中国高速铁路客运建设项目国民经济评价关键参数选取研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 15:02

本文选题：高速铁路 + 国民经济评价　；参考：《北京交通大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：国民经济评价是对高速铁路客运建设项目进行经济评价的重要组成部分。目前针对我国大力开发的高铁建设项目,需要从国家经济发展角度出发,对高速铁路客运建设项目进行科学、全面、客观地国民经济评价,正确地分析现行高速铁路开通运行后的综合经济效益,所以,必须对国民经济评价参数进行分析研究。高速铁路客运建设项目国民经济评价涉及到的关键参数很多,而本文主要对影子价格、社会折现率、旅客运输时间价值、创造就业价值等主要国民经济评价参数的选取进行研究。在影子价格方面,采用国际市场法与成本分解法来计算建设材料的影子价格,同时考虑用土地的机会成本来计算土地的影子价格。对于社会折现率问题,本文运用系统分析的思想,提出求解折现率的综合方法。在旅客运输时间价值参数的估算上,本文分析了国内外目前采用的估算模型,针对现存方法的缺陷,采用将工作时间与休闲时间分类计算的方法来估算时间价值,使高铁客运节约时间的价值计算更加趋于合理。对于创造就业价值的估算参数问题,由于我国暂还没有系统的研究,因此本文采用相关数据分析及成果参照法,结合我国高铁运营后带来的就业方面相关的统计数据来估算。最后运用上述相关参数对JJ城际高速铁路进行国民经济后评价,结果表明本论文所提出的国民经济评价主要参数的模型及选定具有很好的理论和实践应用价值,不仅丰富了高速铁路客运建设项目国民经济评价理论方法,而且为交通部门进行项目建设及评价的科学决策提供了参考依据。
[Abstract]:National economic evaluation is an important part of economic evaluation of high-speed railway passenger transport construction project. At present, for the high-speed railway construction projects vigorously developed in China, it is necessary to carry out a scientific, comprehensive and objective national economic evaluation of the high-speed railway passenger transport construction projects from the point of view of the national economic development. The comprehensive economic benefit of the current high-speed railway is analyzed correctly, so the evaluation parameters of the national economy must be analyzed and studied. There are a lot of key parameters involved in the national economic evaluation of high-speed railway passenger transport construction project. However, this paper mainly deals with shadow price, social discount rate, passenger transport time value. The selection of main national economic evaluation parameters, such as creating employment value, is studied. In the aspect of shadow price, the international market method and cost decomposition method are used to calculate the shadow price of construction materials, and the opportunity cost of land is considered to calculate the shadow price of land. For the problem of social discount rate, this paper puts forward a comprehensive method to solve the problem of social discount rate by using the idea of systematic analysis. In the estimation of time value parameters of passenger transport, this paper analyzes the estimation models used at home and abroad, aiming at the defects of the existing methods, the method of classifying working time and leisure time is used to estimate the time value. Make the value calculation of saving time of high-speed passenger transport more reasonable. As there is no systematic research on the estimation parameters of the value of employment in China, this paper uses the method of data analysis and reference to the results, combined with the related statistical data of employment after the operation of high-speed rail in China. Finally, the national economic post-evaluation of JJ intercity high-speed railway is carried out by using the above parameters. The results show that the model and selection of the main parameters of the national economic evaluation presented in this paper have good theoretical and practical application value. It not only enriches the theory and method of national economic evaluation of high-speed railway passenger transport construction project, but also provides a reference for the scientific decision of project construction and evaluation in traffic department.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F282;F532;F224

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