港口公共基础设施资金筹措模式风险评价分析

发布时间：2018-06-04 08:42

本文选题：港口基础设施 + 资金筹措模式　；参考：《华南理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：要发展我国现代物流，完善的基础设施是不可缺少的物质基础，因此必须高起点地建设物流基础设施。港口是水陆运输的联结点，，在交通运输网络中起着极其重要的作用。港口以及相关配套基础设施的建设，对区域经济和社会发展都有着重大意义。一直以来，对于港口基础设施建设的巨大的资金需求，多是通过政府财政投入的渠道来满足，但是，因为港口基础设施建设一般都是大型的基础设施建设项目，具有资金需求量大、建设周期长、投资回报期长、规模庞大等特点，所以单靠政府投入，资金需求很难满足。社会资金和民间资本流入基础设施筹资领域后，因不同渠道筹集的资金性质不同，而使得不同融资方式或方案中存在着不同的融资风险。基于此背景，本文通过介绍国外发达国家以及国内主要城市运作同类性质的基础设施的经验，总结分析了多种适合于港口公共基础设施的资金筹措模式，并探讨运用资产定价模型、现金流量模型等数理方法进行定量分析，构建了基于同等项目的不同融资方案估算出现金流量净现值（NPV），进而计算出方案风险估值VAR，然后比较不同融资方案之间的风险估值选择最优方案的分析思路。本文最后通过广州港的案例分析，给出适合的资金筹措方式，并对四种融资方案进行了VAR模型的应用，验证了其可行性，从而为政府选择融资方案提供了一套可行方法。因此本文对于我国港口基础设施资金筹措的研究具有一定的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:In order to develop modern logistics in China, perfect infrastructure is an indispensable material foundation, so it is necessary to build logistics infrastructure at a high starting point. Port is the joint of land and water transportation and plays an extremely important role in transportation network. The construction of port and related infrastructure is of great significance to regional economic and social development. All along, the huge capital demand for port infrastructure construction is mostly met through the channels of government financial input. However, because port infrastructure construction is generally a large-scale infrastructure construction project, It has the characteristics of large capital demand, long construction period, long investment return period and large scale, so it is difficult to satisfy the capital demand by government investment alone. After social capital and private capital flow into the field of infrastructure financing, there are different financing risks in different financing methods or schemes because of the different nature of the funds raised through different channels. Based on this background, this paper summarizes and analyzes various financing modes suitable for port public infrastructure by introducing the experiences of foreign developed countries and major domestic cities operating infrastructure of the same nature. It also discusses the quantitative analysis by using mathematical methods such as asset pricing model, cash flow model, etc. The net present value of cash flow (NPV) is estimated by different financing schemes based on the same project, and then the VARs of the scheme risk are calculated, and then the analysis idea of choosing the optimal scheme for the risk valuation among different financing schemes is compared. Finally, through the case study of Guangzhou Port, this paper gives the suitable financing method, and applies the VAR model to the four financing schemes, and verifies its feasibility, thus providing a set of feasible methods for the government to choose the financing scheme. Therefore, this article has certain reference significance for our country port infrastructure financing research.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F552;F283;F224

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