中国交通基础设施与全要素生产率关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-13 11:56

本文选题：交通基础设施 + 全要素生产率　；参考：《重庆大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：1998年以后我国开始实施积极的财政政策，大力发展包括交通基础设施在内的公共基础设施建设，2008年金融危机爆发后，为了刺激经济增长，又再次出台了“四万亿”经济刺激方案，，其中很大一部分又再次投向了交通基础设施领域。那么，大规模的交通基础设施建设是否有效促进了中国地区经济增长，这种增长是否是长期性的，这显然是决定经济政策合理性的依据也是目前亟需回答的问题。理论研究普遍认为交通基础设施因为其“外部性效应”能有效提升全要素生产率，进而促进经济长期增长，因此本文试图通过实证检验交通基础设施与全要素生产率的关系，以判断1998年后交通基础设施建设对经济长期增长的影响。在控制贸易开放度、人力资本存量和制度因素的影响下，本文重点考察了1998-2010年间铁路交通基础设施和公路交通基础设施对全要素生产率增长的即期效应、滞后效应、空间溢出效应和与人力资本存量的交互效应。从全国范围来看，最终结果表明铁路交通基础设施对全要素生产率的即期和滞后效应显著为正，空间溢出效应显著为正，与人力资本的交互效应不显著；公路交通基础设施对全要素生产率的即期效应不显著或显著为负，滞后效应不显著，空间溢出效应显著为正，与人力资本的交互效应不显著。从分地区来看，东部地区，铁路交通基础设施对全要素生产率的即期效应显著为正，空间溢出效应显著为正，与人力资本的交互效应显著为负，公路基础设施对全要素生产率的即期效应不显著，空间溢出效应显著为负，与人力资本的交互效应不显著；中部地区，铁路交通基础设施对全要素生产率的即期效应显著为正，空间溢出效应显著为正，与人力资本的交互效应显著为负，公路交通基础设施对全要素生产率的即期效应显著为负，空间溢出效应不显著，与人力资本的交互效应显著为正；西部地区，铁路交通基础设施对全要素生产率的即期效应显著为正，空间溢出效应不显著，与人力资本的交互效应显著为负，公路交通基础设施对全要素生产率的即期效应不显著，空间溢出效应不显著，与人力资本的交互效应不显著。
[Abstract]:After 1998, China began to implement active fiscal policies and vigorously develop public infrastructure construction, including transportation infrastructure. After the financial crisis broke out in 2008, in order to stimulate economic growth, Another 4 trillion stimulus package, much of it again in transport infrastructure. Then, whether the large-scale transportation infrastructure construction has effectively promoted the economic growth in China, and whether the growth is long-term, is clearly the basis for determining the rationality of economic policy and the urgent question to be answered at present. It is generally believed that transportation infrastructure can effectively enhance total factor productivity and promote long-term economic growth because of its "externality effect". Therefore, this paper attempts to test the relationship between transport infrastructure and total factor productivity through empirical analysis. In order to judge the impact of traffic infrastructure construction on the long-term economic growth after 1998. Under the influence of controlling trade openness, human capital stock and institutional factors, this paper focuses on the immediate effect and lag effect of railway transport infrastructure and highway transport infrastructure on total factor productivity growth from 1998 to 2010. Spatial spillover effect and interaction effect with human capital stock. From the national perspective, the final results show that the immediate and lag effects of railway transport infrastructure on TFP are significantly positive, the spatial spillover effect is significantly positive, and the interaction effect with human capital is not significant. The spot effect of highway traffic infrastructure on total factor productivity is not significant or negative, the lag effect is not significant, the spatial spillover effect is significantly positive, and the interaction effect with human capital is not significant. In the eastern region, the spot effect of railway transportation infrastructure on TFP is significantly positive, the spatial spillover effect is significantly positive, and the interaction effect with human capital is significantly negative. The spot effect of highway infrastructure on total factor productivity is not significant, the spatial spillover effect is significantly negative, and the interaction effect with human capital is not significant, while in the central region, the spot effect of railway transportation infrastructure on total factor productivity is significantly positive. The spatial spillover effect is significantly positive, the interaction effect with human capital is significantly negative, the immediate effect of highway traffic infrastructure on total factor productivity is significantly negative, the spatial spillover effect is not significant, and the interactive effect with human capital is significantly positive. In western China, the spot effect of railway transportation infrastructure on TFP is significantly positive, the spatial spillover effect is not significant, and the interaction effect with human capital is significantly negative. The spot effect of highway traffic infrastructure on total factor productivity is not significant, the spatial spillover effect is not significant, and the interaction effect with human capital is not significant.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F512;F224

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