道路交通和城市化进程对汽车产业的影响分析
发布时间：2018-08-16 15:26
【摘要】：本文致力于道路交通和城市化进程对汽车产业的影响研究,先定性分析道路交通和城市化进程的基本特点,探讨道路交通、城市进程跟汽车产业之间的关系,同时提炼出对汽车产业影响的量化因子,定量估算未来乘用车、商用车及汽车总销量,最后提出应对措施,并为汽车产业规划部门提供未来汽车发展数据。 本文通过查阅国内外有关资料,了解道路交通、城市化进程、汽车产业的研究现状和研究基本内容,利用个案研究法、经验总结法、国内外对比法、等找出它们之间的关联点,进行道路交通、城市化进程跟汽车产业之间关系的定性研究,然后结合我国具体国情就关联点提出解决现状问题的有效措施。 本文利用matlab软件实现BP神经网络预测,利用spss软件进行多元回归线性预测,以历史数据为检测依据,判断所建模型的可行性,并对汽车5～10年末汽车总销量、乘用车、商用车销量进行了定量预测。其模型参数即道路交通和城市化进程对汽车销量的影响因素包括城镇人口数、城镇居民人均可支配收入、城市化率、城市年末实有道路长度、城市年末实有道路面积、公路里程。经精度检验,两种模型均可行,BP神经网络相对误差更小些。
[Abstract]:This paper is devoted to the study of the influence of road traffic and urbanization on the automobile industry. Firstly, it qualitatively analyzes the basic characteristics of road traffic and urbanization, and discusses the relationship between road traffic, urban process and automobile industry. At the same time, the quantitative factors affecting the automobile industry are extracted, and the future passenger, commercial and automobile sales volume is estimated quantitatively. Finally, the countermeasures are put forward, and the future automobile development data are provided for the automobile industry planning department. In this paper, by consulting the relevant information at home and abroad, we can find out the relationship between road traffic, urbanization process, automobile industry research status and basic contents, using case study, experience summarization, domestic and foreign comparative methods, etc. The relationship between road traffic, urbanization process and automobile industry is studied qualitatively, and then the effective measures to solve the current situation are put forward according to the actual situation of our country. In this paper, BP neural network prediction is realized by matlab software, multivariate regression linear prediction is carried out by spss software, and the feasibility of the model is judged based on historical data. The volume of commercial vehicles was forecast quantitatively. The model parameters, that is, road traffic and the process of urbanization, affect the sales of cars, including the number of urban population, the per capita disposable income of urban residents, the urbanization rate, the length of roads in cities at the end of the year, and the area of roads in cities at the end of the year. Road mileage The relative error of BP neural network is smaller than that of BP neural network.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F426.471;F512.3
本文编号：2186389
[Abstract]:This paper is devoted to the study of the influence of road traffic and urbanization on the automobile industry. Firstly, it qualitatively analyzes the basic characteristics of road traffic and urbanization, and discusses the relationship between road traffic, urban process and automobile industry. At the same time, the quantitative factors affecting the automobile industry are extracted, and the future passenger, commercial and automobile sales volume is estimated quantitatively. Finally, the countermeasures are put forward, and the future automobile development data are provided for the automobile industry planning department. In this paper, by consulting the relevant information at home and abroad, we can find out the relationship between road traffic, urbanization process, automobile industry research status and basic contents, using case study, experience summarization, domestic and foreign comparative methods, etc. The relationship between road traffic, urbanization process and automobile industry is studied qualitatively, and then the effective measures to solve the current situation are put forward according to the actual situation of our country. In this paper, BP neural network prediction is realized by matlab software, multivariate regression linear prediction is carried out by spss software, and the feasibility of the model is judged based on historical data. The volume of commercial vehicles was forecast quantitatively. The model parameters, that is, road traffic and the process of urbanization, affect the sales of cars, including the number of urban population, the per capita disposable income of urban residents, the urbanization rate, the length of roads in cities at the end of the year, and the area of roads in cities at the end of the year. Road mileage The relative error of BP neural network is smaller than that of BP neural network.
【学位授予单位】：合肥工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F426.471;F512.3
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