一体化背景下京津冀交通与经济协调发展评价研究

发布时间：2018-08-10 20:27

【摘要】：交通与经济发展之间存在着紧密的相互作用关系,二者的协调有利于系统资源的合理配置和系统整体发展的最优化。当前京津冀地区正着力推进区域交通与经济的一体化进程,而京津冀地区交通与经济的协调发展不仅是一体化发展的保障,也是一体化进程的必要阶段。基于此背景,本文以京津冀地区交通和经济发展的差异性为切入点,综合运用系统工程的理论与方法,采取定性与定量相结合的技术手段,主要开展了以下研究：(1)结合对国内外研究进展的系统梳理,首先对本文研究的内容进行了界定和论证；再以系统理论、需求理论、适应性理论为基础,分析了交通与经济之间相互作用的机理及一体化背景下交通与经济协调发展的内涵。(2)在系统影响因素分析的基础上,通过定量和定性的筛选过程,从总量、结构、效益、增速四个维度分别对交通与经济系统建立了评价指标体系；计算得到了各指标的标准化值,并用层次分析法和熵值法确定了指标权重；构建了主成分分析法模型和综合函数法模型对交通与经济各系统的发展水平指数进行了定量计算。(3)构建了系统协调发展评价的系列模型：首先基于变异系数构建了交通与经济系统间的协调度模型,并根据京津冀地区的实际情况予以改进；又引进了协调发展度和协调发展趋势的概念,设计了对协调性评价结果的描述标准；还结合京津冀地区的需要,构建了多系统间的协调度模型。本文基于木桶理论设计了相关分析和差异分析方法,结合模型评价结果提出了京津冀地区交通与经济协调发展的对策措施。
[Abstract]:There is a close interaction between transportation and economic development. The coordination of the two is conducive to the rational allocation of system resources and the optimization of the overall development of the system. At present, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is pushing forward the integration process of regional traffic and economy, and the coordinated development of traffic and economy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is not only the guarantee of the integration development, but also the necessary stage of the integration process. Based on this background, this paper takes the difference of traffic and economic development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the breakthrough point, synthetically applies the theory and method of system engineering, and adopts the technical means of combining qualitative and quantitative. The main research is as follows: (1) combined with the systematic analysis of domestic and foreign research progress, firstly, the content of this paper is defined and demonstrated, and then based on the system theory, demand theory, adaptability theory. The mechanism of interaction between traffic and economy and the connotation of coordinated development of traffic and economy under the background of integration are analyzed. (2) based on the analysis of system influencing factors, through the quantitative and qualitative screening process, from the total amount, structure, benefit, The four dimensions of growth rate have established the evaluation index system of traffic and economic system, calculated the standardized values of each index, and determined the index weight by AHP and entropy method. The principal component analysis (PCA) model and the comprehensive function method model are constructed to calculate quantitatively the development level index of the traffic and economic systems. (3) A series of models for evaluating the coordinated development of the system are constructed: firstly, based on the coefficient of variation, the model is constructed. The degree of coordination model between transportation and economic system, According to the actual situation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the author introduces the concepts of coordinated development degree and coordinated development trend, designs the description criteria for the evaluation results of coordination, and combines with the needs of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. A multi-system coordination model is constructed. Based on the bucket theory, this paper designs the methods of correlation analysis and difference analysis, and puts forward the countermeasures for the coordinated development of traffic and economy in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F127;F512.7

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