航空运输业演化研究

发布时间：2018-08-16 11:48

【摘要】：航空运输业的历史已近百年。从最初少数人“能负担”的交通方式,到成为我们出行的基本选择。航空运输业百年的历史中,呈现了独特的演变历程。从产业政策看,主要航空运输大国基本从发展初期的严格管制到辅以反垄断监管的放松管制,国际航空运输由严格的双边协定体制到“天空开放”和区域航空一体化。从依托的主要生产工具看,从活塞螺旋桨飞机到喷气式飞机再到大型化、高速化新一代运输飞机的出现。从企业组织形式和产业发展看,从运营简单的点对点航线的航空公司,到运营中枢轮辐射式航线网络的航空公司占主导,再到运营点对点航线的低成本航空公司再度兴起,以及航空公司跨国联盟的形成。通过对航空运输业演变历程中繁杂表现的梳理,剥离出其内的演化机制,用规范的经济学方法给予解释,既可从理论上丰富产业经济学的研究方法,对正处于快速发展期的中国航空运输业,如何及时调整政策,也可以提供理论上的支持。论文以演化经济学分析方法为主要工具,融合产业组织理论和运输经济学研究成果,从历史、动态的视角剖析航空运输演化的内在机制。首先,论文梳理了经济学发展过程的演化思想与演化经济学的形成发展,总结了演化经济学分析的基本理论范式；对产业组织研究中演化分析方法的应用进行了跟踪,提出演化动力机制、产业演化路径选择机制和产业演化的刻画与描述是产业演化研究的主要内容；在对运输经济学的学术研究框架进行归纳的基础上识别了运输经济学不同于其他产业的技术经济特点。第二,在以上研究基础上,论文构建了航空运输业的演化模型。论文认为航空运输产品、资源、网络经济的特殊性恰是航空运输业区别于其他产业的技术经济特点,是其演化的基本“遗传”信息,而航线网络是这些“遗传”信息的载体,是航空运输业演化中的基因对应物。航空运输业发展过程中,需求、技术和制度则构成了航空运输演化的外部制约与选择环境。航空运输业的演化是基于环境的变化,航空公司根据自身资源,通过网络调整,以有效方式提供满足需求的产品的过程。航空运输业的演化过程中,需求是产业演化的基础,技术创新是基础性的推动力量,需求变化与技术创新提供了制度创新和产业系统累积式变迁的根本诱因、基础平台和渐进动力；而制度变迁则为系统激进式变迁提供了激励结构以及航空公司组织惯例突变的内生机制和外部压力,是航空运输业演化的关键。需求、技术与制度的变化通过影响航空运输业的产品、资源和网络经济性,带来了机会集合的变化。航空公司在变化的环境中,通过组织的创新,提供满足需求的产品,取得比较优势,实现组织生存与壮大。航空运输业产业演化过程也是学习和知识累积过程。在与环境的动态适应过程中,缺乏生命力的组织形式被逐步放弃和退化,更有效的组织形式被保留、发展并被模仿,适应、学习与模仿结果的宏观涌现最终表现为航空运输业的产业演化,也即居主导地位的不同运营模式航空公司的出现和变化。第三,为了进一步论证模型的有效性,论文从理论和实证方面对模型进行了多角度的检验。从理论上分析航空运输产品的异质性与航空公司运营模式的内在联系,证明了需求是航空运输业演化的基础,提供满足需求的产品是航空运输业演化的最终结果与表现。考察了美国航空运输业的演化历程,着重分析了需求、技术变化对美国航空运输制度变迁的影响及制度变迁的实现,从航空公司视角着重分析了环境变化后航空公司构建中枢轮辐式航线网络的动因与航空公司采取的行动,通过一个简单的“价格挤压”模型分析了技术发展对航空公司的影响。此外,通过论文构建的演化模型证明,国际航空运输业中制度安排的变化、资源的约束、全球化的航空运输需求,使得在国际航空运输中航空公司通过战略联盟构建全球网络成为理性的选择。第四,论文分析了我国航空运输业的演化。论文研究建立的演化模型对中国航空运输业二十年的演化过程也给予了很好的解释。现阶段中国航空运输业在快速发展的同时,出现了航空公司运营模式的同质化,航空运输产品供给的多样性不足等问题,空域、机场、专业人员等资源制约和制度环境的不适应开始凸现。最后,论文基于研究结论对中国航空运输业的发展从优化演化环境角度提出了政策建议。我国航空运输业已进入了制度变革的机遇期,建议进行更趋向自由化的制度安排调整,以产品多样化来提升我国航空运输业产业结构的高度化。形成行业管理部门与国家相关部门的有效配合机制,鼓励技术创新和优化制度环境,提高航空运输业发展的资源丰裕度。行业管理思路要从单纯注重行业发展,转向注重行业发展与消费者利益并重。同时,在放松经济规制的同时,要完善反垄断监管,维护市场的竞争格局,确保经济的自然选择对产业演化发展的正向作用。
[Abstract]:The air transport industry has a history of nearly one hundred years. From the initial "affordable" mode of transportation for a few people to the basic choice of our trip, the air transport industry has shown a unique evolution in the past century. From the perspective of industrial policy, the major air transport countries have basically changed from the strict control in the early stage of development to the liberalization of anti-monopoly supervision. Loose control, international air transport from a strict bilateral agreement system to the "open sky" and regional aviation integration. Relying on the main tools of production, from the piston propeller aircraft to jet aircraft to large-scale, high-speed new generation of transport aircraft. The airlines on point-to-point routes, the airlines operating hub-to-point routes, the low-cost airlines on point-to-point routes, and the formation of transnational alliances of airlines are dominant. Economic methods can not only enrich the research methods of industrial economics in theory, but also provide theoretical support for the rapid development of China's air transport industry.
This paper takes evolutionary economics as the main tool, combines the theory of industrial organization and the research results of transport economics, and analyzes the internal mechanism of the evolution of air transport from a historical and dynamic perspective.
Firstly, the paper combs the evolutionary thought of the development process of economics and the formation and development of evolutionary economics, summarizes the basic theoretical paradigm of evolutionary economics analysis, traces the application of evolutionary analysis method in the study of industrial organization, puts forward the evolutionary dynamic mechanism, the mechanism of choosing the path of industrial evolution and the description and description of industrial evolution. Description is the main content of the research on industrial evolution, and on the basis of summarizing the academic research framework of transport economics, this paper identifies the technical and economic characteristics of transport economics which are different from other industries.
Secondly, on the basis of the above research, the paper constructs the evolution model of the air transport industry. The particularity of the air transport products, resources and network economy is just the technical and economic characteristics that distinguish the air transport industry from other industries. It is the basic "genetic" information of its evolution, and the route network is the carrier of these "genetic" information. In the process of the development of air transport industry, demand, technology and system constitute the external constraints and selection environment of the evolution of air transport.
The evolution of air transport industry is based on the change of environment, and airlines provide the products satisfying the demand effectively through network adjustment according to their own resources. In the evolution of air transport industry, demand is the basis of industry evolution, technological innovation is the basic driving force, and demand change and technological innovation provide the system. The fundamental incentives, basic platforms and progressive motives for innovation and cumulative changes in the industrial system, while institutional changes provide an incentive structure for systematic radical changes, as well as an endogenous mechanism and external pressure for the sudden change of airline organizational practices, which are the key to the evolution of the air transport industry. The product, resource and network economy of the transportation industry bring about the change of opportunity set. In the changing environment, the airlines provide the products satisfying the demand through organizational innovation, obtain comparative advantage, and realize the survival and growth of the organization. The evolution of the aviation industry is also a process of learning and knowledge accumulation. In the process, the lack of vitality of the organizational form is gradually abandoned and degenerated, more effective organizational form is retained, developed and imitated, adapted, learning and simulation results of the macro-emergence of the final performance of the air transport industry evolution, that is, the emergence and change of the dominant mode of operation airlines.
Thirdly, in order to further demonstrate the validity of the model, the paper examines the model from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Theoretically, the heterogeneity of air transport products and the inherent relationship between the airline operation mode are analyzed, and it is proved that demand is the basis of the evolution of air transport industry, and the provision of products to meet the demand is the air transport industry. The final result and performance of the evolution of the U.S. air transport industry are investigated. The impact of demand and technological change on the institutional change of the U.S. air transport and the realization of institutional change are analyzed. The motivation of airlines to construct hub-and-spoke airline network after environmental change and airlines are analyzed from the perspective of airlines. In addition, an evolutionary model constructed in this paper proves that changes in institutional arrangements, resource constraints, and global air transport demand in the international air transport industry have enabled airlines to pass the war in international air transport. The alliance has become a rational choice to build a global network.
Fourthly, this paper analyzes the evolution of China's air transport industry. The evolution model established in this paper also gives a good explanation to the evolution process of China's air transport industry in the past 20 years. Such problems as lack of space, airports, professionals and other resource constraints and institutional environment are beginning to emerge.
Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, the paper puts forward policy suggestions for the development of China's air transport industry from the perspective of optimizing the evolutionary environment. The effective cooperation mechanism between the administrative departments of the industry and the relevant departments of the State shall encourage technological innovation and optimize the institutional environment so as to improve the resource abundance of the development of the air transport industry. Monopoly supervision can safeguard the competition pattern of the market and ensure the positive effect of the natural selection of the economy on the evolution and development of the industry.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F562

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