基于组合评价的重庆水运可持续发展研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 04:32

本文选题：可持续发展 + 粗糙集　；参考：《成都理工大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：可持续发展强调经济——生态——社会三大系统之间的协调发展，内河水运是我国综合交通运输体系的一个重要组成部分，又具有节能环保的优势，选择可持续发展是目前的必然途径。而重庆作为西部重要的内河航运枢纽，水运的重要性更加显著，更应该大力推行可持续发展。重庆水运可持续发展评价理论与方法的研究，是重庆水运可持续发展最为基础的内容之一。自可持续发展的概念提出以来，国内外许多专家对水运可持续发展综合评价方法进行了研究。但时，任何一套评价方法仅是对评价对象客观状态某个视角的反映，因而不同方法得出的结论间会有一定的相关性。组合评价方法对多种评价结论进行了优化组合，这样就突出了相关程度大的那部分评价方法的作用，同时兼顾了相关程度较低的方法所包含的评价信息。该方法全面地利用了主观方法和客观方法的评价信息，可以达到较好的评价效果。本文首先从发展度、协调度和持续度的角度出发，构建重庆水运可持续发展的评价指标体系，能够及时地分析和评价重庆市水运可持续发展的能力，之后才能查漏补缺，加快可持续发展进程；然后选取2003-2010年的统计数据，，分别通过粗糙集、层次分析法和灰色关联分析的综合评价方法，得出重庆水运2003-2010年可持续发展度的综合评价值，再运用组合评价法确定每种评价方法的权重，进而确定最终的评价值。最终的评价结果，肯定了重庆水运近几年的发展成就。表明国家和重庆政府针对重庆水运的相关政策，促使了重庆水运可持续发展水平的逐年提升。从三种评价方法在组合时各自所占的权重看，粗糙集和灰色关联分析都是从数据本身出发的客观评价方法，因而粗糙集和灰色关联评价法在组合时所占的权重相差不大，层次分析法主观成分较重，它所占权重相对较低。从可持续发展的评价结果看，重庆水运的可持续发展能力是逐步提高的，2003年只是弱可持续水平，2010年达到了可持续中期。重庆水运可持续发展能力迅速提高主要归结于三方面原因：一方面，是三峡水库于2007年首次达到145米蓄水，并于2009年达到175米蓄水。三峡工程175米蓄水，使库区航道等级由原来的三级提高到一级，5000吨级单船和万吨级船队可直达重庆，为重庆内河航运带来了又一个发展机遇；另一方面，是国家和重庆政府出台了一系列关于建设长江黄金水道、长江上游航运中心的优惠扶持政策，同时也对船舶标准化、保税港区等重点项目做出了明确安排。这些政策安排大大改善了重庆水运的基础设施和经营环境状况；最后，重庆管理部门对水运企业管理的加强。例如，在人才培训方面，重庆市港航局在重视内部人才培训的同时，也非常重视水运企业人员综合素质和专业技能知识的提升，并利用有限的财力、物力举办了多期相关培训，促进了重庆航运业人才队伍的建设。
[Abstract]:Sustainable development emphasizes the coordinated development between the three systems of economy _ ecology _ society , the inland waterway transportation is an important part of the comprehensive transportation system in China , and it has the advantages of energy saving and environmental protection . The choice of sustainable development is the inevitable way at present . And Chongqing is one of the most important inland shipping hubs in the west , and it is more important to implement sustainable development . The research of the theory and method of sustainable development evaluation in Chongqing is one of the most basic contents of sustainable development of Chongqing .

Since the concept of sustainable development , many experts at home and abroad have studied the comprehensive evaluation method for the sustainable development of water transportation . However , any evaluation method is only a reflection of the objective state of the evaluation object , so the conclusion of different methods can have a certain correlation . The combination evaluation method combines many kinds of evaluation conclusions , and considers the evaluation information contained in the method with low correlation degree . The method comprehensively utilizes the evaluation information of the subjective method and the objective method , and can achieve better evaluation effect .

Based on the angle of development degree , coordination degree and degree of continuity , this paper constructs the evaluation index system of sustainable development of water transportation in Chongqing , and can analyze and evaluate the ability of sustainable development of Chongqing ' s water transportation in a timely manner .
Then the statistical data of 2003 - 2010 is selected , and the comprehensive evaluation method of the sustainable development degree of Chongqing Water Transportation 2003 - 2010 is obtained through the comprehensive evaluation method of rough set , analytic hierarchy process and grey correlation analysis , and then the weight of each evaluation method is determined by the combination evaluation method , and finally the final evaluation value is determined . The final evaluation result confirms the development achievements of Chongqing water transport in recent years .

Based on the weight of the three evaluation methods , rough set and grey correlation analysis are the objective evaluation methods based on the data itself . Therefore , the weight of rough set and grey relation evaluation method is not large in combination , and the subjective element of analytic hierarchy process is heavy , and the weight is relatively low .

From the evaluation results of sustainable development , the sustainable development capacity of Chongqing ' s water transportation is gradually increased , but only a weak sustainable level in 2003 . In 2010 , the sustainable development ability of Chongqing has reached the sustainable medium term . The rapid increase in sustainable development capacity of Chongqing ' s water transport is mainly attributed to three reasons :

On the one hand , it is the first time that the Three Gorges Reservoir reached 145 meters of water storage in 2007 , and reached 175 meters of water storage in 2009 . The 175 meters of water storage in the Three Gorges Project has raised the channel level of the Three Gorges Project from the original three levels to the first level .

On the other hand , the government has issued a series of preferential policies for the construction of the Yangtze River Gold Watercourse , the Upper Yangtze River Shipping Center , and also made clear arrangements for key projects such as the standardization of ships and bonded port areas . These policies have greatly improved the infrastructure and operating environment of Chongqing ' s water transport .

Finally , Chongqing management has strengthened the management of water transport enterprises . For example , in the area of personnel training , Chongqing Hong Kong Airlines has attached great importance to the training of internal personnel , and also attached great importance to the improvement of comprehensive quality and professional skills knowledge of water transport enterprises , and conducted multi - period related training with limited financial resources and material resources , and promoted the construction of the talent team of Chongqing shipping industry .
【学位授予单位】：成都理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F552

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