贵都高速公路BOT项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-11 10:11

  本文选题：贵都高速公路 + BOT　； 参考：《大连海事大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：发展交通,投资是关键。20世纪80年代后,随着我国公路运输需求剧增和交通行为的变化,我国开始步入高速公路发展阶段。截至2011年底我国高速公路总里程达到8.5万公里,通车里程位居世界第二位。目前,我国正进一步推行交通运输基本公共服务均等化,统筹发展以普通公路为主的非收费公路体系和以高速公路为主的收费公路体系,这为高速公路BOT(Build-Operate-Transfer,即建造-运营-移交)项目融资提供了机遇。 贵都高速公路作为国家高速公路“7918”网中厦蓉高速的组成部分和贵州省高速公路网中最重要的路段之一,采用内资BOT建设模式。由于我国目前还缺乏针对高速公路内资BOT项目融资方式的完善的法律体系和运作方法,因此在贵都高速公路的建设—经营—移交过程中同时存在多种风险。本文从BOT融资模式的概念、主要形式、基本运作程序、特点以及BOT项目风险管理过程入手,重点分析了贵都高速公路BOT项目风险的识别、评价及其应对。 在贵都高速公路BOT项目风险识别过程中,本文主要选择采用德尔菲法和核对表法,然后将工作分解结构法(WBS)引入到贵都高速公路BOT项目的风险管理中,建立了该项目的风险分解结构,指出贵都高速公路BOT项目主要面临经营风险、行业风险、市场风险、政策风险以及不可抗力风险等五大类风险。 本文运用层次分析法的原理,将贵都高速公路BOT项目风险因素分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ层,进而构建其风险指标体系。在对各风险专项和风险子项的重要程度进行比较,并给出相应的标度值的基础上,形成判断矩阵,通过计算处理得出专项风险权重。同时,采用CIM模型计算各层风险因素的概率分布,分析得出各类风险的风险等级。 最后,针对贵都高速公路BOT项目面临的各类主要风险,提出具体的、具有较强针对性和操作性的风险防范对策。
[Abstract]:Development of transportation, investment is the key. After 1980s, with the rapid increase of highway transportation demand and the change of traffic behavior, China began to enter the stage of highway development. By the end of 2011, the total mileage of expressway reached 85000 km, ranking second in the world. At present, China is further promoting the equalization of basic public services in traffic and transportation, and coordinating the development of the non-toll highway system, which is dominated by ordinary highways, and the toll road system, which is based on expressways. This provides an opportunity for the financing of the project of BOTGUID-Operate-Transfer.Guidu Expressway is part of the Xiarong Expressway in the National Highway "7918" network and one of the most important sections of the Guizhou Expressway network. Adopt domestic capital bot construction mode. Due to the lack of perfect legal system and operation method for domestic bot project financing in China, there are many risks in the process of construction, operation and transfer of Guidu Expressway at the same time. Starting with the concept, main form, basic operating procedure, characteristics and risk management process of bot project, this paper analyzes the identification of bot project risk in Guidu Expressway. In the process of risk identification of Guidu Expressway bot project, this paper mainly adopts Delphi method and checklist method, and then introduces WBSmethod into the risk management of Guidu Expressway bot Project. The risk decomposition structure of the project is established, and it is pointed out that the bot project of Guidu Expressway is faced with five kinds of risks, such as management risk, industry risk, market risk, policy risk and force majeure risk. The risk factors of Guidu Expressway bot project are divided into 鈪，

本文编号：2004879