国内排放交易体系不同方案对航空公司成本收益影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 05:06

本文选题：排放交易体系 + 总量控制与交易　；参考：《中国民航大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：气候变暖已经成为全球性课题,国家发展和改革委员会也决定同意将北京、天津、上海、重庆、湖北、广东、深圳7个省市作为碳排放交易试点。根据各个省市推出的初步试点方案,碳交易类型主要分为总量控制交易与基准信用交易。上海已经明确将民航业纳入排放交易体系当中,其他六省市也明确指出在“十二五”期间将交通运输行业纳入体系当中。在借鉴国际排放交易体系实施方案的基础上,结合《关于加快推进行业节能减排工作的指导意见》中的民航业减排目标,提出包含民航在内的两种排放交易方案:总量控制与交易、基准信用与交易。采用一元线性回归、逻辑斯特生长曲线预测方法、外推趋势法对我国未来民航发展进行预测。民航被纳入国内排放交易体系后会带来成本的增加,航空公司将会采取提价的方法来提高收益,依据经济学中需求-价格理论,采用定量分析方法对航空公司的成本、收益的变化进行研究,得出基准信用与交易机制是一种相对有效的实施方案,既能控制航空公司CO2排放,也不会影响航空公司正常的发展。
[Abstract]:Global warming has become a global issue, and the National Development and Reform Commission has decided to adopt seven provinces and cities, namely Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Hubei, Guangdong and Shenzhen, as pilot carbon trading units. According to the pilot scheme of each province and city, carbon trading is divided into total volume control transaction and benchmark credit transaction. Shanghai has explicitly incorporated the civil aviation industry into the emissions trading system, and the other six provinces and cities have clearly pointed out that the transportation industry will be included in the system during the 12th Five-Year Plan period. On the basis of drawing lessons from the implementation plan of the international emissions trading system, combined with the civil aviation emission reduction targets in the guiding opinion on accelerating Energy Saving and Emission reduction in the Industry, Two emission trading schemes including civil aviation are proposed: total control and trading, benchmark credit and trading. The future development of civil aviation in China is predicted by linear regression method, growth curve prediction method and extrapolation trend method. When civil aviation is incorporated into the domestic emissions trading system, it will bring about an increase in costs, and airlines will increase their profits by raising their prices. According to the demand-price theory in economics, the cost of airlines will be quantitatively analyzed by means of quantitative analysis. It is concluded that the benchmark credit and trading mechanism is a relatively effective scheme, which can not only control the CO2 emissions of airlines, but also will not affect the normal development of airlines.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F562

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