交通经济运行分析指标和方法研究

发布时间：2018-06-29 06:29

本文选题：交通经济运行分析 + 交通统计　；参考：《长安大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：交通经济运行分析工作开始于1998年,部印发《关于建立交通经济运行分析报告制度的通知》(交计发[1998]365号),主要是对公路建设投资完成情况、资金到位情况、贷款落实情况等开展分季度分析,以反映应对亚洲金融风暴、加快基础设施建设保证经济增长各项政策的实施效果。近年来,我国交通和经济事业得到快速发展,各级政府和部门对交通经济运行分析工作日益重视,对交通经济运行分析报告的水平要求也越来越高。交通经济运行分析是国家宏观经济运行分析的重要组成部分,是提升行业管理水平的重要手段,是行业科学民主决策的具体体现。进行交通经济运行分析工作,不仅有利于交通管理部门系统全面了解和掌握行业发展情况,及时发现行业发展的问题,准确把握行业发展态势并提出科学的发展对策,而且可以实现信息的连续性、系统性和完整性,可以提出更全面、更系统、更科学的发展对策。本文首先总结国内外现有的交通运输统计状况,然后依托我国现有的交通运输统计指标体系,根据河南省交通运输行业的发展特点,建立起一套多种类、多层次的交通经济运行分析指标体系,并与交通部确立的分析指标做对比分析,研究分析指标的来源。同时,依据交通经济运行分析的内容,提出评价分析、依存关系分析和动态分析等分析方法,并运用灰色系统预测理论,建立预测模型,对交通经济运行分析中的客运量、货运量、客运周转量和货运周转量等指标进行科学合理的预测。最后,本文结合河南省交通经济运行的特点,编制完成了河南省交通经济运行分析报告范本,并针对交通固定资产投资完成情况和运输生产情况两部分内容,编写2015年一季度河南省交通经济运行分析报告,以实例论证了本文提出的分析指标和方法的可行性和实用性。
[Abstract]:The work of traffic economic operation analysis began in 1998, and the Ministry issued the Circular on establishing the Traffic Economic Operation Analysis report system ([1998] 365), which mainly focused on the completion of investment in highway construction and the availability of funds. Quarterly analysis was carried out to reflect the implementation of policies to cope with the Asian financial turmoil and speed up infrastructure construction to ensure economic growth. In recent years, the traffic and economic undertakings in our country have been developed rapidly. Governments and departments at all levels pay more and more attention to the analysis of traffic economic operation, and the level of traffic economic operation analysis report is becoming more and more high. Traffic economic operation analysis is an important part of national macro-economic operation analysis, an important means to improve the level of industry management, and a concrete embodiment of scientific and democratic decision-making in the industry. The analysis of traffic economic operation is not only beneficial to the traffic management department to understand and grasp the development situation of the industry, but also to find out the problems of the industry development in time, to grasp the development situation of the industry accurately and to put forward the scientific development countermeasures. Moreover, it can realize the continuity, systematization and integrality of information, and put forward more comprehensive, systematic and scientific development countermeasures. This paper first summarizes the current situation of traffic and transportation statistics at home and abroad, and then, relying on the existing index system of traffic and transport statistics in China, and according to the characteristics of Henan Province's transportation industry, establishes a set of multi-species. The multi-level analysis index system of traffic economic operation is compared with the analysis index established by the Ministry of Communications, and the source of the analysis index is studied. At the same time, according to the content of traffic economic operation analysis, this paper puts forward some analytical methods, such as evaluation analysis, dependency analysis and dynamic analysis, and establishes a forecasting model by using the grey system forecasting theory to analyze the passenger traffic volume in the traffic economic operation analysis. The indexes of freight volume, passenger transport turnover and freight turnover are predicted scientifically and reasonably. Finally, according to the characteristics of Henan Province traffic economy operation, the paper compiles the model of Henan Province traffic economic operation analysis report, and aims at the traffic fixed assets investment completion and the transportation production situation two parts content. This paper compiles the analysis report of Henan Province traffic economy operation in the first quarter of 2015, and proves the feasibility and practicability of the analysis index and method put forward in this paper.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F512

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