客运专线旅客出行需求及客流时空分布研究

发布时间：2018-05-22 17:42

本文选题：客运专线 + 旅客出行需求　；参考：《北京交通大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着客运专线陆续开通与运营,以北京为中心覆盖全国大部分中心城市的1-8小时交通圈将给人们出行带来极大的便利。客运专线旅客出行需求和时空距离的改变使得客流在时空分布上表现出明显的不均衡性。为了解决客运专线旅客列车开行方案时而能力虚糜,时而运能不足的难题,提高决策的科学性,研究客运专线旅客出行需求及客流时空分布具有重要意义。本文首先在分析铁路旅客出行行为影响因素和客运专线旅客出行需求特点的基础上,系统分析了客运专线客流时空分布特征；通过SP调查问卷的设计和实施,重点调查了不同子市场下(按客流运距划分)旅客对出行时段的选择意向,并对调查数据进行了单项和交叉分析,为模型建立提供数据支持。然后基于多项logistic回归模型理论,构建了京广客运专线不同子市场下旅客出行时段选择模型,利用SP调查数据对模型参数进行了标定。通过模型检验,所建立模型可以用来预测不同子市场下旅客对出行时段的选择分布,为时段客流分配提供支持。最后分析了客流时空分布与列车开行方案和客运营销的关系,提出了基于时段客流的列车开行方案编制和分时段票价优惠、积分奖励的客运营销策略的建议,为铁路企业增强市场竞争力提供参考。
[Abstract]:With the opening and operation of passenger dedicated lines in succession, the 1-8 hour traffic circle with Beijing as the center covers most of the central cities in the country will bring great convenience for people to travel. The change of passenger travel demand and space-time distance of passenger dedicated line makes the distribution of passenger flow show obvious imbalance in time and space. It is of great significance to study passenger travel demand and spatial and temporal distribution of passenger dedicated line in order to solve the problem of empty capacity and insufficient transportation capacity in passenger train operation plan of passenger dedicated line and to improve the science of decision making. Based on the analysis of the factors affecting passenger travel behavior and the characteristics of passenger travel demand, this paper systematically analyzes the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of passenger flow in passenger dedicated line, and designs and implements the SP questionnaire. This paper focuses on the choice of travel time between passengers in different sub-markets (divided by passenger flow distance) and makes a single and cross-analysis of the survey data to provide data support for model building. Then, based on the theory of multiple logistic regression models, the model of passenger travel time selection in different sub-markets of Beijing-Guangzhou passenger dedicated line is constructed, and the parameters of the model are calibrated using SP survey data. The model can be used to predict the choice and distribution of travel time in different sub-markets and to provide support for passenger flow allocation. Finally, the paper analyzes the relationship between the time and space distribution of passenger flow, train operation plan and passenger transportation marketing, and puts forward the suggestions of passenger transport marketing strategy based on the passenger flow of the time period, the fare discount and the integral reward of the passenger transport marketing strategy based on the time period passenger flow. To provide reference for railway enterprises to enhance market competitiveness.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：U293.13

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