为,并重新考虑合适的物流业发展政策。
[Abstract]:Based on the threshold regression model, this paper takes the density of railway and highway network as the threshold variable of traffic infrastructure, and analyzes the nonlinear adjustment effect of the network density on the logistics industry to enhance the profitability of manufacturing industry. The results show that between 2003 and 2012, railway infrastructure was taken as the threshold, and the mechanism of their action showed a "positive to negative" correlation, while highway infrastructure was taken as the threshold. The mechanism of the two shows a significant "inverted U" type correlation. It can be seen from this that the development of logistics industry is born in the process of economic development, neglecting the evolution of transportation infrastructure, and simply emphasizing the role of logistics development in promoting the profitability of manufacturing industry, will not only form a wrong understanding of the theory itself. There will also be more serious policy mismatches. Therefore, in view of the existence of the threshold effect of traffic infrastructure, we should treat the investment behavior of transportation infrastructure dynamically based on the different conditions of transportation infrastructure in China, and reconsider the appropriate development policy of logistics industry.
【作者单位】：长安大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金资助项目“基于集成场理论的制造业与物流业联动发展模式研究”(项目编号:13BJY080) 长安大学中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目“国际物流主通道的基核间物流及关联产业发展研究”(项目编号:2014G6235035)”的部分研究成果
【分类号】：F512;F259.2;F424

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