国际干散货航运市场供需平衡分析

发布时间：2018-06-05 01:44

本文选题：干散货 + 航运市场　；参考：《大连海事大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：国际干散货海运占国际航运市场约1/3的份额,相比班轮市场和油轮市场,国际干散货航运市场更接近于完全竞争市场,在运力供给和航运需求的作用下,市场行情波动频繁,竞争激烈。从2008年下半年开始美欧等经济体陆续进入经济衰退,继而在9月份金融危机全面爆发,对世界经济和贸易产生严重打击,干散货海运市场也随之暴跌。即使在各国经济刺激政策下,干散货航运市场在2009和2010年有过阶段性的上涨,但是,大量运力投入市场和需求增长的不足,使得国际干散货航运市场将在未来的一段时间内很难走出低谷。本文基于上述背景,在收集大量数据的基础上,对国际干散货航运市场的供需平衡展开研究。文章首先从国际干散货航运市场概况入手,对国际干散货航运市场相关要素和主要运作形式进行介绍和说明,总结国际干散货航运市场特征和发展规律。接下来,本文通过建立国际干散货航运市场的简单模型,分别对国际干散货航运市场的海运需求、运力供给和运价指数从其特征、来源、影响因素以及2011年的发展情况等方面进行分析。下一步,本文以供需平衡分析为主,结合相关文献中成熟的预测方法,过定量、定性相结合,多种预测模型相结合,对未来五年国际干散货市场的海运需求、运力供给和年平均运价指数进行了预测,并对未来五年国际干散货市场的发展趋势进行了分析。最后,文章在以上分析和论述的基础上,为国际干散货航运企业总结当采取的经营策略,并提出了航运企业在实施经营策略时应当注意的问题。本文在对国际干散货航运市场供给和需求方面的论述和分析比较全面,并通过建立供需平衡模型,引入“运力指数”这一参数,科学的反映了国际干散货航运市场供需平衡情况,为我国从事国际干散货运输的航运企业清晰的分析市场发展趋势提供了理论依据并具有较强的可借鉴性。
[Abstract]:International dry bulk shipping accounts for about a third of the international shipping market. Compared with the liner market and the tanker market, the international dry bulk shipping market is closer to the completely competitive market. Under the influence of capacity supply and shipping demand, market prices fluctuate frequently. The competition is fierce. Economies such as the United States and Europe have been in recession since the second half of 2008, followed by a full-blown financial crisis in September, which has dealt a severe blow to the world economy and trade and sent the dry bulk shipping market plummeting. Even under the economic stimulus policies of various countries, the dry bulk shipping market experienced a gradual rise in 2009 and 2010, but a large amount of capacity was put into the market and the growth of demand was insufficient. International dry bulk shipping market will be difficult to get out of the trough in the future. Based on the above background, this paper studies the balance of supply and demand in international dry bulk shipping market on the basis of collecting a lot of data. Starting with the general situation of the international dry bulk shipping market, this paper introduces and explains the relevant elements and main operating forms of the international dry bulk shipping market, and summarizes the characteristics and development rules of the international dry bulk shipping market. Then, by establishing a simple model of the international dry bulk shipping market, this paper analyzes the shipping demand, capacity supply and freight rate index of the international dry bulk shipping market from its characteristics, sources. The influencing factors and the development of 2011 were analyzed. Next, this paper focuses on supply-demand balance analysis, combined with mature forecasting methods in relevant literature, over-quantitative, qualitative and multiple forecasting models, to meet the maritime demand of the international dry bulk market in the next five years. Capacity supply and annual average freight rate index are forecasted, and the development trend of international dry bulk market in the next five years is analyzed. Finally, on the basis of the above analysis and discussion, the paper summarizes the operational strategies adopted by the international dry bulk shipping enterprises, and puts forward some problems that should be paid attention to when the shipping enterprises carry out the management strategies. In this paper, the supply and demand of international dry bulk shipping market are discussed and analyzed comprehensively, and by establishing the model of supply and demand balance, the parameter of "capacity index" is introduced. It scientifically reflects the balance of supply and demand in the international dry bulk shipping market, and provides a theoretical basis and a strong reference for the shipping enterprises engaged in international dry bulk transportation to clearly analyze the market development trend.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F551

【引证文献】