哈尔滨市地铁工程项目经济评价研究

发布时间：2018-07-22 10:39

【摘要】：随着哈尔滨市城市规模的不断扩大,城市的交通系统面临着日益严峻的挑战。同时,道路汽车的废气、噪声等给环境的带来的污染也越来越严重。而城市地铁交通具有速度快、效率高、污染小、运量大的优势,如今已成为哈尔滨市交通发展的新方向。但是,由于地铁项目投资巨大,建设周期长,为了保证其顺利建成并运营,有必要事先对其进行全面的经济评价,对降低项目投资风险,提高投资收益水平具有重要促进作用。本文首先采纳公共产品理论、外部性理论、福利经济学理论、循环经济与可持续发展理论之长,考察国内外关于公共项目经济效益评价的经验和方法；其次以哈尔滨市地铁一期工程项目的数据分析为支撑,明确了对其进行经济评价时应遵循的指导思想与原则,并在此基础上构建了哈尔滨市地铁项目经济效益评价体系,此体系不仅包括了传统意义上的财务评价和国民经济评价,还囊括了项目产生的社会效益和生态效益,做到了科学而全面的分析；再次运用了财务净现值、财务内部收益率、借款偿还期等财务评价指标对地铁项目的盈利能力和清偿能力进行评价,得出项目从财务角度考虑是可行的结论；最后运用经济净现值、经济内部收益率等国民经济指标对项目进行国民经济评价与分析,计算了包括诱发客流效益、提高运输质量效益、运输时间节约效益、替代地面交通节约投资运营费用的效益、减少交通事故效益在内的可量化的效益,并对其产生的社会和生态效益等不可量化的效益进行了定性分析与评价,最终得出的结论是项目从国民经济角度考虑是可以被接受的。同时.敏感性分析也表明项目艮有一定得抗风险能力。
[Abstract]:With the expansion of Harbin's urban scale, the urban transportation system is facing more and more serious challenges. At the same time, the environmental pollution caused by the exhaust gas and noise of road vehicles is becoming more and more serious. The urban subway traffic has the advantages of fast speed, high efficiency, small pollution, large volume of transportation, and has become a new direction of traffic development in Harbin. However, due to the huge investment and long construction period, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive economic evaluation in advance to reduce the investment risk and improve the investment income level in order to ensure its smooth completion and operation. In this paper, we first adopt the theories of public goods, externality, welfare economics, circular economy and sustainable development, and investigate the experience and methods of economic benefit evaluation of public projects at home and abroad. Secondly, based on the data analysis of the first stage of Harbin Metro Project, the guiding ideology and principle of economic evaluation are defined, and the economic benefit evaluation system of Harbin Metro Project is constructed. This system not only includes the traditional financial evaluation and national economic evaluation, but also includes the social and ecological benefits of the project, and makes scientific and comprehensive analysis. The financial evaluation index, such as loan repayment period, evaluates the profitability and solvency of the subway project, and draws the conclusion that the project is feasible from the financial point of view; finally, using the economic net present value, The national economic indexes, such as economic internal rate of return, are used to evaluate and analyze the national economy of the project, and the benefits of inducing passenger flow, improving transportation quality, saving transportation time, replacing ground transportation saving investment and operating expenses are calculated. The quantifiable benefits, including the benefits of traffic accidents, are reduced, and the non-quantifiable benefits such as social and ecological benefits are qualitatively analyzed and evaluated. The final conclusion is that the project can be accepted from the point of view of national economy. meanwhile Sensitivity analysis also shows that project Gen has a certain ability to resist risk.
【学位授予单位】：东北林业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F282;F572.88;F224

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