基于低碳度和经济性的公路协调发展评价研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 22:26

本文选题：公路低碳度评价体系 + 全寿命周期碳排放量　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，我国多个地区已经掀起低碳公路的建设热潮，建设力度不断加大，设计规范不断完善。这在一定程度上缓解了公路污染的问题，但由于决策方法的不科学，在低碳公路建设和评估方面的问题依然很多。公路建设成本的日益提高，非但不能解决公路低碳化建设的关键问题，更造成了高成本低功能的现象。客观有效地评估公路低碳化程度，对解决公路建设成本收益和低碳化程度之间的协调发展具有重要的意义。对于如何建设低碳化公路，许多专家都提出了自己的看法，但如何评价公路的低碳程度，在我国鲜有研究。本文在已有研究的基础上，运用全寿命周期理论分析了公路在建设前期、施工期、运营期、维养期和拆除期产生碳排放量的影响因素，构建了公路全寿命周期碳排放量影响指标体系；然后运用基于层次分析的模糊综合评价法将公路低碳度的评价指标量化，构建了公路低碳度的评价量化模型；为使整个计算过程更加简便，论文还编制了基于VB程序的公路低碳度计算软件。为综合评估公路的建设成本收益问题，本文采取计算公路建设投资经济指标的方法，分别计算净现值、内部收益率和动态回收期。论文通过三次样条插值法预测出了实例公路未来二十年的交通量，将Matlab软件用于蒙特卡洛模拟分析方法中，，绘制出了各指标的仿真统计图并进行了计算结果的分析，得到了各经济指标的模拟值。公路的低碳度和建设成本收益两部分构成了公路协调发展分析的决策模型，为了完善该决策系统，本文引入了价值工程原理，以低碳度为功能项，以各经济指标值为收益项进行分析，使决策系统更具有科学性。论文在最后结合滨海公路沧州段进行了实例分析，进一步验证了本文所提出的公路协调发展模型的实用性。本文提出了公路低碳度的概念和计算方法，采用蒙特卡洛方法计算了公路的经济评价指标，结合价值工程原理，将公路低碳度和经济收益加以分析，建立了公路协调发展的决策模型，旨在为公路协调性发展判断提供科学的决策方法，从而为公路建设决策部门进行方案的择取提供依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, many regions of our country have set off the upsurge of low-carbon highway construction. This alleviates the problem of highway pollution to some extent, but because of the unscientific decision-making method, there are still many problems in the construction and evaluation of low-carbon highway. The increasing cost of highway construction can not only solve the key problem of highway low-carbon construction, but also cause the phenomenon of high cost and low function. It is of great significance to evaluate the degree of low carbonization of highway objectively and effectively to solve the harmonious development between the cost and benefit of highway construction and the degree of low carbonization. Many experts have put forward their own views on how to build low-carbon highway, but there is little research on how to evaluate the low carbon degree of highway. Based on the existing research, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the carbon emissions of highway in the early stage of construction, construction period, operation period, maintenance period and demolition period by using the life-cycle theory. The impact index system of road life cycle carbon emission is constructed, and then the evaluation index of highway low carbon degree is quantified by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP, and the evaluation quantitative model of highway low carbon degree is constructed. In order to make the whole calculation process more convenient, the paper also compiled the highway low carbon degree calculation software based on VB program. In order to evaluate the cost and benefit of highway construction synthetically, this paper adopts the method of calculating the economic index of highway construction investment, and calculates the net present value, internal rate of return and dynamic recovery period respectively. In this paper, the cubic spline interpolation method is used to predict the traffic volume of highway in the next 20 years. The Matlab software is used in Monte Carlo simulation analysis method, and the simulation statistical diagrams of each index are drawn and the calculation results are analyzed. The simulated values of each economic index are obtained. The low carbon degree of highway and the benefit of construction cost constitute the decision model of highway coordinated development analysis. In order to perfect the decision system, this paper introduces the principle of value engineering, taking low carbon degree as the function item. The economic index value is taken as the benefit item to make the decision system more scientific. Finally, combining with the Cangzhou section of Binhai Highway, the paper makes an example analysis, and further verifies the practicability of the highway coordinated development model proposed in this paper. In this paper, the concept and calculation method of low carbon degree of highway is put forward, the economic evaluation index of highway is calculated by Monte Carlo method, and the low carbon degree and economic benefit of highway are analyzed according to the principle of value engineering. The decision model of highway coordinated development is established in order to provide a scientific decision method for the judgment of highway coordinated development, thus providing the basis for the decision making department of highway construction.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X322;F542

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