我国内贸集装箱运输市场发展趋势研究

发布时间：2018-06-30 08:55

本文选题：内贸集装箱运输 + 回归预测　；参考：《大连海事大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国国民经济近年来快速、持续的发展,我国内贸集装箱运输业也取得了很大的进步,不管是运力投入量还是货物吞吐量都实现了高速的增长。尤其是2008年以来,虽然海运业整体上受到金融危机的影响经历了徘徊震荡,但是这并没有影响我国内贸集装箱运输前进的脚步,而是恰好为其发展提供了良好的机遇。基于这样的背景和原因,本文展开了对我国内贸集装箱运输市场的研究,希望对于内贸集装箱运输牢牢把握这一发展机遇,实现更好、更快的发展起到一定的指导意义。本文首先从货流的结构、特征、规模、方向四个方面分析了我国内贸集装箱运输的需求现状；从港口状况、船队运力、运输经营者及航线四个方面分析了我国内贸集装箱运输的供给现状；结合需求和供给状况分析了内贸集装箱的运价状况。然后,阐述了我国内贸集装箱的发展历程,并从政策、经济、社会和技术四个方面分析了内贸集装箱运输的发展环境。基于发展环境分析,文章给对内贸集装箱需求、供给和运价发展趋势进行了理论分析,并初步认为在未来一段时间内我国内贸集装箱运输市场供给和需求将基本维持平衡、运价呈平稳波动略有小幅上涨趋势。接着,运用回归预测和灰色预测相组合的方法,对未来一段时间内我国内贸集装箱吞吐量进行了科学预测。预测结果表明,在未来几年内我国内贸集装箱吞吐量将继续保持稳定、快速、良好的增长趋势。最后,结合以上定性分析和定量预测结果,提出了促进我国内贸集装箱运输市场积极发展的有关对策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid and continuous development of China's national economy in recent years, China's domestic container transport industry has also made great progress, both in terms of capacity input and cargo throughput to achieve a rapid growth. Especially since 2008, although the shipping industry has been affected by the financial crisis as a whole has experienced hovering shocks, but this does not affect the pace of China's domestic trade container transport, but just provide a good opportunity for its development. Based on this background and reasons, this paper studies the domestic container transport market in China, hoping to firmly grasp this development opportunity and achieve better and faster development of domestic trade container transport plays a certain guiding significance. This paper first analyzes the demand status of domestic trade container transportation from four aspects of the structure, characteristics, scale and direction of cargo flow, from the port status, fleet capacity, This paper analyzes the supply status of domestic trade container transportation in China from four aspects of transport operators and routes, and analyzes the shipping price status of domestic trade containers according to the demand and supply situation. Then, the development course of domestic trade container in China is expounded, and the development environment of domestic trade container transportation is analyzed from four aspects: policy, economy, society and technology. Based on the analysis of the development environment, the paper makes a theoretical analysis on the development trend of domestic container demand, supply and freight rate, and preliminarily thinks that the supply and demand of domestic trade container transportation market will basically maintain a balance in the future. Freight rates show steady fluctuations slightly up the trend. Then, the combination of regression forecast and grey forecast is used to predict the throughput of domestic trade container in the future. The forecast results show that China's domestic container throughput will continue to maintain a stable, rapid and good growth trend in the next few years. Finally, based on the above qualitative analysis and quantitative prediction results, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the positive development of China's domestic container transport market.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552

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