我国海上原油运输通道运量分配优化研究

发布时间：2018-08-16 16:53

【摘要】：以石油为主的传统能源深刻影响着世界经济发展,能源安全也越来越受到各国关注。我国是世界第二大石油消费国,也是世界石油进口量增长最快的国家。2011年我国石油消费量453.7百万吨,进口量253.8百万吨,对外依存度达55.3%。进口地主要集中在中东、非洲、南美洲及俄罗斯等地,其中从中东、非洲及南美洲地区进口的石油量占我国总进口量的70%,这些地区的进口石油主要通过海上运输完成。由此可见,维护海上能源运输通道的通畅性与安全性对我国能源的战略安全具有重要意义。随着我国对进口能源的依赖性,尤其是进口原油的依赖性,进口能源地集中、国内船舶承运份额低、运输通道依赖性强等一系列因素对我国海上原油运输通道安全的影响也越来越大。本文以我国海上原油运输通道为研究对象,在论述我国原油主要进口国及海上运输通道的基础上,从人—机—环境的角度分析了我国海上原油运输通道的影响因素。对海上原油运输通道安全性潜在的威胁从能源供应国、世界大国影响、海上通航环境及国家对船队的控制力等角度进行分析,并利用模糊综合评判法对进口原油的主要海上运输通道的风险性进行评价。基于海上运输通道的安全性,本文从船队-航线角度建立海上原油运输通道运量分配优化模型,考虑承运份额在海上能源通道安全中的影响,利用遗传算法计算各条航线的运量分配情况,并进行实例研究,针对前文的分析对我国海上能源运输通道安全性提出相应的对策建议。
[Abstract]:Petroleum-based traditional energy has a profound impact on the development of the world economy, and energy security has attracted more and more attention. China is the world's second largest oil consumer and the fastest growing country in oil imports. In 2011, China's oil consumption was 453.7 million tons, import volume was 253.8 million tons, and its external dependence reached 55.3 million tons. The imports are mainly from the Middle East, Africa, South America and Russia, among which the oil imports from the Middle East, Africa and South America account for 70% of the total import volume of China, and the oil imports from these regions are mainly completed by sea transportation. It can be seen that it is of great significance to maintain the flow and safety of offshore energy transportation channels for China's energy strategic safety. With the dependence of our country on imported energy sources, especially the dependence of imported crude oil, and the concentration of imported energy sources, the share of domestic shipping is low. A series of factors, such as strong dependence of transportation channels, have more and more influence on the safety of crude oil transportation channels in China. Based on the discussion of the main importing countries of crude oil and the marine transportation channels in China, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of China's crude oil transportation channels from the point of view of man-machine-environment. The potential threats to the safety of crude oil transportation channels at sea are analyzed from the perspectives of energy suppliers, the influence of world powers, the maritime navigation environment and the state's control over the fleet. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the risk of the main marine transportation channels of imported crude oil. Based on the safety of marine transportation channels, this paper establishes an optimal model for the distribution of crude oil transportation channels from the perspective of flotilla and route, considering the influence of transportation share on the safety of offshore energy channels. Genetic algorithm is used to calculate the traffic distribution of each route, and a case study is carried out. According to the above analysis, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the safety of marine energy transportation channels in China.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：U695.28

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