长沙轨道交通2号线工程项目投资风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-05-25 17:54

本文选题：轨道交通项目 + 投资风险管理　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：轨道交通建设项目投资额巨大、建设周期长、投资回收期长、风险高等特征阻碍了轨道交通建设的顺利进行,城市轨道交通建设项目投资主体是政府部门,可见,政府投融资在轨道交通建设中作用重大,但由于轨道交通建设项目投融资主体单一,致使解决城市交通需求出现制约,而且不利于更好地城市轨道交通路网的建设与发展。此外,城市轨道交通是准公共产品,具有非排他性特征,单凭票价收入及其他运营收入难以快速实现盈利,项目运营阶段需政府财政支持才能维持运转。因此,建设城市轨道交通项目必须重视投资风险管理问题。因此,本论文以长沙轨道交通2号线工程项目为研究对象,在系统化的风险理论分析的基础上,进一步对该项目投资风险因素进行了识别和评估,并提出了该项目投资存在的关键风险,继而有针对性地提出了风险应对及防范措施。本文的研究内容如下：首先,介绍了项目风险管理的相关基本理论、工程项目风险管理的有关基础知识以及项目风险管理的基本过程、风险识别、评估和风险防范的过程及方法；其次,对长沙轨道交通2号线工程项目现状进行分析的基础之上,从项目全寿命周期中总结各种风险因素,并采用实证研究法进一步来识别有关风险因素,构建长沙轨道交通2号线工程项目投资风险管理指标体系；再次,运用德菲尔法来确定所识别出的风险因素发生的概率,采用AHP(层次分析法)来加以确定风险因素的损失相对重要性,从而进一步确定该工程项目风险等级,找出关键风险因素：最后,基于风险度量值确定了投资方的决策风险、工程招投标风险为关键风险,并运用鱼刺图法给出关键风险的细化原因,有针对性地提出了风险应对和监控措施。论文主要在以下几个方面进行了创新性探讨：(1)编制长沙轨道交通2号线工程项目投资风险正式测量量表。经信度和效度检验,效果较好。共包括14个观测变量。弥补了现有文献的不足,进一步丰富了项目风险管理理论。(2)构建长沙轨道交通2号线工程项目投资风险指标体系。该指标体系包括3个一级指标、14个二级指标,弥补了轨道交通工程领域有关风险管理研究的匮乏,具有重要的理论价值和指导意义。(3)基f风险度量值确定了投资方的决策风险、工程招投标风险为关键风险,并运用鱼刺图法给出关键风险的细化原因,有针对性地提出了风险应对和监控措施,为本项目的顺利实施提供了参考价值。
[Abstract]:The characteristics of rail transit construction project such as huge investment, long construction period, long investment payback period and high risk hinder the smooth progress of rail transit construction. The main investment body of urban rail transit construction project is the government department, so it can be seen that, Government investment and financing plays an important role in the construction of rail transit, but because of the single subject of investment and financing of rail transit construction project, there are constraints to solve the urban traffic demand, and it is not conducive to the better construction and development of urban rail transit network. In addition, urban rail transit is a quasi-public product with non-exclusive characteristics. It is difficult to make a quick profit on the basis of ticket income and other operating income. The project needs government financial support to maintain its operation. Therefore, the construction of urban rail transit projects must attach importance to investment risk management. Therefore, this paper takes Changsha rail transit line 2 project as the research object, on the basis of systematic risk theory analysis, further identifies and evaluates the investment risk factors of the project. The key risks in the investment of the project are put forward, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward. The contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the basic theory of project risk management, the basic knowledge of project risk management, the basic process of project risk management and risk identification are introduced. Secondly, on the basis of analyzing the present situation of Changsha Rail Transit Line 2 project, we summarize the various risk factors from the whole life cycle of the project. And using empirical research method to further identify the relevant risk factors, build Changsha Rail Transit Line 2 project investment risk management index system; again, using the Defel method to determine the identified risk factors occurrence probability, AHP (Analytic hierarchy process) is used to determine the relative importance of risk factors, so as to further determine the risk level of the project, and find out the key risk factors. Finally, based on the risk measure, the decision risk of the investor is determined. The project bidding risk is the key risk, and the detailed reasons of the key risk are given by using the fish-prick diagram method, and the corresponding risk response and monitoring measures are put forward. This paper mainly discusses the innovation in the following aspects: 1) compiling the formal measurement scale of investment risk of Changsha rail transit line 2 project. The reliability and validity test showed that the effect was better. A total of 14 observation variables are included. It makes up for the deficiency of the existing literature and further enriches the theory of project risk management. It constructs the investment risk index system of Changsha Rail Transit Line 2 project. The index system consists of 3 first-grade indexes and 14 second-class indexes, which make up for the lack of research on risk management in the field of rail transit engineering, and have important theoretical value and guiding significance. The project bidding risk is the key risk, and the detailed reasons of the key risk are given by using the fish-prick diagram method, and the corresponding risk response and monitoring measures are put forward, which provides a reference value for the smooth implementation of the project.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F572.3

【参考文献】