风险条件下收费公路PPP项目特许定价研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 02:22

本文选题：PPP项目 + 收费公路　；参考：《昆明理工大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：收费公路PPP项目是指政府和私人投资者以经济战略合作伙伴关系为前提,用某个公路项目为基础而形成的合作模式。它的实质是通过价格调节机制增加公共产品的有效供给,特许定价的合理性就成为收费公路PPP项目决策的关键问题。在我国的实践中,因为PPP项目特许定价不合理而导致项目失败,引发政府、项目公司、社会公众冲突的案例不胜枚举,同时说明现有的收费公路PPP项目定价理论无法与项目实践相适应。本文结合收费公路PPP项目的自身特点,对导致PPP项目定价难的影响因素进行系统化分析,在政府、项目公司和出行者之间寻求利益平衡点,深入探究实用性更强的收费公路PPP项目定价理论,目的是更好地推动我国公路基础的建设。在解决收费公路PPP项目特许定价的合理性把控难的问题时,提出两个需要解决的关键问题：(1)如何衡量风险在收费公路PPP项目中的影响。在漫长的特许经营期内,PPP项目的运营状况受到不确定性风险因素的影响。本研究从风险角度入手,分析风险对关键定价要素影响情况并给出概率分布假设,把风险对收费公路PPP项目特许定价问题的影响程度定量化。(2)如何根据PPP项目的自身特点建立特许定价模式。根据PPP项目融资模式中的利益相关者,政府、项目公司和出行者所要求的不同定价目标,把特许定价模式分为：控制特许期定价模式、控制特许收益定价模式和控制特许价格定价模式。本文从收费公路PPP项目融资模式、风险识别和特许定价方法三个方面进行相关文献的归纳总结,并指出当前的收费公路PPP项目定价理论日趋成熟,但不能完全解决实践中由于公路PPP项目的定价不准确产生的矛盾,主要局限性在于：当前的定价理论针对一般收费公路,缺乏一种有效适应收费公路PPP项目自身特点的定价理论。首先,本文针对PPP项目特点,分析出风险条件的变化是项目成败的关键。通过综合集成研讨厅的方法,对PPP项目风险进行情景分析、利益相关群体分析并列出问题清单。研究风险对关键定价要素的影响途径,并根据风险变动情况,假设关键定价要素的概率分布,从而实现不确定性风险的量化分析。其次,本文对PPP项目中的利益相关者进行分析,发现政府、项目公司和出行者由于角色不同拥有不同的定价目标,政府定价目标是在追求社会福利的最大化、项目公司的定价目标为追求项目利益最大化、出行者的定价目标为追求使用效用最大化。在此基础上建立了控制特许期定价模式、控制特许收益定价模式、控制特许价格定价模式的三种不同定价模式。再次,本文从工程经济学角度出发,在对PPP项目特许定价理论进行全面分析之后,结合收费公路PPP项目分阶段的特点,分别从建设期、运营期、移交期三个阶段构建函数,其中包括：建设期成本函数、运营期收入函数、运营期支出函数、移交后期支出函数。并引用巴拉特定价模型,构建收费公路PPP项目特许定价决策模型。然后,依据收费公路PPP项目在实践运营中出现的各种情况,找出适用收费公路PPP项目特许定价决策模型的边界条件。风险的不确定性对项目所产生的影响最终都以交通量的变化趋势来反映,在特许定价调整模型中,从定性分析角度,对特许价格调整的原则和调整的周期进行了分析；从定量的角度,首先进行了交通量的变动分析、净现值变动分析、价格与交通量变动分析。最后,以个旧至大屯收费公路PPP项目为案例进行分析,建立特许定价决策模型和特许定价调整模型,验证了模型的有效性,为类型收费公路PPP项目的特许定价研究提供范本。
[Abstract]:PPP ( PPP ) project is a cooperative mode based on the relationship between government and private investor based on economic strategic partnership . Its essence is to increase the effective supply of public goods through price adjustment mechanism .

This paper puts forward two key problems that need to be solved : ( 1 ) how to measure the influence of risk in PPP project of toll road .

This paper summarizes the related literatures from three aspects of PPP project financing model , risk identification and concession pricing method in toll road , and points out that the current pricing theory of PPP project is more mature , but can not completely solve the contradiction caused by inaccurate pricing of PPP project in practice . The main limitation is that the current pricing theory is aimed at the general toll road , and lacks a pricing theory which can effectively adapt to the characteristics of PPP project of the toll road .

First , according to the characteristics of PPP project , this paper analyzes the change of risk condition is the key to success or failure of the project . Through the method of integrated research hall , the risk of PPP project is analyzed and the problem list is listed . The influence way of risk on the key pricing elements is analyzed and the probability distribution of key pricing elements is assumed according to the risk variation .

Secondly , this paper analyzes the stakeholders in PPP project , and finds that the government , project company and traveler have different pricing objectives because of their different roles . The government pricing goal is to maximize social welfare . The pricing objective of the project company is to maximize the benefit of the project .

Thirdly , from the perspective of engineering economics , this paper constructs functions from three stages of construction period , operation period and handover period , including construction period cost function , operation period revenue function , operation period expenditure function and post - handover expenditure function .

Then , according to the various situations in practice operation of PPP project of toll road , the boundary conditions for the decision - making model of PPP project of toll road are found out . The uncertainty of risk is reflected by the trend of traffic volume . In the model of charter pricing adjustment , the principles and the adjustment period of concession price adjustment are analyzed from the angle of qualitative analysis .
From the quantitative point of view , the change of traffic volume , the change of net present value , the price and the change of traffic volume were analyzed .

Finally , taking the PPP project of the old - to - Da tun toll road as a case , establishing the franchise pricing decision model and the concession pricing adjustment model , the validity of the model is verified , and the model is provided for the research on the concession pricing of the PPP project of the type .
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F283;F542;F224

【参考文献】