乌鲁木齐轨道交通2号线项目全寿命周期费用风险研究

发布时间：2018-06-01 19:11

本文选题：全寿命周期 + 费用风险　；参考：《西南交通大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：乌鲁木齐轨道交通2号线是缓解老城区交通拥堵问题、促进乌鲁木齐市整体发展的重要轨道交通骨干线路,为乌鲁木齐迈向国际大都市进程带来了机遇,其社会效益远大于经济效益,但由于城市轨道交通项目是城市的主要公益性基础设施,资金投入量巨大,项目自身投资回报率低,投资回收期长,因此,对其费用风险的控制就显得尤为重要。为了及时控制2号线项目的总费用,在一定程度上保证项目的顺利实施,本文对2号线项目的费用风险进行了研究。考虑到2号线项目各个阶段的费用风险可能会对后续阶段的费用产生影响,所以不能够将其割裂开来分析,否则可能会出现仅关注局部风险较大的因素,而忽略了一些对项目全寿命周期费用影响较大的风险因素,从而丧失对项目费用风险大小的把握。因此,本文采用全寿命周期风险管理理论,对乌鲁木齐轨道交通2号线项目的费用风险进行了探讨,分析出其全寿命周期内的费用风险因素,并用灰色关联故障树的方法,对这些费用风险因素进行排序,并提出费用风险应对方案。论文首先讨论了2号线项目全寿命周期内的所有费用风险因素。2号线项目可以划分为决策阶段、设计阶段、招投标阶段、实施阶段和运营维护阶段。其中,决策阶段的费用风险为盲目扩大项目规模或提高标准、忽略自然条件或社会因素以及缺乏类似项目的经验；设计阶段的费用风险为设计深度不够、设计方案不合理、重技术轻经济以及业主的不合理要求；招投标阶段的费用风险为开展招投标的时间不合适、招标文件质量不高、评标方法缺乏科学性以及合同问题；实施阶段的费用风险为签证管理的问题、业主不能按期提供施工条件、施工方案的问题以及不可抗力风险；运营维护阶段的费用风险为运营策略的不合理和技术更新。其次,论文运用灰色关联故障树的方法,分析了费用风险因素的排序。盲目扩大项目规模和提高标准、业主的不合理要求和合同问题是乌鲁木齐轨道交通2号线项目费用风险管理中最为重要的问题,必须高度重视。其次是运营策略的不合理,第三是招标文件质量不高和不可抗力风险,第四是缺乏类似项目的经验、重技术轻经济和签证管理的问题,第五是忽略自然条件和社会因素以及业主不能按期提供施工条件,第六是设计方案不合理和施工方案的问题,最后,评标方法缺乏科学性、技术更新、设计深度不够和开展招投标的时间不合适重要程度依次递减。最后,论文针对2号线项目全寿命周期内的费用风险排序,从政策、管理、技术、运营及业务素质五个方面提出控制方案,为实现2号线项目的费用风险控制提供了依据。
[Abstract]:Urumqi Rail Transit Line 2 is an important rail transit backbone line to alleviate traffic congestion in old urban areas and promote the overall development of Urumqi, which brings opportunities for Urumqi to move towards an international metropolis. The social benefits are far greater than the economic benefits. However, because the urban rail transit project is the main public welfare infrastructure in the city, the amount of capital investment is huge, the rate of return on investment itself is low, and the payback period of investment is long. It is particularly important to control the cost risk. In order to control the total cost of Line 2 project in time and ensure the smooth implementation of the project to a certain extent, this paper studies the cost risk of Line 2 Project. Considering that the cost risk of each phase of the Line 2 project may have an impact on the costs of subsequent phases and that it cannot be analysed separately, otherwise factors that focus only on local risks may arise, Some risk factors which have a great influence on the whole life cycle cost of the project are neglected, so the risk of the project cost is lost. Therefore, by using the life-cycle risk management theory, this paper discusses the cost risk of Urumqi rail transit line 2 project, analyzes the cost risk factors in the whole life cycle, and uses the method of grey correlation fault tree to analyze the cost risk factors in Urumqi rail transit line 2 project. Sort these cost risk factors and propose a cost risk response plan. This paper first discusses all the cost risk factors in the whole life cycle of Line 2 project, which can be divided into decision-making stage, design stage, bidding stage, implementation stage and operation and maintenance stage. Among them, the cost risk in the decision-making stage is blindly expanding the project scale or raising the standard, ignoring the natural conditions or social factors and lacking the experience of similar projects, and the cost risk in the design stage is that the design depth is not enough and the design scheme is unreasonable. The cost risk of bidding stage is that the time of bidding is not suitable, the quality of bidding documents is not high, the evaluation method is lack of scientific and contract problems; The cost risk of the implementation phase is the problem of visa management, the owner can not provide the construction condition, the problem of the construction plan and the risk of force majeure on schedule; the cost risk of the operation and maintenance phase is the unreasonable operation strategy and the technical renewal. Secondly, the paper analyzes the ranking of cost risk factors by using the method of grey relational fault tree. It is the most important problem in the cost risk management of Urumqi Rail Transit Line 2 project to expand the project scale blindly and raise the standard. The unreasonable request and contract problem of the owner are the most important problems in the project cost risk management of Urumqi Rail Transit Line 2, which must be paid more attention to. The second is the unreasonable operation strategy, the third is the low quality of the bidding documents and the risk of force majeure, the fourth is the lack of experience in similar projects, the emphasis on technology over the economy and the issue of visa management. Fifth, ignoring the natural conditions and social factors and the owner's inability to provide the construction conditions on time. Sixth, the design scheme is unreasonable and the construction scheme is not. Finally, the bid evaluation method is not scientific and the technology is updated. The design depth is not enough and the time of bidding is not suitable for the important degree of decline in turn. Finally, the paper puts forward the control scheme from five aspects of policy, management, technology, operation and business quality, which provides the basis for realizing the cost risk control of Line 2 project.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F572.88

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