基于误差修正模型的散货船价格研究

发布时间：2018-07-07 17:17

本文选题：散货船市场 + 散货船价格　；参考：《江苏科技大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，散货船市场得到快速发展并逐渐占据了世界新造船市场的主导地位，散货船也成为众多特别是中国的船东与投资者的投资对象。然而，随着大量新船的交付和相关市场因素的变动，散货船市场的未来发展也呈现很多不确定性。因此，对于散货船的新造船价格与二手船价格波动的研究就显得十分必要。本文首先分析了国际散货船行业的特点，发展现状和未来的市场发展趋势。在对国际散货船市场的分析和对引起散货船价格（包括新造船价格与二手船价格）波动各因素（如造船成本、汇率、利率、船舶供应量等）的分析基础上，运用协整和误差修正模型（ECM）的理论分别建立了散货船新造船价格和二手船价格模型。其次，论文对散货船的四大船型（灵便型、大灵便型、巴拿马型和好望角型）的价格变动趋势分别做了分析，并得出其短期波动和长期波动的影响因素和影响的弹性系数。结论表明，虽然四种散货船型市场影响因素存在异质性，，但是从总体上看，散货船新造船价格受成本驱动而二手船价格受市场驱动。最后，论文对文中运用的协整和误差修正模型进行了诊断检验和模拟预测。在得出模型准确的基础上，文章提出了一种可供船舶投资者投资决策的工具和对投资风险的控制方法和建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the bulk carrier market has developed rapidly and has gradually occupied the leading position of the new shipbuilding market in the world. Bulk carrier has also become the investment object of many Chinese shipowners and investors. However, with the delivery of a large number of new ships and changes in the related market factors, the future development of the bulk carrier market also presents a lot of uncertainty. Therefore, it is necessary to study the price of the new ship and the fluctuation of the price of the second-hand ship.
This paper first analyzes the characteristics, development status and future market trend of the international bulk carrier industry. On the basis of the analysis of the international bulk carrier market and the analysis of the factors causing the volatility of the bulk cargo (including the new shipbuilding price and the second-hand ship price), on the basis of the analysis of the shipbuilding cost, the exchange rate, the rate of profit, the supply of ships, etc. The theory of error correction model (ECM) establishes the new shipbuilding price and the second-hand ship price model of bulk carriers respectively.
Secondly, the paper analyzes the price changes of the four types of bulk cargo ships (such as handy type, great spirit type, Panama type and Cape of Good Hope type), and obtains the influence factors and the elastic coefficient of the short-term fluctuation and long-term fluctuation. The conclusion shows that although the influence factors of the four kinds of freighter market are heterogeneous, they are from the whole As a matter of fact, the price of new bulk carriers is driven by cost and the price of second-hand ships is driven by the market.
Finally, the paper makes a diagnostic test and a simulation prediction for the Cointegration and error correction model used in the paper. On the basis of the accuracy of the model, the paper puts forward a tool for the investment decision of the ship investors and the control methods and suggestions for the investment risk.
【学位授予单位】：江苏科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F550.5;F224

【引证文献】