基于空间计量模型的中国交通运输业碳排放影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-06-15 02:32

本文选题：CO_2排放量 + 交通运输　；参考：《长安大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：交通运输业作为社会发展和国民经济的先导性和基础性产业,在运输和生产的过程中会消耗大量的化石能源。交通运输业在推动社会经济发展的同时,随着交通运输总量的增加,能源消耗量以及CO_2排放量也逐年上升,交通运输业已成为三大碳排放源之一,在全球范围内交通运输业碳排放量占总量的1/4[1][2]。在中国,各地区之间经济发展阶段、城镇化发展水平、人口分布、产业阶段等差距迥异,碳减排政策设计需针对具体的地方特性区别实施。因此,通过对中国交通运输业碳排放的空间差异特性的探讨,识别碳排放的影响因素对于制定低碳交通运输碳排放政策,推进碳减排具有重要的意义。许多学者针对中国交通运输业碳排放做了许多研究,但是利用空间计量模型对中国交通运输业碳排放影响因素进行研究的文献相对较少,大多基于时间层面,未考虑区域之间的经济发展水平、人口分布、富裕程度、产业阶段等因素之间存在的差异。本论文在已有的相关研究基础之上,通过对中国交通运输业CO_2排放量的测算,对其排放总量、人均排放量、排放强度、单位换算周转量排放量进行了分析;通过构建空间计量模型,分别从全国层面和三大区域层面研究中国各省(市)区域间的人口规模、富裕程度以及交通技术水平等影响因素和交通运输业CO_2排放量在空间上的相互影响。论文的主要研究结论如下:(1)2005-2014年中国交通运输业CO_2排放总量和人均CO_2排放量基本呈现相同的增长态势。CO_2排放强度和单位换算周转量CO_2排放量呈现逐渐下降的态势。(2)从全国层面看,中国交通运输业碳排放存在显著的空间正自相关性,总人口、城镇化率、交通运输业发展水平、交通运输业能源强度对中国交通运输业碳排放水平存在正向作用。运输结构对中国交通运输业碳排放影响不明显,对外开放水平对中国交通运输业碳排放存在负向作用。从三大区域层面来看,我国东部、西部区域交通运输业碳排放在空间上存在正相关性,中部区域则存在负的空间相关性。(3)为促进中国交通运输业低碳发展,可以通过优化运输结构、提高能源使用效率,降低能源消耗、创建完整智能化综合运输体系、建立“低碳交通”激励和约束机制以及完善交通运输业节能减排和低碳经济政策法律体系来实现。
[Abstract]:As the leading and basic industry of social development and national economy, transportation industry will consume a lot of fossil energy in the process of transportation and production. While promoting social and economic development, the transportation industry has become one of the three major sources of carbon emissions, with the increase of the total amount of transportation, the energy consumption and the emission of COSP. Worldwide, transport accounts for 1 / 4 of the total carbon emissions [1] [2]. In China, the economic development stage, urbanization development level, population distribution, industrial stage and so on are very different, so the design of carbon abatement policy should be carried out according to the specific local characteristics. Therefore, it is of great significance to identify the influencing factors of carbon emissions in low carbon transportation and promote carbon emission reduction by discussing the spatial differences of carbon emissions in China's transport industry. Many scholars have done a lot of research on the carbon emissions of China's transportation industry, but there are relatively few literatures on the influencing factors of carbon emissions in China's transportation industry by using spatial measurement models, most of which are based on the time dimension. The differences of economic development level, population distribution, affluence, industrial stage and so on are not taken into account. On the basis of the existing research, this paper analyzes the total emission, per capita emission, emission intensity and unit conversion volume of COK2 emissions of China's transportation industry. Through the construction of spatial measurement model, the population scale among provinces (cities) in China is studied from the national level and the three regional levels, respectively. The influence factors such as the degree of affluence, the level of transportation technology and the CO2 emission of transportation industry affect each other in space. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: from 2005 to 2014, the total emission volume of COS2 in China's transportation industry showed the same growth trend as that of per capita COSP emissions. The emission intensity and unit converted volume of CO2 emission of CO2 in China showed a decreasing trend from the national level. There is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of carbon emissions in China's transportation industry. The total population, urbanization rate, development level of transportation industry and energy intensity of transportation industry have positive effects on the carbon emission level of China's transportation industry. The effect of transport structure on the carbon emission of China's transportation industry is not obvious, and the level of opening to the outside world has a negative effect on the carbon emission of China's transportation industry. From the three regional levels, there is a positive spatial correlation between the regional carbon emissions in the eastern and western regions of China, and a negative spatial correlation in the central region) to promote the low-carbon development of the transport industry in China. By optimizing the transport structure, improving energy efficiency, reducing energy consumption, and creating a complete intelligent integrated transportation system, To establish a low carbon transport incentive and restraint mechanism and improve the transport energy conservation and emission reduction and low-carbon economic policy legal system to achieve.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F512;X73

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