中国港口业发展与经济增长的协调度分析

发布时间：2018-05-25 06:14

本文选题：关联模式 + 主成分分析法　；参考：《华中师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2017年06期

【摘要】：协调在组织管理中是作为调节组织个体之间的相互关系来达到最终目标的一种职能.协调可以使个体组织在一个整体中,减少相互之间的矛盾和冲突,促使整体目标的实现.研究中国港口业与经济增长之间的协调关系对港口业和国民经济的健康发展有着重要的指导作用.基于此,该文根据港口业与经济增长之间的关联模式,提取出港口业与经济增长之间的关联因子,建立起评估二者关系的协调度指标体系,然后对经标准化处理的指标进行相关性分析,筛除掉相关系数较大的指标,消除指标之间信息重复的影响,以此来简化指标评价体系.通过主成分分析法对多指标进行线性组合处理,计算得到能够反应港口业与经济增长的综合性指标,在对二者的综合性指标按照协调度模型进行测算后,得到不同时间段下港口业与经济增长之间的协调度类型,以此来评估二者的关系水平.实际数据计算结果表明,1990年~2014年的时间段内,我国港口业与经济增长之间的协调度关系有6次明显的变化:1)在20世纪90年代初期(1990年~1991年),改革开放政策所带来的经济和外贸的高速发展,出现了一系列的压船压港现象;2)在1992年~1997年期间,我国的港口业发展与经济增长处于不协调状态;2)在1998年~1999年期间,这个阶段我国的港口业与经济增长处于不太协调的状态;4)在2000年~2004年,这一阶段我国的港口业发展与经济增长的由比较协调状态到协调状态过渡;5)在2005年~2009年期间,中国经济的增长与港口业的发展都处在快速发展的黄金时期,二者的协调发展关系也处在良好的状态;6)在2010年~2014年期间,港口业与经济增长之间的发展处在协调状态.这些变化与当时的时代背景和政策环境有着紧密的联系,其中,二者的协调度在2005年~2009年达到较高的水平.
[Abstract]:Coordination in organizational management is a function of regulating the relationship between individual organizations to achieve the ultimate goal. Coordination can make the individual organization in a whole, reduce the contradiction and conflict between each other, and promote the realization of the overall goal. The study of the harmonious relationship between port industry and economic growth plays an important role in guiding the healthy development of port industry and national economy. Based on this, according to the correlation model between port industry and economic growth, this paper extracts the correlation factors between port industry and economic growth, and establishes a coordination index system to evaluate the relationship between port industry and economic growth. Then the correlation analysis of the standardized indexes is carried out to eliminate the indexes with large correlation coefficient and to eliminate the influence of information repetition among the indexes so as to simplify the evaluation system of the indicators. Through the linear combination processing of multiple indexes by principal component analysis, the comprehensive indexes which can reflect the port industry and economic growth are calculated. After calculating the comprehensive indexes of the two indexes according to the coordination degree model, The types of coordination between port industry and economic growth in different time periods are obtained to evaluate the relationship between them. Actual data calculations show that, in the period from 1990 to 2014, In the early 1990s (1990 ~ 1991), the rapid development of economy and foreign trade brought about by the policy of reform and opening to the outside world. During 1992 ~ 1997, the development of port industry and economic growth in China were in a state of disharmony) during the period of 1998 ~ 1999, a series of pressure ship pressure phenomenon appeared. At this stage, the port industry and economic growth of our country are in a state of disharmony (4) from 2000 to 2004, and from the state of comparative coordination to the state of coordination of economic growth in this stage, 5) during the period of 2005 ~ 2009, the port industry and the economic growth of our country are in a state of transition from a more coordinated state to a coordinated state. The growth of Chinese economy and the development of port industry are both in the golden period of rapid development, and the relationship between them is also in a good state. (6) from 2010 to 2014, the development of port industry and economic growth is in a coordinated state. These changes are closely related to the background of the times and the policy environment at that time, in which the degree of coordination between the two reached a higher level from 2005 to 2009.
【作者单位】：大连海事大学航运经济与管理学院;北京理工大学管理与经济学院;同济大学交通运输工程学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD170) 教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(NCET-13-0701) 大连海事大学“十三五”重点科研项目(3132016361)
【分类号】：F124.1;F552

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