高铁时代背景下城际公铁客运的博弈与协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-06-01 19:14

本文选题：高铁时代 + 城际通道　；参考：《重庆交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：交通运输业是国民经济发展中极为重要的载体之一,为社会经济发展创造了前提条件,虽然我国交通事业发展迅猛,但是目前我国的交通运输业也还存在不少问题:基础设施建设总体规模偏小,整个产业技术水平偏低,交通行业发展速度也和社会经济发展对交通运输的需求不相匹配,交通基础设施的整体布局也不利于城市群和区域间的协调发展。为达到国家交通建设的长期目标和要求,需增加交通辐射范围,优化运输结构,提高运输质量,加大运输能力,提高技术装备水平。随着铁路建设的加快,公路客运必会受到强烈的冲击,城际公路客运受影响更为严重,公路客运主体面临如此强大的竞争对手,竞争压力空前巨大。为了深入研究城际公铁竞争,最终达到城际公铁能够协调发展的目的,本文重点研究了旅客出行规律和基于票价的非合作二人博弈。首先阐述了传统城际间公铁客运和高铁时代背景下公铁客运的技术经济特征,分析得到由于在高铁时代影响下,特别是在城际客运市场中,公路客运愈发劣势,铁路客运重新占据了绝对优势。并对已开通高铁的成渝和渝万客运通道运行情况进行分析,选择渝万运输通道内的客流,针对出行特征发起问卷调查,根据调查数据,分析选择产品特征、旅客主观属性、出行客观特性,整理分析出城际通道内的旅客的构成以及偏好,并计算出影响因素权重。然后运用博弈论的相关知识对城际客运通道内的公铁客运博弈关系进行分析,选择非合作博弈的相关理论,建立非合作二人博弈模型,研究选取票价策略对客运量分担率和收益的影响,并给出计算博弈模型的Lemke-Howson算法和实现算法的LINGO软件。最后以重庆到万州运输通道为实例,对建立的模型和算法进行验证。对渝万客运通道基本情况作简单描述后,根据本文的理论基础和模型算法,列出影响参数,给出效应函数,最后运用LINGO实现Lemke-Howson算法,得出纳什均衡结果,再对结果做出分析。为了实现城际运输方式的供应与客流需求的相适应,既要使得运输通道内客流在出行方式之间的优化分配,也要使城际运输方式自身保证市场平衡,除了价格策略外,文章末尾为城际公铁客运协同发展提供了几条参考策略。
[Abstract]:Transportation is one of the most important carriers in the development of the national economy, which has created the precondition for the social and economic development, although the transportation industry in our country has developed rapidly. However, at present, there are still many problems in China's transportation industry: the overall scale of infrastructure construction is small, the level of industry technology is on the low side, and the speed of development of transportation industry does not match with the demand of social and economic development for transportation. The overall layout of transportation infrastructure is not conducive to the coordinated development of urban agglomerations and regions. In order to achieve the long-term goal and requirement of national traffic construction, it is necessary to increase the range of traffic radiation, optimize the transportation structure, improve the quality of transportation, increase the capacity of transportation and raise the level of technical equipment. With the acceleration of railway construction, highway passenger transport will be strongly impacted, and the intercity highway passenger transport will be more seriously affected. The main body of highway passenger transport is facing such powerful competitors, and the competition pressure is unprecedented. In order to study the inter-city rail competition and finally achieve the goal of coordinated development of inter-city railway, this paper focuses on the study of passenger travel law and non-cooperative two-person game based on ticket price. Firstly, the technical and economic characteristics of traditional inter-city rail transport and high-speed railway passenger transport are expounded, and the analysis shows that road passenger transport becomes more inferior under the influence of high-speed rail era, especially in the inter-city passenger transport market. Railway passenger transport has regained its absolute advantage. It also analyzes the running situation of Chengdu-Chongqing and Yu-Wan passenger transport channels, selects the passenger flow in Yu-wan transport channel, carries out a questionnaire survey according to the travel characteristics, analyzes and selects the product characteristics and the subjective attributes of passengers according to the survey data. The objective characteristics of travel are analyzed, and the composition and preference of passengers in the intercity passage are analyzed, and the weight of the influencing factors is calculated. Then the game theory is used to analyze the game relationship between the public and railway passenger transport in the intercity passenger transport channel, and the non-cooperative two-person game model is established by selecting the relevant theory of non-cooperative game. This paper studies the influence of ticket price strategy on the share rate and income of passenger volume, and gives the Lemke-Howson algorithm for calculating game model and the LINGO software for implementing the algorithm. Finally, take Chongqing to Wanzhou transportation channel as an example to verify the established model and algorithm. After a brief description of the basic situation of Yu-Wan passenger transport corridor, according to the theoretical basis and model algorithm of this paper, the influence parameters are listed, and the effect function is given. Finally, the Lemke-Howson algorithm is implemented by using LINGO, and the Nash equilibrium result is obtained, and the result is analyzed. In order to adapt the supply of intercity transportation mode to the demand of passenger flow, it is necessary to optimize the distribution of passenger flow between travel modes in the transportation channel and to ensure the market balance of intercity transportation mode itself, except for price strategy. At the end of the article, several reference strategies are provided for the coordinated development of intercity railway passenger transport.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F512;U116

【参考文献】