基于集对分析法的港口环境承载力评价研究

发布时间：2018-08-09 13:01

【摘要】：随着我国经济的快速增长和国际贸易量的增加,我国航运和港口的需求越来越大,港口规也在不断扩大,港口环境问题逐步显现。近年来,港口生态环境逐渐恶化,港口周边与城市交叉区域交通拥堵严重,港口与城市在发展过程中土地需求存在冲突等问题也都越来越受到港口管理者及相关学者的重视。港口环境容纳能力的大小和可持续发展水平将直接影响到港口未来的发展,因此,研究我国港口的环境承载能力至关重要。本文在借鉴其他学者研究成果的基础上,归纳总结并进一步提出港口环境承载力的概念,即广义的港口环境承载力,此处的“环境”既包括港口自然生态系统还包括社会经济子系统等；简要分析我国沿海主要港口的发展现状,提出当前我国港口存在的环境问题；结合这些现存问题,从港口环境的现状、压力的来源和如何承受压力几个方面,分析影响港口发展的主要影响因素,并建立港口环境承载力的评价指标体系,确定各指标的取值方法,建立集对分析——熵权法评价模型；最后选择我国主要的港口即大连港、天津港、青岛港、上海港、宁波——舟山港和广州港作为本文的评价对象,评价各港口环境承载力大小,并预测当前环境承载能力下的港口最大吞吐量。评价结果显示：我国主要的沿海港口中上海港的环境承载能力最大,其次是宁波——舟山港、最差的是青岛港,且通过结果稳定性能分析,本文的评价结果具有绝对稳定性；就港口的单位环境承载力而言,上海港和广州港具有较大优势,大连港次之,宁波——舟山港的单位环境承载力最小。本文将集对分析的方法引入到港口环境承载力的评价中来,经验证具有较好的稳定性,取得了较为满意的评价结果。本文在研究港口环境承载能力的基础上,在各港口现有环境承载力水平下,预测各港口的最大吞吐能力,为绿色港口的建设和可持续发展提供了一定的理论依据。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of China's economy and the increase of international trade, the demand for shipping and ports in China is increasing, port regulations are also expanding, and port environmental problems are gradually emerging. In recent years, the ecological environment of the port has gradually deteriorated, the traffic congestion between the port periphery and the city crossing area is serious, and the problems such as the conflict of the land demand between the port and the city in the process of development have been paid more and more attention by the port managers and related scholars. The capacity of the port environment and the level of sustainable development will directly affect the future development of the port. Therefore, it is very important to study the environmental bearing capacity of the port in China. Based on the research results of other scholars, this paper summarizes and further puts forward the concept of port environmental carrying capacity, that is, the broad concept of port environmental bearing capacity. The "environment" here includes not only the natural ecosystem of the port but also the social and economic subsystem, etc. It briefly analyzes the present situation of the development of the main ports along the coast of our country, puts forward the environmental problems existing in the ports of our country at present, and combines these existing problems. From the current situation of port environment, the source of pressure and how to bear the pressure, this paper analyzes the main influencing factors of port development, establishes the evaluation index system of port environmental carrying capacity, and determines the method of selecting the value of each index. The evaluation model of set pair analysis-entropy weight method is established, and the main ports in China, namely Dalian Port, Tianjin Port, Qingdao Port, Shanghai Port, Ningbo Zhoushan Port and Guangzhou Port, are selected as the evaluation objects. The environmental carrying capacity of each port is evaluated and the maximum throughput of the port under the current environmental carrying capacity is predicted. The evaluation results show that the environmental carrying capacity of Shanghai Port is the largest, followed by Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, and Qingdao Port is the worst among the main coastal ports in China, and through the stability performance analysis of the results, the evaluation results of this paper have absolute stability; As far as the unit environmental carrying capacity of the port is concerned, Shanghai Port and Guangzhou Port have great advantages, Dalian Port takes the second place, and Ningbo Zhoushan Port has the smallest unit environmental carrying capacity. In this paper, the method of set pair analysis is introduced to the evaluation of port environmental carrying capacity. It is proved that it has good stability and satisfactory evaluation results have been obtained. Based on the study of the carrying capacity of the port environment, this paper predicts the maximum throughput capacity of each port under the existing environmental carrying capacity of each port, which provides a certain theoretical basis for the construction and sustainable development of the green port.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F552;F224

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